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NBA 2009 - Top 5 / Bottom 5

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Posted: #26
First, the Lakers hit makes me want to try splitting up the loss across all A bets, $4 to the end of each A line. So, I did.

Also, instead of playing just series chases for the Bottom 5 teams, I'm going to play all away games just like I'm doing for the Top 5 teams. I'm feeling confident. I think the wins will bury the losses over the course of the season.

Finally, here are today's plays. The system calls for a double play on SA. It might be an understatement to say Let's go San Antonio but I'm gonna say it...

Let's go San Antonio!

B - CLE
A - SA
A - SAC (to lose to SA)

GL on all your games today!









 
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Posted: #27
Wise to split up your losses
Over the course of the season you'll get 'em back plus more of the bad guys money
Just be careful with reinventing the wheel by switching or adding different ways to chase
If you have already back testing results then go for it
If not my suggestion is to just be careful and know what your stepping into

About Sas & Sac
Because its early I would go by how that's telling me that the Sas is twice as strong to win with one unit
Just me personally I wouldn't risk twice as much but rather feel twice as confident of a quality win based off its strength
If this continues as the season progresses then it would be safe to double up on a play like that

Kreature was doing that in MLB this year and it did work with similar parameters. By then it was already in the 2nd half of the season so when the opportunity came - he knew what he was working with and attacked it with flying colors


..............

 
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Posted: #28

CLE - 12   L
SA -13.5  W
SAC (to lose) -13.5  W

2.3 units on the season


So, turns out my book didn't offer ML lines on the SA game or the CLE game. Shoulda known. So, I dropped the 3 points on both lines and took my chances...

I'm going to backtest a little more and see what the 3 pt. drop did to our Top 5 / Bottom 5 teams last year. I have a feeling this system is going to morph into something that accommodates the 3 pt. drop. It's a good way to thin the juice and maybe add an extra chase.



2009 NBA



 
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Posted: #29
Sorry bro, I forget to acknowledge your comments in the last post.

Yes, laying off the double SA / SAC bet would probably have been a good idea so early in the season, but I wanna stay true to the picks, even if they duplicate themselves.

3 good picks tomorrow...

 
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Posted: #30
Today's plays

B - LAL ML
A - BOS (buy 3) -8.5
A - DEN (to beat MEM) ML

GL on your plays today!


 
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Posted: #31
.................
You could be onto something
Try bookmaker.com  if you're interested on saving losses on those non ML gm's for when you buy the 3 points and still lose
Just a suggestion
Quality sportsbook
They carry all ML's no matter how steep
But do have bet limits at 1st I think up to $2,000 per straight bet
You can raise you limit up to 5g's or so by being with them for a bit or calling them????? I forget
I say this cause it can get dicey chasing ML's but I am interested in what you got my man
..............
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by MontanaMax:

.................
You could be onto something
Try bookmaker.com  if you're interested on saving losses on those non ML gm's for when you buy the 3 points and still lose
Just a suggestion
Quality sportsbook
They carry all ML's no matter how steep
But do have bet limits at 1st I think up to $2,000 per straight bet
You can raise you limit up to 5g's or so by being with them for a bit or calling them????? I forget
I say this cause it can get dicey chasing ML's but I am interested in what you got my man
..............


Just a heads up Bookmaker.com only allows the purchase of 2 points at -150.
 
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Posted: #33
Cool 3-0 day. Other personal awesome happenings simply augmented the day.



B - LAL ML - W
A - BOS (buy 3) -8.5 - W
A - DEN (to beat MEM) ML - W

5.3 units on the long season.








 
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Posted: #34
Today's only play

A - MEM (to lose at SAC)
 
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Posted: #35

A - MEM (to lose at SAC) -  W

+6.7 units on the season
A bets  14-2
B bets  0-1
C bets 0-0


Today's plays

C - CLE
A - MIL

Let's hope CLE will finally win a home game, even with Shaq slowing them down. And MIL's Michael Redd is out indefinitely.

Good luck on all of your plays, today!




 
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Posted: #36

C - CLE - W
A - MIL - W

+9.3 units on the season
A bets  15-2
B bets  0-1
C bets 1-0

Todays plays

A - ORL
A - MEM (to lose to GS)

Good luck on all of your plays, today!







 
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Posted: #37
A - ORL - W
A - MEM (to lose to GS) - W

+11.7 units on the season
A bets  17-2
B bets  0-1
C bets 1-0

Todays plays

A - CLE

The CLE A bet line is at 5-11, so this bet is to win 1.6 units.
Top 5 / Bottom 5 Spreadsheet





 
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Posted: #38

Doing a good job with documentation. Easy to follow and keep up the good work.

GL tonight.

 
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Posted: #39
So for tonight, we have both the lakers and magic at -2000 moneyline....what's the plan for these two?

Thanks!
 
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Posted: #40
Looking above, is it buying 3 pts on the spread for both? Thanks again.
 
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Posted: #41

-2000 is insane. This is where this system gets into a little trouble.

I would think you either skip these games, or buy 3 points to get the spread down.

Third option would be to play the spread as it is, but that is not the point of this system.

 
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Posted: #42
Yes, -2000 is a dealbreaker.

CLE lost last night, so we went from up about +11 units to about -4 units. I'm going to do some back testing this weekend on the 3 pt buy in to see if it can be used to save the system. I would probably ML each bet up to about -600. Anything more than that, buy the 3 points.

Still a work in progress...

Today's plays

A - LAL
A - BOS
A - ORL
A - MIN (to beat MIL)

GL!



 
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Posted: #43
Oh, and I'm seriously thinking of replacing CLE with DEN...



 
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Posted: #44
CLE =
 
 
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Posted: #45
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