So, after an amazingly successful run, bettor2win's RPI system is being shut down until next season. Reason being, at this late point in the season, crazy things start happening making the predictability of very good teams beating very bad teams more often than very bad teams beating very good teams no longer reliable enough to depend on for a chase, especially with high juice. Thanks again b2w, can't wait until next season for another run.
Anyway, I got to wondering if there is any way to systematically take advantage of the craziness that starts happening around this time. Frankly, I have no idea, but here's the idea I'm going to try just to see if there's anything to it. I don't advise putting any money on it until it starts to become evident whether it'll be good or not based on results, which I will try to track here.
My idea is that one thing that happens late in the year is that after such a long grind teams are less able to deal with injuries to their roster. I'm going to look at matchups in which one team has 3 or more additional players on their injured list than their opponent at the beginning of a series and chase the oppposing team to win at least one game. I'm looking for odds of -120 or better, without getting too greedy. So, if the team is the favorite by greater than -120, I'll go ahead and use run line, If on the other hand the team is such an underdog that I can bet +1.5 on the run line and still get better than -120 odds then I'll do that. So here are the first picks:
Fla +103
Oak +108
Cin +136
KC +163
CWS (-1.5) +115
Col +139
Cubs (+1.5) -115
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
So, after an amazingly successful run, bettor2win's RPI system is being shut down until next season. Reason being, at this late point in the season, crazy things start happening making the predictability of very good teams beating very bad teams more often than very bad teams beating very good teams no longer reliable enough to depend on for a chase, especially with high juice. Thanks again b2w, can't wait until next season for another run.
Anyway, I got to wondering if there is any way to systematically take advantage of the craziness that starts happening around this time. Frankly, I have no idea, but here's the idea I'm going to try just to see if there's anything to it. I don't advise putting any money on it until it starts to become evident whether it'll be good or not based on results, which I will try to track here.
My idea is that one thing that happens late in the year is that after such a long grind teams are less able to deal with injuries to their roster. I'm going to look at matchups in which one team has 3 or more additional players on their injured list than their opponent at the beginning of a series and chase the oppposing team to win at least one game. I'm looking for odds of -120 or better, without getting too greedy. So, if the team is the favorite by greater than -120, I'll go ahead and use run line, If on the other hand the team is such an underdog that I can bet +1.5 on the run line and still get better than -120 odds then I'll do that. So here are the first picks:
OK, after one day some notes and observations. As I tried to make clear, I'm not putting any money on this yet and don't advise anyone else to either, it's a work in progress based on an idea I had that may or may not ever amount to anything.
After some thought I'm revising the criteria slightly. If one team has 5 or more players listed on their injured list at the start of a series AND they have 3 or more additional players on their injured list than their opponent, chase the opposing team to win at least one of the first 3 games. I think this makes sense since if a team has, for instance, 3 players listed and the other team has none, well, 3 players is not really that many injuries to deal with and may not make enough of a difference. Also, I'm not putting an upper limit on odds, so no +1.5 run line. Note that Florida would not have qualified under this revised criteria. Also Colorado never qualified to begin with, that was just a mistake on my part, I don't know what I was looking at. I'll be more careful in the future not to make screwups like that since I really would like to keep a proper record just in case this turns out to be a worthwhile system in the future. So, day one results using the revised criteria would have been:
Oak +108 A game loss
Cin +136 A game loss
KC +163 A game win
CWS (-1.5) +115 A game win
Cubs +210 A game win
Tomorrow's "plays" (I'm not putting money on this yet):
Oak B
Cin B
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OK, after one day some notes and observations. As I tried to make clear, I'm not putting any money on this yet and don't advise anyone else to either, it's a work in progress based on an idea I had that may or may not ever amount to anything.
After some thought I'm revising the criteria slightly. If one team has 5 or more players listed on their injured list at the start of a series AND they have 3 or more additional players on their injured list than their opponent, chase the opposing team to win at least one of the first 3 games. I think this makes sense since if a team has, for instance, 3 players listed and the other team has none, well, 3 players is not really that many injuries to deal with and may not make enough of a difference. Also, I'm not putting an upper limit on odds, so no +1.5 run line. Note that Florida would not have qualified under this revised criteria. Also Colorado never qualified to begin with, that was just a mistake on my part, I don't know what I was looking at. I'll be more careful in the future not to make screwups like that since I really would like to keep a proper record just in case this turns out to be a worthwhile system in the future. So, day one results using the revised criteria would have been:
Oak +108 A game loss
Cin +136 A game loss
KC +163 A game win
CWS (-1.5) +115 A game win
Cubs +210 A game win
Tomorrow's "plays" (I'm not putting money on this yet):
B games were both losers, I'll see how the C games turn out and make a decision about whether to bother continuing with it or go back to the drawing board.
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B games were both losers, I'll see how the C games turn out and make a decision about whether to bother continuing with it or go back to the drawing board.
Both games C losses. The series could have been wins by using +1.5 run line, but then the juice gets bad which ruins the thing I would have liked about this. Oh well, back to the drawing board I guess.
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Both games C losses. The series could have been wins by using +1.5 run line, but then the juice gets bad which ruins the thing I would have liked about this. Oh well, back to the drawing board I guess.
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