Moneyline Mega Parlay

I want to test a thought of mine about betting the moneyline and rolling the ticket much like Streak Survivor on Covers. A Mega Parlay that will start today with the NBA playoffs and run through WNBA, NCAAF and NCAAB.

The minimum requirements on a basketball bet will be:

1. The team is playing at home.

2. The team is favored by 8-9 points and the moneyline is between -400 to -500.

3. The home team has a >1.00 Home AF/AA ratio and the visiting team has a <1.00 Away AF/AA ratio.

Not every game that meets these minimum requirements will be bet on. I understand the probability of a -400 team winning is 80% and a -500 team winning is 83.33%. This is just a test.

1. Oklahoma City Thunder 05/16/2012

Playing at home

Favored by 8 points with ML -450

LA Lakers away 95.3 AF / 99.6 AA = 0.9568

OKC home 106.1 AF / 96.3 AA = 1.1017

$250.00 wager -450 to win $55.55.

1-0

I like this. Just curious:  Do you have a stopping point? A certain amount of games or amount of money to achieve? I mean sooner or later upsets happen.

Again, I'm not discouraging you. But just curious to what your plan is?

GL

Thanks go_opp!

Great question. I was thinking about the amount of opportunities between now and the end of NCAAB. With around 10 months total time, if 1 game per week was played the total would be around 40-43 games. That seems like way too many games to set as a goal. Like I mentioned, this test is like the Streak Survivor but on the ML. However, with that contest you have a deadline to make a selection. I could pass on several weeks and not feel under the gun like I have to pick a game. So to answer your question, no, I do not have a stopping point in mind nor do I have a set number of wins or money to achieve. 

One factor I am keeping in mind is the amount of money that compounding ML bets could build this into. How much will be too much that I would NOT be able to make the next ML bet? If this were to go well into NCAAF, there is a much better opportunity to make multiple ML wagers (same game) because you would have a week to do so. NCAAB may be a problem trying to place huge ML bets. I want to see how "it goes". Like on the game show Millionaire, when do you walk with the money?

I have started with a $250.00 bankroll. There is nothing important about that amount. I have many opportunites available still, no pressure. I must meet the minimum requirements, do additional capping, and make the best choices I can.  

2. Oklahoma City Thunder 05/21/2012

Playing at home

Favored by 8 points with ML -420

LA Lakers 94.7 AF / 99.1 AA = 0.9556

OKC 105.3 AF / 95.7 AA = 1.1003

$305.55 to win $72.75.

2 - 0

$378.30 balance

3. Miami Heat 05/28/2012

Playing at home

Favored by 8.5 points with ML -500

Boston away 90.6 AF / 93 AA = 0.9741

Miami home 100.2 AF / 88.6 AA = 1.1309

$378.30 to win $75.65

3 - 0

$453.95 balance

4. Miami Heat 05/30/2012

Playing at home

Favored by 8 points with ML -420

Boston away 90.3 AF / 93 AA = 0.9709

Miami home 100 AF / 88.3 AA = 1.1325

$453.95 to win $108.10

4 - 0

$562.05 balance

This ratio is the Average For (AF) points divided by the Average Against (AA) points. Greater than 1.00 (>) basically states that the home team scores more points at home than it gives up on average.

In my first wager with the LA Lakers at Oklahoma City Thunder, the ratios showed that the Lakers are not a good road team and the Thunder have played very well at home. Based on the 3 minimum requirements being met, the ML wager for the Thunder was a strong play.  

5. Miami Heat 06/05/2012

Playing at home

Favored by 8 points with ML -500

Boston away 90.8 AF / 93.5 AA = 0.9711

Miami home 100.4 AF / 88.9 AA = 1.1293

$562.05 to win $112.40

No, just basketball and college football.

BUSTED!