Just some random thoughts I had a few minutes ago so I figured I might ask here if someone already tried something similar to this:
Use ESPN/CBS/Whatever Powerrankings and bet on a team thats ranked 10+ higher than it's opponent and plays at home.
Game 1 : Bet as much as needed to win 100$ (example size) Game 2 : Bet as much as needet to win 100$ + Game 1 loss Game 3 : Bet as much as needed to win 100$ + Game 1 & 2 loss
If they lose game 3 and get swept you lost your money otherwise you win 100$.
Looking at today these are the possible plays:
Dodgers (#1 vs. #13 Rockies) Marlins (#18 vs. #30 Nationals)
If you want to play the "away" favorites too: Red Sox (#2 vs. #23 O's) Tigers (#5 vs. #26 A's) Twins (#14 vs. #25 Royals)
So if anyone tested it or wants to backtrack it, please give me your feedback.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Just some random thoughts I had a few minutes ago so I figured I might ask here if someone already tried something similar to this:
Use ESPN/CBS/Whatever Powerrankings and bet on a team thats ranked 10+ higher than it's opponent and plays at home.
Game 1 : Bet as much as needed to win 100$ (example size) Game 2 : Bet as much as needet to win 100$ + Game 1 loss Game 3 : Bet as much as needed to win 100$ + Game 1 & 2 loss
If they lose game 3 and get swept you lost your money otherwise you win 100$.
Looking at today these are the possible plays:
Dodgers (#1 vs. #13 Rockies) Marlins (#18 vs. #30 Nationals)
If you want to play the "away" favorites too: Red Sox (#2 vs. #23 O's) Tigers (#5 vs. #26 A's) Twins (#14 vs. #25 Royals)
So if anyone tested it or wants to backtrack it, please give me your feedback.
Just some random thoughts I had a few minutes ago so I figured I might ask here if someone already tried something similar to this:
Use ESPN/CBS/Whatever Powerrankings and bet on a team thats ranked 10+ higher than it's opponent and plays at home.
Game 1 : Bet as much as needed to win 100$ (example size) Game 2 : Bet as much as needet to win 100$ + Game 1 loss Game 3 : Bet as much as needed to win 100$ + Game 1 & 2 loss
If they lose game 3 and get swept you lost your money otherwise you win 100$.
Looking at today these are the possible plays:
Dodgers (#1 vs. #13 Rockies) Marlins (#18 vs. #30 Nationals)
If you want to play the "away" favorites too: Red Sox (#2 vs. #23 O's) Tigers (#5 vs. #26 A's) Twins (#14 vs. #25 Royals)
So if anyone tested it or wants to backtrack it, please give me your feedback.
The biggest battle here is the juice and if you can handle some really big bets and potential losses. Let's assume that the three games are going to be -120, -130, and -120.
Game 1 - 120 to win 100....loss of 120
Game 2 - 286 to win 220.....loss now at 406, plus still need to win 100
Game 3 - 607 to win 506
Total potential loss of $1013 on one series.
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Quote Originally Posted by Ston3:
Just some random thoughts I had a few minutes ago so I figured I might ask here if someone already tried something similar to this:
Use ESPN/CBS/Whatever Powerrankings and bet on a team thats ranked 10+ higher than it's opponent and plays at home.
Game 1 : Bet as much as needed to win 100$ (example size) Game 2 : Bet as much as needet to win 100$ + Game 1 loss Game 3 : Bet as much as needed to win 100$ + Game 1 & 2 loss
If they lose game 3 and get swept you lost your money otherwise you win 100$.
Looking at today these are the possible plays:
Dodgers (#1 vs. #13 Rockies) Marlins (#18 vs. #30 Nationals)
If you want to play the "away" favorites too: Red Sox (#2 vs. #23 O's) Tigers (#5 vs. #26 A's) Twins (#14 vs. #25 Royals)
So if anyone tested it or wants to backtrack it, please give me your feedback.
The biggest battle here is the juice and if you can handle some really big bets and potential losses. Let's assume that the three games are going to be -120, -130, and -120.
Game 1 - 120 to win 100....loss of 120
Game 2 - 286 to win 220.....loss now at 406, plus still need to win 100
In addition, Ston, if you're going to use a set of rankings to make your picks, use something with a mathematical basis like Massey's MLB ratings instead of some website's power poll that is assembled by a sportswriter who is in the press box buffet for the first three innings.
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In addition, Ston, if you're going to use a set of rankings to make your picks, use something with a mathematical basis like Massey's MLB ratings instead of some website's power poll that is assembled by a sportswriter who is in the press box buffet for the first three innings.
Well I'd love to to some back-test but unfortunatly I couldn't find any history data from "Massey Ratings"
So currently 7 series played 6 won 1 @ game 2 +600$
Unless someone can provide me with historic data I'll just test it until the end of the season
At the top of the screen on Massey's page there is a blue '2008' to click on. It will go back as far as you want. Then use Covers to look at the data for those teams in those years.
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Quote Originally Posted by Ston3:
Well I'd love to to some back-test but unfortunatly I couldn't find any history data from "Massey Ratings"
So currently 7 series played 6 won 1 @ game 2 +600$
Unless someone can provide me with historic data I'll just test it until the end of the season
At the top of the screen on Massey's page there is a blue '2008' to click on. It will go back as far as you want. Then use Covers to look at the data for those teams in those years.
At the top of the screen on Massey's page there is a blue '2008' to click on. It will go back as far as you want. Then use Covers to look at the data for those teams in those years.
It just shows the final rankings there. What I need would be a complete week by week ranking by massey to back-test the system. Because I doubt that the Rays were ranked #1 in April, 2008 ;)
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Quote Originally Posted by coachnip13:
At the top of the screen on Massey's page there is a blue '2008' to click on. It will go back as far as you want. Then use Covers to look at the data for those teams in those years.
It just shows the final rankings there. What I need would be a complete week by week ranking by massey to back-test the system. Because I doubt that the Rays were ranked #1 in April, 2008 ;)
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