Posted:
#1
I mostly play value spreads but Id like to commit a small amount to try out a money line system.
So far what Ive come up with is looking for ml dogs with better value that the ml/ps conversions ive done.
through some backlogging Ive come up with roughly the following guidelines for NFL:
PS 1 Fav -115 Dog +105
1', -125, +115
2, -135, +125
2', -145, +135
3, -150, +140
3', -165, +150
4, -185, +160
4', -195, +170
5, -210, +185
5', -220, +195
6, -240, +205
6', -250, +215
Those who have done this, how does this compare to your records?
Id like to find value dog plays that lie outside these criteria, for instance a 3 pt dog getting +150.
Im treating this solely as a learning experience so Id appreciate any constructive input from anyone interested in assisting, or perhaps playing along.
I figure Ill allocate 1k and make 5% plays relative to current BR.
Some initial thoughts to look for are home vs away, why the line is +EV (as per my chart), and injuries.
It may be too late in the season to start this but what the hey. Id like to run it for a few seasons before extrapolating results.
Ill spend Christmas break modeling this out so any (constructive) input is appreciated.
Regards,
Tomas
So far what Ive come up with is looking for ml dogs with better value that the ml/ps conversions ive done.
through some backlogging Ive come up with roughly the following guidelines for NFL:
PS 1 Fav -115 Dog +105
1', -125, +115
2, -135, +125
2', -145, +135
3, -150, +140
3', -165, +150
4, -185, +160
4', -195, +170
5, -210, +185
5', -220, +195
6, -240, +205
6', -250, +215
Those who have done this, how does this compare to your records?
Id like to find value dog plays that lie outside these criteria, for instance a 3 pt dog getting +150.
Im treating this solely as a learning experience so Id appreciate any constructive input from anyone interested in assisting, or perhaps playing along.
I figure Ill allocate 1k and make 5% plays relative to current BR.
Some initial thoughts to look for are home vs away, why the line is +EV (as per my chart), and injuries.
It may be too late in the season to start this but what the hey. Id like to run it for a few seasons before extrapolating results.
Ill spend Christmas break modeling this out so any (constructive) input is appreciated.
Regards,
Tomas
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