I was going through the forum today and looking at chases and it hit me that we rarely see chases on a total. I understand that there is more variability on a total than there is on picking a side, but there should still be value in a chase system on totals I would think.
My initial thought was to target bad pitchers or pitchers in bad situations on the over, but you may only be able to target one guy on a team and have to spread out chasing him over 3 weeks, which makes no sense. I figured why not see how chasing the under when good teams match up in a series. When both teams are over .500 in a 3+ game series, the under would be 792-102 since 2011 (just threw in a random year to be able to backtrack). If you raise the requirement to both teams over .550 it would be 413-48. Both of those records do not include games that push, but im not sure the easiest way to track those and they would have minimal impact on the success of the system. I did look into if it goes to the 4th game in the series, and both above .500 and above .550 have losing records in game 4's so it would be a 3 game chase.
Im not sure that this system is worthwhile as it only profits an average of 10/U a year, but would be interested to see if others have ideas on ways to make this or another totals chase profitable.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I was going through the forum today and looking at chases and it hit me that we rarely see chases on a total. I understand that there is more variability on a total than there is on picking a side, but there should still be value in a chase system on totals I would think.
My initial thought was to target bad pitchers or pitchers in bad situations on the over, but you may only be able to target one guy on a team and have to spread out chasing him over 3 weeks, which makes no sense. I figured why not see how chasing the under when good teams match up in a series. When both teams are over .500 in a 3+ game series, the under would be 792-102 since 2011 (just threw in a random year to be able to backtrack). If you raise the requirement to both teams over .550 it would be 413-48. Both of those records do not include games that push, but im not sure the easiest way to track those and they would have minimal impact on the success of the system. I did look into if it goes to the 4th game in the series, and both above .500 and above .550 have losing records in game 4's so it would be a 3 game chase.
Im not sure that this system is worthwhile as it only profits an average of 10/U a year, but would be interested to see if others have ideas on ways to make this or another totals chase profitable.
I was going through the forum today and looking at chases and it hit me that we rarely see chases on a total. I understand that there is more variability on a total than there is on picking a side, but there should still be value in a chase system on totals I would think. My initial thought was to target bad pitchers or pitchers in bad situations on the over, but you may only be able to target one guy on a team and have to spread out chasing him over 3 weeks, which makes no sense. I figured why not see how chasing the under when good teams match up in a series. When both teams are over .500 in a 3+ game series, the under would be 792-102 since 2011 (just threw in a random year to be able to backtrack). If you raise the requirement to both teams over .550 it would be 413-48. Both of those records do not include games that push, but im not sure the easiest way to track those and they would have minimal impact on the success of the system. I did look into if it goes to the 4th game in the series, and both above .500 and above .550 have losing records in game 4's so it would be a 3 game chase. https://killersports.com/mlb/query?su=1&ou=1&sdql=season+%3E+2011+and+SG+%3D+1+and+H+and+HWP%3E50+and+AWP+%3E50+and+SGS%3E2&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++ https://killersports.com/mlb/query?su=1&ou=1&sdql=season+%3E+2011+and+SG+%3D+2+and+H+and+HWP%3E50+and+AWP+%3E50+and+SGS%3E2+and+p%3AO&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++ https://killersports.com/mlb/query?su=1&ou=1&sdql=season+%3E+2011+and+SG+%3D+3+and+H+and+HWP%3E50+and+AWP+%3E50+and+SGS%3E2+and+p%3AO+and+pp%3AO&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++ Those are the links to the above .500 plays. Im not sure that this system is worthwhile as it only profits an average of 10/U a year, but would be interested to see if others have ideas on ways to make this or another totals chase profitable.
Your queries are wrong. by saying HWP and AWP you are looking at home winning percentage and Away winning % for the same team, not for the away and home team. if you want to look at 2 teams over 500 it would be
WP>50 and o:WP>50
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Quote Originally Posted by jb246810:
I was going through the forum today and looking at chases and it hit me that we rarely see chases on a total. I understand that there is more variability on a total than there is on picking a side, but there should still be value in a chase system on totals I would think. My initial thought was to target bad pitchers or pitchers in bad situations on the over, but you may only be able to target one guy on a team and have to spread out chasing him over 3 weeks, which makes no sense. I figured why not see how chasing the under when good teams match up in a series. When both teams are over .500 in a 3+ game series, the under would be 792-102 since 2011 (just threw in a random year to be able to backtrack). If you raise the requirement to both teams over .550 it would be 413-48. Both of those records do not include games that push, but im not sure the easiest way to track those and they would have minimal impact on the success of the system. I did look into if it goes to the 4th game in the series, and both above .500 and above .550 have losing records in game 4's so it would be a 3 game chase. https://killersports.com/mlb/query?su=1&ou=1&sdql=season+%3E+2011+and+SG+%3D+1+and+H+and+HWP%3E50+and+AWP+%3E50+and+SGS%3E2&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++ https://killersports.com/mlb/query?su=1&ou=1&sdql=season+%3E+2011+and+SG+%3D+2+and+H+and+HWP%3E50+and+AWP+%3E50+and+SGS%3E2+and+p%3AO&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++ https://killersports.com/mlb/query?su=1&ou=1&sdql=season+%3E+2011+and+SG+%3D+3+and+H+and+HWP%3E50+and+AWP+%3E50+and+SGS%3E2+and+p%3AO+and+pp%3AO&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++ Those are the links to the above .500 plays. Im not sure that this system is worthwhile as it only profits an average of 10/U a year, but would be interested to see if others have ideas on ways to make this or another totals chase profitable.
Your queries are wrong. by saying HWP and AWP you are looking at home winning percentage and Away winning % for the same team, not for the away and home team. if you want to look at 2 teams over 500 it would be
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