My 6 game chase with "chase insurance"

Reading some of the idea's in the forum about ways to chase and reduce risk has led me to an idea I am thinking may work. Basically I am making picks, based on my own handicapping, and chasing losses to 6 games.  My betting progression will be  1%, 3%, 6%, 13%, 26%, 51%  . After each chase ends HALF of the profit will be put back into the chase amount , and the other HALF put into what I will call chase insurance. I am thinking that if I let this build up, and I reach a game 4 or 5, I can reduce some or all of the amount left to chase by using some of the banked "chase insurance" to buy down the amount I am chasing... Once I have doubled the roll, I will cash out half, and begin again. Sounds good in theory...lets see if it works

starting roll  $914.95

Record 0-0

Profit  $0

Chase Insurance  Banked -$0

Bet 1 - Red Sox/Rays Under 8.5  +100

 1% - $9.15 to win $9.15 

boston game ppd ....

Bet 1 ..Oakland  -106   $9.15 to win $8.63

- difference is that if $457 is my initial roll, betting 1% is only half the profit ..as the roll grows, the bets grows, and the insurance grows...in theory anyway ..

Quote Originally Posted by NoSoLucky:

You are assuming you're going to win enough early on to get a decent size amount for the insurance to cover you later. What happens if you lose a big chase very early with only $30 in the insurance bank?

Maybe you should put SOME of your starting bank in insurance and start at 3% instead of 1% and keep 100% winnings for profit. Then when you hit a certain profit amount you start adding  half to insurance again and go back to 1%.

Just a thought.

agreed that if I hit a 6 game loss right off the bat doesn't matter how I manage my money..I am done... cant start at 3% for my chase though because to properly recoup my losses and still make a profit, starting at 3% would not leave me enough by game 6 to recoup losses of games 1-5  ...I like the idea though of adding more to insurance once I hit a certain point...ie , if I double up ,..cash out a quarter , start a quarter as insurance and start over..with 1.5 the bank roll ...interesting...anyway got a ways to go before I need to worry about that...

Quote Originally Posted by NoSoLucky:

You are assuming you're going to win enough early on to get a decent size amount for the insurance to cover you later. What happens if you lose a big chase very early with only $30 in the insurance bank?

Maybe you should put SOME of your starting bank in insurance and start at 3% instead of 1% and keep 100% winnings for profit. Then when you hit a certain profit amount you start adding  half to insurance again and go back to 1%.

Just a thought.

agreed that if I hit a 6 game loss right off the bat doesn't matter how I manage my money..I am done... cant start at 3% for my chase though because to properly recoup my losses and still make a profit, starting at 3% would not leave me enough by game 6 to recoup losses of games 1-5  ...I like the idea though of adding more to insurance once I hit a certain point...ie , if I double up ,..cash out a quarter , start a quarter as insurance and start over..with 1.5 the bank roll ...interesting...anyway got a ways to go before I need to worry about that...

Quote Originally Posted by NoSoLucky:

You are assuming you're going to win enough early on to get a decent size amount for the insurance to cover you later. What happens if you lose a big chase very early with only $30 in the insurance bank?

Maybe you should put SOME of your starting bank in insurance and start at 3% instead of 1% and keep 100% winnings for profit. Then when you hit a certain profit amount you start adding  half to insurance again and go back to 1%.

Just a thought.

agreed that if I hit a 6 game loss right off the bat doesn't matter how I manage my money..I am done... cant start at 3% for my chase though because to properly recoup my losses and still make a profit, starting at 3% would not leave me enough by game 6 to recoup losses of games 1-5  ...I like the idea though of adding more to insurance once I hit a certain point...ie , if I double up ,..cash out a quarter , start a quarter as insurance and start over..with 1.5 the bank roll ...interesting...anyway got a ways to go before I need to worry about that...

level 2  (3%)  Mets gm 1 over 8  -104

$27.45 to win $26.39

starting roll  $914.95

Chase Record 1-0

Profit  $17.24

Chase Insurance  Banked -$8.62

Current Roll - $923.57

next play

Level 1 - Tampa Bay  (1%)  -105  , $9.24 to win $8.80

starting roll  $914.95

Chase Record 2-0

Profit  $26.04

Chase Insurance  Banked :$13.02

Current Roll: $927.97

starting roll  $914.95

Chase Record 3-0

Profit  $39.54

Chase Insurance  Banked :$19.77

Current Roll: $934.72