I didn't really backtest this but been playing it this year. when a team above 500 pct at home vs a team below 500 pct on the road bet the over. when a team 500 pct and above on the road playing a team below 500 pct at home bet the under. I wait to see what the first series of the game does and if the home team is above 500 pct and they come in on under then I play the over the next 2 games . anhd do it the other way around if there on the road. theres been a few loses but it doesn't look to bad on chase.