Narwhal NCAAF & NFL Pick Strategy

Question

I have put together a set of guidelines for picking NCAAF & NFL games.

I use four factors when coming up with picks:

- Line movement

- Public %

- Predicted Spreads (I have a calculation I use to predict spreads)

- Power Rating

All four factors go into my plays and all four must line up.

I have been messing around with these for awhile trying to perfect the right combination of factors when picking games. I feel that i have finally figured out the right numbers. This is not a system for action junkies as there will be a limited number of games each week that meet the criteria.

One more thing to take note, because public % and line movement are important factors picks are usually not made until 1 hour to 30min before game time.

Basically i wanted to create this thread as a place holder and i will be back throughout the week as plays come available that meet the criteria of the system and i will post them ITT.

Narwhal · Answer

I have put together a set of guidelines for picking NCAAF & NFL games.

I use four factors when coming up with picks:

- Line movement

- Public %

- Predicted Spreads (I have a calculation I use to predict spreads)

- Power Rating

All four factors go into my plays and all four must line up.

I have been messing around with these for awhile trying to perfect the right combination of factors when picking games. I feel that i have finally figured out the right numbers. This is not a system for action junkies as there will be a limited number of games each week that meet the criteria.

One more thing to take note, because public % and line movement are important factors picks are usually not made until 1 hour to 30min before game time.

Basically i wanted to create this thread as a place holder and i will be back throughout the week as plays come available that meet the criteria of the system and i will post them ITT.

Narwhal · Answer

blackhawks -133

Narwhal · Answer

wrong thread.

Narwhal · Answer

We have a play tonightMemphis &#x2B;1.5- Opposite line movement- 30% of bets coming in on Memphis spread- my predicted spread came in at Memphis &#x2B;0- Power ratings I use have Memphis slightly ahead of Cincy. Because all of these factors line up Memphis &#x2B;1.5 is a play tonight.

Narwhal · Answer

I am posting this play early compare to when I usually post them but that is bc I could see the line continue to drop and I don&#39;t dont predict a big change in the public % on Memphis.

Narwhal · Answer

System #1:memphis &#x2B;1.50-1

Narwhal · Answer

System #2:West Virginia &#x2B;14Minnesota &#x2B;10South Alabama -3Tulane &#x2B;3.5I know some of the numbers wont be able to get picked up right now.  With this system i base off power ratings and point differential between my spreads and actual spreads.  I usually pick these games sunday or monday right when the lines come out.  I will start posting them when i play them from here on out.

Narwhal NCAAF & NFL Pick Strategy

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