Posted:
#1
I have back tested teams which have lost straight up as the largest ATS favorites each week from 2005 to 2012 (ex, 2012 Week 1 New Orleans was -8, but they lost SU). Here is what I found:
3 game chase (weeks 1 to 14), the record is 117-9. Using -110 lines the you would be up 63 units (7.89 units per year). Two years would have lost money.
Game breakdown for the past 8 years:
Game A = 68-58 for 54%
Game B = 37-21 for 64%
Game C = 12-9 for 57%
64% winning percentage is great for NFL. Throw in a labby line and you may be golden, however, in the 2006-07 year, it went 3-5. Number of B games per year varies between 4 and 8.
I will be tracking this a little closer this year. I think I will only play B games on a labby line. (for a team to qualify for a B game, it must loose Game A ATS, not just skip Game A).
All of the information and additional stats can be found here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aut5sPYPWjN6dDFSZmxlbWZVUjFFRkxiRkg3RHB5enc#gid=0
You will see alot of information, including summary of 4 game chases, and chasing not only the top ATS loser, but also top 3 teams.
Let me know what you think.
Good luck this year 
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