nfl betting systems

System 1 - Poor NFL Teams and Totals in Opening Week

What I decided to do is see if these bad teams from a year ago had any predictability in Week 1 of the next season against the total. Chances are they couldn't stop anyone last year, and have put a focus on defense in the draft and the free agent market.

The first thing to do is define a bad team. For the sake of this situation, a bad team is a losing one, any team that lost nine games or more last season. No one can argue that 7-9 or worse was a good season, unless they were a spin master.

What we find is these teams have played to the under at a mark of 85-59-2 good for 59% winners on the low end of the totals in week one games if they are home.

So what happens when these teams play to a high total, do the results get even better, since we have predicated our situation on defensive improvements?

The answer is a resounding yes! If these teams that lost nine or more games last year are playing their first game home to a total of greater than 44, the under is 18-6 for 75% winners.

If we just measure our original situation, of losing nine or more last year and playing at home in week 1, and look at home favorites versus home dogs we see another avenue:
Home Favorite: Under is 40-33 (54.8%)
Home Underdog: Under is 43-25-2 (63.2%)
As you can see home dogs have performed extremely well in this situation. So there you have something to look for in NFL week 1 games, as there has been a huge totals bias on these losing teams from a year ago.

System 2 - NFL Bye Weeks and Totals

The NFL began the bye week back in 1990, so this situation is all inclusive back to the onset of the bye week.

What I want to do is key in on a home favorite after a bye week. These are teams that are perceived as being better than their opponent, that is why the oddsmakers have issued them favorite status for the game. Teams that are better than their opponent, well-rested and playing at home, tend to dominate their opponent with a defense that is fresh.

Looking back at all home favorites after a bye week, a pretty simple notion at that, we see the following results:
169-129 to the under or 56.7% winners! That is just shy of 300 games and a lot of logic, we are connecting on a rock solid 56.7%.

If they truly are the type of team that has the potential to dominate with their defense, then lower totals will define them as such. So, if you take the same situation and the total set for the game is less than 43:
113-72 to the under or 61.1% winners with still a large sample size of nearly 200 games.

We can also look at them as having to be a good team, one that is .500 or better on the season:
These teams are 88-52 to the under or 62.9% winners.

If we make sure it is going to be a competitive game, so they show up with the 'A' game, then we take a new look at them with a line of -6 or less they are 56-21 to the under or 72.7%.

If their opponent scored 28 points or less in their last game they are 46-13 to the under, which is a lofty 78.0%.

If we add one more condition, that being that our play on team's last opponent scored less than 20 points on them (defense playing well), then we get an amazing 27-4 to the under, or 87.1%.

System 3 - NFL Road Dogs Before Bye

Bye weeks did not start until 1990.