Need some help with a gambling, math problem

Question

In order to be a profitable sports bettor, i know you need to win approx. 52.5% of your bets. I did very well this NFL season and won 56.8% of my bets.

Now heres my question: I have a buddy who works for a bookie. The bookie gives him 40% of his clients losses. He said that if i give him my business, on losing weeks, i will get back 20% of my losses. My average bet is about 1.1 Units if that has any effect on anything (dont think it does).

So if a sports bettor betting at -110 has to win 52.5% of his bets and is getting 0 return on losses, what does my percentage need to be if i get a 20% return on losing weeks.

Really appreciate the help guys, any input that helps me come along and get the answer is welcomed.

AceRothstein27 · Answer

In order to be a profitable sports bettor, i know you need to win approx. 52.5% of your bets. I did very well this NFL season and won 56.8% of my bets.

Now heres my question: I have a buddy who works for a bookie. The bookie gives him 40% of his clients losses. He said that if i give him my business, on losing weeks, i will get back 20% of my losses. My average bet is about 1.1 Units if that has any effect on anything (dont think it does).

So if a sports bettor betting at -110 has to win 52.5% of his bets and is getting 0 return on losses, what does my percentage need to be if i get a 20% return on losing weeks.

Really appreciate the help guys, any input that helps me come along and get the answer is welcomed.

Danrules24 · Answer

If I&#x27;m looking at this right, you still need 52.5% (roughly) to make a profit. Getting 20% back on your losses still makes it a loss, just less painful.&#xD;&#xA;Let&#x27;s say you bet 100 games to win $100 each and go 50-50 at -110 odds. You win $5000 and lose $5500 for a total loss of $500. Getting 20% back is $100, so a net loss of $400. A losing week is still a losing week. At 52% you win 5200 lose 5280 = $80 loss, less 20% back is a loss of $64. &#xD;&#xA;No matter how you look at it, you still need that 52.5% to have a profitable week, but if someone is willing to cut your loss in any given week by 20% I don&#x27;t see a downside.

bruin95 · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by Danrules24]  If I&#x27;m looking at this right, you still need 52.5% (roughly) to make a profit. Getting 20% back on your losses still makes it a loss, just less painful.&#xD;&#xA;Let&#x27;s say you bet 100 games to win $100 each and go 50-50 at -110 odds. You win $5000 and lose $5500 for a total loss of $500. Getting 20% back is $100, so a net loss of $400. A losing week is still a losing week. At 52% you win 5200 lose 5280 = $80 loss, less 20% back is a loss of $64. &#xD;&#xA;No matter how you look at it, you still need that 52.5% to have a profitable week, but if someone is willing to cut your loss in any given week by 20% I don&#x27;t see a downside.   [/Quote]Actually, you&#x27;re figuring it wrong.  You&#x27;re right, in your scenario, that the total loss would be $500, if everything was normal.  But he is going to get 20% back on EVERY bet he loses.  So, if he bets $110 a game, and loses, he gets back 20%, or $22.  In your scenario, you apply the 20% on the $5500 in total losses, not the actual $500 loss he would have incurred if all things were normal.  Going 50%, in this scenario, nets a profit of $600.  If he is getting back 20% on each loss, and all bets are of an equal amount, he would need to hit a little over 47% to make a profit.  Nice work, if you can get it.

AceRothstein27 · Answer

Thanks bruin and danrules, i was going to do the same math this morning that danrules did however it does seem you made a small mistake, which bruin was keen enough to catch. Wow though 47% sounds like a dream come true, if i could recreate last years success i'll be a very happy man.

This type of help is what covers should be about.

Thanks guys Bol

Danrules24 · Answer

Ace, do you get 20% back on each individual game you lose or do you get back 20% of your total losses for the week in which you ended up down for the week?

That is a huge difference and turns winning weeks into much more profitable weeks. your first post said losing weeks and I took that to mean that when you settle,up for the week you get back 20% of what you had to pay your guy.

AceRothstein27 · Answer

End of the week totals. If i lose $1000 at the end of the week, i get 20% back, $200. If i win, i just get my profits.

Danrules24 · Answer

&#xD;&#xA;If that is the case, then my math in post 2 is correct, not what Bruin posted in #3.

bruin95 · Answer

If that&#x27;s the case, it&#x27;s not really that great a deal.  All that will happen is that you will lose less, like Dan said.  You still need to win over 50% to make a profit.  It&#x27;s better than getting nothing back, though.

Bart_ · Answer

basically he is offering you -108 odds.

you save 20% of the 10 in -110.

using dan's example:

(5500 - 100)/5000 = 1.08

(total lost - discount) / amount to win = odds

compare his lines to what online books like Pinnacle and 5dimes have. you would be in a very good spot if he can beat their lines.

BUSTERDOUGLASS · Answer

yes it&#x27;s simple good business but you still are losing money bottom line.would enoy getting 20% cut off lossesso i went 1- 3 one week $100 wagers i would lose $230 cut 20% is $46 less so i only pay out $184 i think this clears up the math problem ACE Bookies never lose If i booked i would give back 40% and still make nice profits heres the example 10 people lose $11000  thats $1100 each so X 40% is $440 off I&#x27;m still making obscene profits $6600 for the week thats on the 10 losers now if i have 20 winners i&#x27;m still losing because winners were more than losers but i guees just giving that reduction to 1 or 2 players ain&#x27;t going to drive any bookie broke.I want to start my own book here min wager $5 but all cash up front with receipts for each player

AceRothstein27 · Answer

Thanks for all the help guys. The 20% only kicks in on losing weeks so it's tough to figure out exacly what my advantage is. It's nice to get a little something back after a potential tough week.

Books are always going to win in the long run because of their big customer base and 99% of gamblers fail with money management or making good picks. Most suffer from both lol. I'm hoping my 56.8% football win percentage last season wasnt a fluke and im one of the few who could make some extra money during the football season with solid picks and good money management.

Thanks alot guys, hopefully we could work this well together during next season to pump out some winning picks.

BOL

Need some help with a gambling, math problem

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