Posted:
#1
Hey guys, I have been thinking of trying to come up with some kind of chase system that I haven't seen on any of these threads, that I actually truthfully thought could be profitable.
Chase systems are unique. They seem like they really work and can be profitable until those rare losses occur and you don't realize how much they account for, and your back to even or more likely in the negative.
For a chase system really be profitable in the long, the system has to have an event or series of events that is likely to flip or reverse a current trend. Really being able to quantify these things is the hard part and a reason I tend to not think much of chase systems.
A lot of chase systems I see say after a team has lost 4 straight ATS, then bet on them to cover and if they don't then chase for 3 games. I really don't think that there is much to these types of chase systems personally because even though it would seem logical that a team might be more determined to play better next game out, they might tank it as well. I imagine that the chance these teams cover from game to game are really no better than 50/50.
I do think there is some validity to the chase systems though that account for some psychological effects on teams, like road trip series chases in the NBA and NHL, especially going from coast to coast or whatnot. But again, it's really challenging to quantify these types of things, although I am thinking of doing a statistical study on them if I can create a database for them.
What I am proposing here is a chase system that I think can work...
Chase systems are unique. They seem like they really work and can be profitable until those rare losses occur and you don't realize how much they account for, and your back to even or more likely in the negative.
For a chase system really be profitable in the long, the system has to have an event or series of events that is likely to flip or reverse a current trend. Really being able to quantify these things is the hard part and a reason I tend to not think much of chase systems.
A lot of chase systems I see say after a team has lost 4 straight ATS, then bet on them to cover and if they don't then chase for 3 games. I really don't think that there is much to these types of chase systems personally because even though it would seem logical that a team might be more determined to play better next game out, they might tank it as well. I imagine that the chance these teams cover from game to game are really no better than 50/50.
I do think there is some validity to the chase systems though that account for some psychological effects on teams, like road trip series chases in the NBA and NHL, especially going from coast to coast or whatnot. But again, it's really challenging to quantify these types of things, although I am thinking of doing a statistical study on them if I can create a database for them.
What I am proposing here is a chase system that I think can work...
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