This is a strategy have seen work for some players and want to track it here to see how strong the strategy will be. All plays posted will be based on Matchbook lines and the selection will be from all major sports where there is a difference of 10 or more between the juice on the posted lines. The time in some players selections is very important but due to my schedule this will not be a factor in my selections. Whenever I have the time to track the differences and post will vary so the record may be better or worse depending on when you track the differences. What you are looking for is the side where Matchbook has the highest juice or vigorish and the difference is 10 or greater than the juice on the opposite side. The reasoning is that they are looking for money to be played on the wrong side so offer lower vigorish. Any questions feel free to ask.
Here are the selections for NFL, NBA, CBB and CFB:
Michigan -4.5 South Alabama -3.5 Memphis -1 Arizona St -1 Montana -1 San Diego +8.5 South Dakota St +3
CFB
Iowa State +2.5 Tenn +5.5
This is a test, not a proven strategy, bet at your own risk. Lets see how they do over a period of time before investing. Good luck in all your wagers.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
This is a strategy have seen work for some players and want to track it here to see how strong the strategy will be. All plays posted will be based on Matchbook lines and the selection will be from all major sports where there is a difference of 10 or more between the juice on the posted lines. The time in some players selections is very important but due to my schedule this will not be a factor in my selections. Whenever I have the time to track the differences and post will vary so the record may be better or worse depending on when you track the differences. What you are looking for is the side where Matchbook has the highest juice or vigorish and the difference is 10 or greater than the juice on the opposite side. The reasoning is that they are looking for money to be played on the wrong side so offer lower vigorish. Any questions feel free to ask.
Here are the selections for NFL, NBA, CBB and CFB:
Michigan -4.5 South Alabama -3.5 Memphis -1 Arizona St -1 Montana -1 San Diego +8.5 South Dakota St +3
CFB
Iowa State +2.5 Tenn +5.5
This is a test, not a proven strategy, bet at your own risk. Lets see how they do over a period of time before investing. Good luck in all your wagers.
This is a strategy have seen work for some players and want to track it here to see how strong the strategy will be. All plays posted will be based on Matchbook lines and the selection will be from all major sports where there is a difference of 10 or more between the juice on the posted lines. The time in some players selections is very important but due to my schedule this will not be a factor in my selections. Whenever I have the time to track the differences and post will vary so the record may be better or worse depending on when you track the differences. What you are looking for is the side where Matchbook has the highest juice or vigorish and the difference is 10 or greater than the juice on the opposite side. The reasoning is that they are looking for money to be played on the wrong side so offer lower vigorish. Any questions feel free to ask.
Here are the selections for NFL, NBA, CBB and CFB:
Detroit -4 Loss San Antonio -7.5 Win OKC -2.5 Loss 76'rs -12.5 Loss
CBB
Michigan -4.5 Loss South Alabama -3.5 Win Memphis -1 Loss Arizona St -1 Loss Montana -1 Loss San Diego +8.5 Loss South Dakota St +3 Win
CFB
Iowa State +2.5 Win Tenn +5.5 Loss
This is a test, not a proven strategy, bet at your own risk. Lets see how they do over a period of time before investing. Good luck in all your wagers.
Interesting result with small sample. The results are just the opposite of what I assumed they would be. The lines with the lower vigorish turned out to be the better plays. This may have to do with timing so lets study some more. I will try to post my observations about the same time each day. Of course no results for NFL as they are pending..
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Quote Originally Posted by JimmyJet:
This is a strategy have seen work for some players and want to track it here to see how strong the strategy will be. All plays posted will be based on Matchbook lines and the selection will be from all major sports where there is a difference of 10 or more between the juice on the posted lines. The time in some players selections is very important but due to my schedule this will not be a factor in my selections. Whenever I have the time to track the differences and post will vary so the record may be better or worse depending on when you track the differences. What you are looking for is the side where Matchbook has the highest juice or vigorish and the difference is 10 or greater than the juice on the opposite side. The reasoning is that they are looking for money to be played on the wrong side so offer lower vigorish. Any questions feel free to ask.
Here are the selections for NFL, NBA, CBB and CFB:
Detroit -4 Loss San Antonio -7.5 Win OKC -2.5 Loss 76'rs -12.5 Loss
CBB
Michigan -4.5 Loss South Alabama -3.5 Win Memphis -1 Loss Arizona St -1 Loss Montana -1 Loss San Diego +8.5 Loss South Dakota St +3 Win
CFB
Iowa State +2.5 Win Tenn +5.5 Loss
This is a test, not a proven strategy, bet at your own risk. Lets see how they do over a period of time before investing. Good luck in all your wagers.
Interesting result with small sample. The results are just the opposite of what I assumed they would be. The lines with the lower vigorish turned out to be the better plays. This may have to do with timing so lets study some more. I will try to post my observations about the same time each day. Of course no results for NFL as they are pending..
Please keep in mind this is research and a very small sample. To restate the parameters we are looking at sides that show 10 or more difference in vigorish or juice at Bookmaker. We are listing those that are the most vigorish assuming that they do not want these bets. So far our assumption has shown to be wrong.
CFB
West Virgina -2.5 LSU +1
CBB
Indiana St +1 So Ill +3 Missouri -5.5 Wichita St -14 Northern Iowa -16 New Mexico -7.5
NBA
Knicks + 11.5
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Please keep in mind this is research and a very small sample. To restate the parameters we are looking at sides that show 10 or more difference in vigorish or juice at Bookmaker. We are listing those that are the most vigorish assuming that they do not want these bets. So far our assumption has shown to be wrong.
CFB
West Virgina -2.5 LSU +1
CBB
Indiana St +1 So Ill +3 Missouri -5.5 Wichita St -14 Northern Iowa -16 New Mexico -7.5
Please keep in mind this is research and a very small sample. To restate the parameters we are looking at sides that show 10 or more difference in vigorish or juice at Bookmaker. We are listing those that are the most vigorish assuming that they do not want these bets. So far our assumption has shown to be wrong.
CFB
West Virgina -2.5 Loss LSU +1 Loss
CBB
Indiana St +1 Win So Ill +3 Win Missouri St -5.5 Loss Wichita St -14 Win Northern Iowa -16 Win New Mexico -7.5 Loss
NBA
Knicks + 11.5 Win
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Quote Originally Posted by JimmyJet:
Please keep in mind this is research and a very small sample. To restate the parameters we are looking at sides that show 10 or more difference in vigorish or juice at Bookmaker. We are listing those that are the most vigorish assuming that they do not want these bets. So far our assumption has shown to be wrong.
CFB
West Virgina -2.5 Loss LSU +1 Loss
CBB
Indiana St +1 Win So Ill +3 Win Missouri St -5.5 Loss Wichita St -14 Win Northern Iowa -16 Win New Mexico -7.5 Loss
Ill -2.5 UCLA -5 Rider +6 St Bona +7.5 Delaware +5 St Joes -7 Butler -14 Niagra -6 Auburn -16 Tulsa -8.5 Kentucky -7.5 Marquette +1 Hofstra -1.5 Northeastern -9.5 Wright St -7.5 Fairfield -1.5 Washington -11.5 Kansas -6 Northwestern +5 St Louis +2 South Alabama +2.5 Wash St -7.5 Youngstown St -1 Marist +5.5 Middle Tenn St -5.5 Nevada +3.5 UWGB +3 North Texas +1 Virginia Tech +5 Denver +5 Northern Az +5 Tenn Tech -2 Austin Peay +5.5 Weber St -4 Pacific -10.5 Cal St Fullerton +1.5 Cal Riverside +2.5 UC Irvine -1 Utah St -5.5 Hawaii +1
NBA
Nets +10.5 Hornets -2.5 Portland -4
NCAAF
N Ill +7 Miss -3 Eastern Carolina +7.5 Mich St +7.5
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Saturday....lots of games!!
NCAAB
Ill -2.5 UCLA -5 Rider +6 St Bona +7.5 Delaware +5 St Joes -7 Butler -14 Niagra -6 Auburn -16 Tulsa -8.5 Kentucky -7.5 Marquette +1 Hofstra -1.5 Northeastern -9.5 Wright St -7.5 Fairfield -1.5 Washington -11.5 Kansas -6 Northwestern +5 St Louis +2 South Alabama +2.5 Wash St -7.5 Youngstown St -1 Marist +5.5 Middle Tenn St -5.5 Nevada +3.5 UWGB +3 North Texas +1 Virginia Tech +5 Denver +5 Northern Az +5 Tenn Tech -2 Austin Peay +5.5 Weber St -4 Pacific -10.5 Cal St Fullerton +1.5 Cal Riverside +2.5 UC Irvine -1 Utah St -5.5 Hawaii +1
NBA
Nets +10.5 Hornets -2.5 Portland -4
NCAAF
N Ill +7 Miss -3 Eastern Carolina +7.5 Mich St +7.5
Ill -2.5 Loss UCLA -5 Loss Rider +6 Win St Bona +7.5 Loss Delaware +5 Win St Joes -7 Loss Butler -14 Loss Niagra -6 Loss Auburn -16 Win Tulsa -8.5 Win Kentucky -7.5 Win Marquette +1 Loss Hofstra -1.5 Loss Northeastern -9.5 Win Wright St -7.5 Win Fairfield -1.5 Win Washington -11.5 Loss Kansas -6 Win Northwestern +5 Loss St Louis +2 Loss South Alabama +2.5 Win Wash St -7.5 Loss Youngstown St -1 Loss Marist +5.5 Loss Middle Tenn St -5.5 Win Nevada +3.5 Loss UWGB +3 Win North Texas +1 Loss Virginia Tech +5 Win Denver +5 Loss Northern Az +5 Loss Tenn Tech -2 Win Austin Peay +5.5 Win Weber St -4 Win Pacific -10.5 Loss Cal St Fullerton +1.5 Loss Cal Riverside +2.5 Win UC Irvine -1 Win Utah St -5.5 Loss Hawaii +1 Loss
NBA
Nets +10.5 Win Hornets -2.5 Win Portland -4 Win
NCAAF
N Ill +7 Loss Miss -3 Win Eastern Carolina +7.5 Win Mich St +7.5 Loss
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Quote Originally Posted by JimmyJet:
Saturday....lots of games!!
NCAAB
Ill -2.5 Loss UCLA -5 Loss Rider +6 Win St Bona +7.5 Loss Delaware +5 Win St Joes -7 Loss Butler -14 Loss Niagra -6 Loss Auburn -16 Win Tulsa -8.5 Win Kentucky -7.5 Win Marquette +1 Loss Hofstra -1.5 Loss Northeastern -9.5 Win Wright St -7.5 Win Fairfield -1.5 Win Washington -11.5 Loss Kansas -6 Win Northwestern +5 Loss St Louis +2 Loss South Alabama +2.5 Win Wash St -7.5 Loss Youngstown St -1 Loss Marist +5.5 Loss Middle Tenn St -5.5 Win Nevada +3.5 Loss UWGB +3 Win North Texas +1 Loss Virginia Tech +5 Win Denver +5 Loss Northern Az +5 Loss Tenn Tech -2 Win Austin Peay +5.5 Win Weber St -4 Win Pacific -10.5 Loss Cal St Fullerton +1.5 Loss Cal Riverside +2.5 Win UC Irvine -1 Win Utah St -5.5 Loss Hawaii +1 Loss
NBA
Nets +10.5 Win Hornets -2.5 Win Portland -4 Win
NCAAF
N Ill +7 Loss Miss -3 Win Eastern Carolina +7.5 Win Mich St +7.5 Loss
This is a strategy have seen work for some players and want to track it here to see how strong the strategy will be. All plays posted will be based on Matchbook lines and the selection will be from all major sports where there is a difference of 10 or more between the juice on the posted lines. The time in some players selections is very important but due to my schedule this will not be a factor in my selections. Whenever I have the time to track the differences and post will vary so the record may be better or worse depending on when you track the differences. What you are looking for is the side where Matchbook has the highest juice or vigorish and the difference is 10 or greater than the juice on the opposite side. The reasoning is that they are looking for money to be played on the wrong side so offer lower vigorish. Any questions feel free to ask.
Here are the selections for NFL, NBA, CBB and CFB:
Michigan -4.5 South Alabama -3.5 Memphis -1 Arizona St -1 Montana -1 San Diego +8.5 South Dakota St +3
CFB
Iowa State +2.5 Tenn +5.5
This is a test, not a proven strategy, bet at your own risk. Lets see how they do over a period of time before investing. Good luck in all your wagers.
0
Quote Originally Posted by JimmyJet:
This is a strategy have seen work for some players and want to track it here to see how strong the strategy will be. All plays posted will be based on Matchbook lines and the selection will be from all major sports where there is a difference of 10 or more between the juice on the posted lines. The time in some players selections is very important but due to my schedule this will not be a factor in my selections. Whenever I have the time to track the differences and post will vary so the record may be better or worse depending on when you track the differences. What you are looking for is the side where Matchbook has the highest juice or vigorish and the difference is 10 or greater than the juice on the opposite side. The reasoning is that they are looking for money to be played on the wrong side so offer lower vigorish. Any questions feel free to ask.
Here are the selections for NFL, NBA, CBB and CFB:
Michigan -4.5 South Alabama -3.5 Memphis -1 Arizona St -1 Montana -1 San Diego +8.5 South Dakota St +3
CFB
Iowa State +2.5 Tenn +5.5
This is a test, not a proven strategy, bet at your own risk. Lets see how they do over a period of time before investing. Good luck in all your wagers.
Sunday games that qualify. After one week will do a tally of the wins and losses by sport.
NBA
Charlotte +11 Win Dallas +6.5 Loss
NCAAB
Wisconsin -4.5 Win Iowa St -5.5 Win N Iowa -6.5 Win NC ST +1 Loss Bradley +10.5 Loss Evansville +5 Loss Mich -1 Win Pepperdine +13 Loss Duke -9.5 Win Ill St -4.5 Win
Interesting observation...the favorites all covered and the dogs all lost in NCABB
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Quote Originally Posted by JimmyJet:
Sunday games that qualify. After one week will do a tally of the wins and losses by sport.
NBA
Charlotte +11 Win Dallas +6.5 Loss
NCAAB
Wisconsin -4.5 Win Iowa St -5.5 Win N Iowa -6.5 Win NC ST +1 Loss Bradley +10.5 Loss Evansville +5 Loss Mich -1 Win Pepperdine +13 Loss Duke -9.5 Win Ill St -4.5 Win
Interesting observation...the favorites all covered and the dogs all lost in NCABB
Cinn -4 Drexel +2.5 ODU -12 Fairfield +7 Loy Md +6 Rider +2.5 Davidson -10.5 Morehead St -13 Utah St +2 Murray St -20.5 Middle Tenn St +18.5 Santa Clara +6 Cal Poly SLO +8 New Mexico St +4
NBA
Miami +1.5 Bulls -2 Hornets +8.5
NCAAF
Boise St +7.5
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Monday Jan 4th, 2010
NCAAB
Cinn -4 Drexel +2.5 ODU -12 Fairfield +7 Loy Md +6 Rider +2.5 Davidson -10.5 Morehead St -13 Utah St +2 Murray St -20.5 Middle Tenn St +18.5 Santa Clara +6 Cal Poly SLO +8 New Mexico St +4
Cinn -4 Loss Drexel +2.5 Win ODU -12 Win Fairfield +7 Loss Loy Md +6 Loss Rider +2.5 Win Davidson -10.5 Win Morehead St -13 Loss Utah St +2 Loss Murray St -20.5 Win Middle Tenn St +18.5 Loss Santa Clara +6 Loss Cal Poly SLO +8 Win New Mexico St +4 Loss
NBA
Miami +1.5 Win Bulls -2 Loss Hornets +8.5 Win
NCAAF
Boise St +7.5 Win
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Quote Originally Posted by JimmyJet:
Monday Jan 4th, 2010
NCAAB
Cinn -4 Loss Drexel +2.5 Win ODU -12 Win Fairfield +7 Loss Loy Md +6 Loss Rider +2.5 Win Davidson -10.5 Win Morehead St -13 Loss Utah St +2 Loss Murray St -20.5 Win Middle Tenn St +18.5 Loss Santa Clara +6 Loss Cal Poly SLO +8 Win New Mexico St +4 Loss
But they do that just to balance the books, they don't know who is going to win the game. Don't they try to get each game as close to 50/50 so they don't lose their shirts and still collect the vig? It's basically teams that are opposite of public faves will get this low vig. So your just fading the public faves. Only problem is sometimes the public faves are right. So even if you pay less vig you still lost your bet.
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But they do that just to balance the books, they don't know who is going to win the game. Don't they try to get each game as close to 50/50 so they don't lose their shirts and still collect the vig? It's basically teams that are opposite of public faves will get this low vig. So your just fading the public faves. Only problem is sometimes the public faves are right. So even if you pay less vig you still lost your bet.
Matchbook doesn't charge vigorish. It only charges a small commission. They don't care who wins because their own money is never at stake. I guess when you are talking about Matchbook you are talking about the consensus odds that are represented by the current offers.
I'm trying to understand the strategy. In this week's playoff game, Cincinnati -2.5 is offered at -106. NY +2.5 is offered at +105.
The strategy is that based on this Cincinnati -2.5 is the better bet....
Is that correct?
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Matchbook doesn't charge vigorish. It only charges a small commission. They don't care who wins because their own money is never at stake. I guess when you are talking about Matchbook you are talking about the consensus odds that are represented by the current offers.
I'm trying to understand the strategy. In this week's playoff game, Cincinnati -2.5 is offered at -106. NY +2.5 is offered at +105.
The strategy is that based on this Cincinnati -2.5 is the better bet....
Matchbook doesn't charge vigorish. It only charges a small commission. They don't care who wins because their own money is never at stake. I guess when you are talking about Matchbook you are talking about the consensus odds that are represented by the current offers.
I'm trying to understand the strategy. In this week's playoff game, Cincinnati -2.5 is offered at -106. NY +2.5 is offered at +105.
The strategy is that based on this Cincinnati -2.5 is the better bet....
Is that correct?
Yes, that is the assumption. I would say though that this test of that strategy shows little value in betting based on this factor. The lines are changing frequently and the juice is also changing so this snapshot of when I monitor the lines seems to have little relevance to the actual results.
In my own betting, where I use Bodog, have noticed but not tracked that the right side is often the side with the highest juice. The side that you would have to pay -115 to -135 to bet. I hesitate to place a bet where am getting +105 because seems those bets always lose. I find myself checking the juice before placing my bets and sometimes just passing when it seems they want my bet too much by offering +105....does that make sense to anyone else? Has anyone tracked this on a consistent basis?
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Quote Originally Posted by tallguyindc:
Matchbook doesn't charge vigorish. It only charges a small commission. They don't care who wins because their own money is never at stake. I guess when you are talking about Matchbook you are talking about the consensus odds that are represented by the current offers.
I'm trying to understand the strategy. In this week's playoff game, Cincinnati -2.5 is offered at -106. NY +2.5 is offered at +105.
The strategy is that based on this Cincinnati -2.5 is the better bet....
Is that correct?
Yes, that is the assumption. I would say though that this test of that strategy shows little value in betting based on this factor. The lines are changing frequently and the juice is also changing so this snapshot of when I monitor the lines seems to have little relevance to the actual results.
In my own betting, where I use Bodog, have noticed but not tracked that the right side is often the side with the highest juice. The side that you would have to pay -115 to -135 to bet. I hesitate to place a bet where am getting +105 because seems those bets always lose. I find myself checking the juice before placing my bets and sometimes just passing when it seems they want my bet too much by offering +105....does that make sense to anyone else? Has anyone tracked this on a consistent basis?
Timing may be the key. When do the majority of the public place their bets and would the public, casual bettors be swayed by lower juice to choose the wrong side? Or is as Hectar notes is this the bookmakers just trying to even their books to make their profit on the juice? Interesting topic for discussion. Have read threads where they watch this factor very closely but have not seen a solid record that shows which way to use this consistently for porfit.
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Timing may be the key. When do the majority of the public place their bets and would the public, casual bettors be swayed by lower juice to choose the wrong side? Or is as Hectar notes is this the bookmakers just trying to even their books to make their profit on the juice? Interesting topic for discussion. Have read threads where they watch this factor very closely but have not seen a solid record that shows which way to use this consistently for porfit.
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