NCAAF Week 2 O/U's

Question

Been posting some stuff to the site for a few years on and off; testing some strategies mainly in NCAAB that have been up and down but nothing special.

I've been doing some analysis using Football Outsiders' NCAAF stats and rankings and such. A lot of there college stuff at least is focused towards the speads/lines when they do their analysis and projections. Yet, they do make projections, and I've been messing around with them to get plays on the Over/Unders.

I can go into detail at later time if anyone wants to discuss what I've been looking at, how I've tweaked their projections or such, but for now I'm going to post today's plays before the games kick off here at noon.

For starters each play will be either a 4*, 3*, or 2* (each star (*), representing a unit in the bankroll).

Here's today's plays:

3*
Navy/Western Kentucky    Over 52.5

2*'s
Southern Miss/Marshall    Under 51
Auburn/Mississippi St.    Under 57.5
Michigan/Notre Dame    Over 55.5
Tulsa/Tulane    Under 64
Alabama/Penn St.    Over 42
Cincinnati/Tennessee    Under 56
BYU/Texas    Under 48.5
Kentucky/Central Michigan    Over 48
Iowa/Iowa St.    Over 44.5

FreakyFresh · Answer

Been posting some stuff to the site for a few years on and off; testing some strategies mainly in NCAAB that have been up and down but nothing special.

I've been doing some analysis using Football Outsiders' NCAAF stats and rankings and such. A lot of there college stuff at least is focused towards the speads/lines when they do their analysis and projections. Yet, they do make projections, and I've been messing around with them to get plays on the Over/Unders.

I can go into detail at later time if anyone wants to discuss what I've been looking at, how I've tweaked their projections or such, but for now I'm going to post today's plays before the games kick off here at noon.

For starters each play will be either a 4*, 3*, or 2* (each star (*), representing a unit in the bankroll).

Here's today's plays:

3*
Navy/Western Kentucky    Over 52.5

2*'s
Southern Miss/Marshall    Under 51
Auburn/Mississippi St.    Under 57.5
Michigan/Notre Dame    Over 55.5
Tulsa/Tulane    Under 64
Alabama/Penn St.    Over 42
Cincinnati/Tennessee    Under 56
BYU/Texas    Under 48.5
Kentucky/Central Michigan    Over 48
Iowa/Iowa St.    Over 44.5

FreakyFresh · Answer

Results from Saturday&#x27;s Plays:3*Navy/Western Kentucky    Over 52.5   2* Southern Miss/Marshall    Under 51   Auburn/Mississippi St.    Under 57.5   Michigan/Notre Dame    Over 55.5    Tulsa/Tulane    Under 64    Alabama/Penn State Over 42    Cincinnati/Tennessee    Under 56    BYU/Texas   Under 48.5    Kentucky/Central Michigan    Over 48    Iowa/Iowa St.    Over 44.5    Week 2 Results:3* Games: Overall: 1 - 0 (100%) Adjusted for Stars:  3 - 0  (100%)Adj. for Stars &amp; Vig:  2.73 - 0  (Net: &#x2B;2.73)Return on Investment:  &#x2B;90% ... (2.73/3)2* Games:Overall: 5 - 4 (55.5%)Adjusted for Stars:  10 - 8 (55.5%)Adj. for Stars &amp; Vig:  9.09 - 8  (Net: &#x2B;1.09)Return on Investment:  6.06% .... (1.09/18)Total:Overall:  6 - 4 (60%)Adjustment for Stars:  13 - 8  (61.9%)Adj. for Stars &amp; Vig:  11.82 - 8  (Net: &#x2B;3.82)Return on Investment:  18.2% .... (3.82/21)Overall, it turned out to be a good week, hitting 6 of 10 total picks, and after adjusting for the larger play on the Navy/Western Kentucky play, it was really a 61.9% week.  The net result of the week was &#x2B;3.82 Stars (or units, as they are interchangeable really for these purposes).  In total there was 21 Stars (or units) gettting action for the week, so it resulted in a 18.2% ROI. I&#x27;ll continue the thread once Football Outsiders posts their plays for this upcoming week.

NCAAF Week 2 O/U's

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