New tweaked YPP system

Question

Lets see how this does.Incorporates YPP, turnovers, kick return yardage, Sagarin power and SOS ratings.Min 30-23Pick: Min -2.5Was 24-17Pick: Was -6Pit 28-17Pick: Cle &#x2B;15Cin 24-20Pick: Hou &#x2B;5.5Jax 31-17Pick: Jax -9.5NO 30-24Pick: NO -3Car 27-20Pick: Car -3Green Bay: 45-20Pick: GB -13.5Phi: 42-14Pick: Phi -13.5Sea: 24-21Pick: Sea -2.5NYJ: 28-17Pick: NYJ -9.5NE: 31-17Pick: NE  -9Atl: 27-20Pick: Atl -3Den: 23-20Pick: Den &#x2B;3.5Please don&#x27;t play these.  I want to see how they do before I go nuts.  No haters please...this is just for shits and giggles.

the_vig · Answer

Lets see how this does.Incorporates YPP, turnovers, kick return yardage, Sagarin power and SOS ratings.Min 30-23Pick: Min -2.5Was 24-17Pick: Was -6Pit 28-17Pick: Cle &#x2B;15Cin 24-20Pick: Hou &#x2B;5.5Jax 31-17Pick: Jax -9.5NO 30-24Pick: NO -3Car 27-20Pick: Car -3Green Bay: 45-20Pick: GB -13.5Phi: 42-14Pick: Phi -13.5Sea: 24-21Pick: Sea -2.5NYJ: 28-17Pick: NYJ -9.5NE: 31-17Pick: NE  -9Atl: 27-20Pick: Atl -3Den: 23-20Pick: Den &#x2B;3.5Please don&#x27;t play these.  I want to see how they do before I go nuts.  No haters please...this is just for shits and giggles.

eganfordos69 · Answer

7-6 for the week, pending MNF. Both dogs in the group covered--does this mean Denver will cover as well???

the_vig · Answer

Hey egan sorry only came back to update this thread now.

Decent showing for the first time trying it out as it went 8-6. I am going to crunch the numbers again and see where things went wrong. Kind of hard to use stats as a predictor for a team like the Eagles not showing up, Vikings giving up 3 TD's in less than 5 mins in the 4th quarter and Sanchez throwing 5 picks. Oh well that's Foozball.

Min 30-23
Pick: Min -2.5

Don't get me started with this one.

Was 24-17
Pick: Was -6

Actually liked the Chiefs here but went with the system. I always go against the Skins when they are favored at home and you should too!

Pit 28-17
Pick: Cle +15

Came close to the final score!

Cin 24-20
Pick: Hou +5.5

Nice outright win

Jax 31-17
Pick: Jax -9.5

Ouch.

NO 30-24
Pick: NO -3

Saints roll.

Car 27-20

Close again!
Pick: Car -3

Green Bay: 45-20

Predicted to win by 25 and they win by 26!

Pick: GB -13.5

Phi: 42-14

Just plain ugly.
Pick: Phi -13.5

Sea: 24-21

Ugly again.
Pick: Sea -2.5

NYJ: 28-17

Up 13-3...then got ugly
Pick: NYJ -9.5

NE: 31-17

Never in doubt
Pick: NE -9

Atl: 27-20

Predicted to win by 7!
Pick: Atl -3

Den: 23-20

Another underdog win.
Pick: Den +3.5

Looking forward to his week 7, let's keep this going!

the_vig · Answer

Ok back for Week 7. Made some tweaks hopefully the fine tuning will improve on the decent showing last week. Lines are current ones from 5dimes.

Indy 39-14
Pick: Indy -13

Chi 22-22 (very close indeed)
Pick: Chi +1.5

GB 35-18
Pick: GB - 8.5

MIN 27-21
Pick: MIN +4

SD 28-26
Pick: KC +4.5

NE 41-13
Pick: NE -14.5

SF 22-22 (Another close one)
Pick: SF +3.5 -125

NYJ 28-18
Pick: NYJ -6

BUF 25-21
Pick: BUF +7.5 -125

NO 32-22
Pick: NO -6.5

ATL 23-19
Pick: ATL +3.5

NYG 25-19
Pick: ARZ +7.5 -125

PHI 28-17
Pick: PHI -6.5 -120

Again these picks are for entertainment purposes only. Don't play these. Just testing out a system still in its infancy stage. Just having fun with it. Let's see how it does.

the_vig · Answer

Another solid week! 8-4 so far!

Total so far: 16-10 @ 62%

Eagles game pending.

Indy 39-14
Pick: Indy -13

Can't believe some thought the Rams would keep this close.

Chi 22-22
Pick: Chi +1.5

Don't even want to think about this one.

GB 35-18
Pick: GB - 8.5

GB seems to be putting it together.

MIN 27-21
Pick: MIN +4

Two return TD's....tough.

SD 28-26
Pick: KC +4.5

Not your same Chiefs anymore.

NE 41-13
Pick: NE -14.5

Predicted to win by 28! Not bad!

SF 22-22
Pick: SF +3.5 -125

Looked bad early

NYJ 28-18
Pick: NYJ -6

I admit this pick scared me a bit.

BUF 25-21
Pick: BUF +7.5 -125

1 ugly team + 1ugly team = ugly game

NO 32-22
Pick: NO -6.5

Like SF, I thought this was a goner.

ATL 23-19
Pick: ATL +3.5

Looked good early.

NYG 25-19
Pick: ARZ +7.5 -125

Underdog straight up win!

PHI 28-17
Pick: PHI -6.5 -120 Pending

butta01 · Answer

keep it coming.........

the_vig · Answer

butta01 McNabb has tossed more TD&#x27;s against WAS than any other team, let&#x27;s hope he adds to that total tonight!

MeekerMadMan · Answer

fun to watch.... lets see next week&#xD;&#xA;good luck!

the_vig · Answer

Thx...Meeker

LoL...Almost got the exact score right tonight!

The Philly win brings it to 9-4 this week.

Total: 17-10 @ 63%

I'm still not happy it could not predict the Chargers covering. I really liked them in that spot but I just went with the system play. I will have to number crunch some more and figure out what went wrong. I can live with the Vikes losing because of 2 turnover return TD's.

Warning: this just a rudimentary formula involving all kinds of stats, nothing groundbreaking here. There is bound to be a losing week. It didn't take a genius to know the Pats, Colts and Pack would all outgain their opponents this week.

I am going to try something new and a bit more complex to get down to the nitty gritty, apply it to Week 7 games and see what it spits out.

the_vig · Answer

Why does the page cut off my text? Grrr.

jkp714 · Answer

nice work

the_vig · Answer

Texas, JKP, Ball Going to post the plays soon, let&#x27;s keep this ball rolling!

the_vig · Answer

Ok back for Week 8. Tweaked it some more with new team stats including strength at the line of scrimmage, but please don't play these. This is very experimental at this point. Blowout teams scores capped at 49 pts.

BAL 28-24:
Pick: BAL -2.5

HOU 27-17
Pick: HOU -2.5

CHI 28-10
Pick: CHI -13

DAL 31-17
Pick: DAL -9.5

MIA 28-23
Pick: MIA +3.5

IND 38-20

Pick: IND -12

NYG 31-27
Pick: NYG +1

DET 21-9
Pick: DET -3

SD 38-9

Pick: SD -16.5

JAX 20-17
Pick: JAX +3.5

GB 31-28
Pick: GB -2.5

ARZ 42-10

Pick: ARZ -9.5

NO 49-20

Pick: NO -10 (surprising score, but ATL is a very lucky 4-2 team, they are last or near last in rush yards allowed per attempt, negative pass play percentage and opponent's 3rd down conversion percentage - if NO can't take advantage of this, then I'll be a monkey's uncle)

If this fails, I'll just go back to what worked last week and stick with those formulas. Anyway let's have some fun and see how these do. Good luck everyone.

the_vig · Answer

Anyone know how to avoid having the text getting cut off at the right?

cruisin · Answer

Could you post the plays from what worked last week for the games this week? Very curious to see what they would be. Thanks for posting all this info, it&#x27;s greatly appreciated.

the_vig · Answer

cruisin that&#x27;s actually a good point.  I should post both and see how they do.  The first ain&#x27;t broke so why fix it I guess right?  Ok I&#x27;ll do that now.  Shouldn&#x27;t take too long, simple copy and pasting.

the_vig · Answer

Holy shit is my face red.I have lost all credibility.  Going back I noticed that one of my formulas for the home team&#x27;s YPP had a typo in it in which it was &#x2B;15 instead of adding the cell B15.  Rechecking it the system went 7-6 again.What dumb luck going 9-4 last week.  Well so much for that system.  Let&#x27;s see how this new one fares.  Sorry about that guys, that&#x27;s what I get for for not sleeping much because the job and 2 babies.Thanks to Cruisin or else I would have never known.  The new tweaked one has more depth to it and I believe will be more accurate, let&#x27;s see how it does.  Again, I recommend not playing for now, especially after this dumbass SNAFU.

the_vig · Answer

Ouch 5-7 so far...started out 5-0 too lol. That's the problem with systems based on stats, it can't integrate teams just not giving a damn that day or that QB thinking about that chick he's been banging after she called him the night before and told him she's pregnant.

Just gotta roll with the punches, hope the Saints cover and see what happens next week.

rm2673 · Answer

hey vig is this system based off of the one on the YPPT thread?and also do you mind you you can email the spreadsheet to me. I created my own for the old YPPT. We can exchange if you like

the_vig · Answer

Hey rm, it was experimental this week, I took offense YPP only,
then downgraded/upgraded it in terms of comparative stats between
the two teams such as 3rd down percentage on Offense and Defense,
Negative pass play % (meaning the team's ability to force a sack, incomplete pass or INT as well as avoiding it on offense), pass rating
differential (passer rating on defense and offense).

The bottom line is, the factors these systems can not project is
emotion, heart and let down effect. That's the human element that
doesn't show up in totals yards or turnover differential. I had the
Ravens covering yes but the game was predicted to be much closer
than it was yesterday. I think we all knew the Ravens were going
to be up for yesterdays game and the Broncos would be in trouble.
But the system said no it will be close. God help us if/when
computers run the world.

Anyway I will upload it to google docs, pm me and I'll send you the
link, let me know what you think.

rm2673 · Answer

apparently we have to be friends before I can pm you. I send the friend request.

New tweaked YPP system

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