Been doing some number collecting and crunching and may have something interesting for the NFL - O/U Sack Proposition.
I am posting here instead of NFL forum because when making plays I am looking at teams past preformances and what they contribute to a sack total, along with the range of sacks from 0 - 6+ and those totals for the season that I have recorded.
Going to try to back test 2010/11 season shortly.
Lets see how it goes and follow at your own risk.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Been doing some number collecting and crunching and may have something interesting for the NFL - O/U Sack Proposition.
I am posting here instead of NFL forum because when making plays I am looking at teams past preformances and what they contribute to a sack total, along with the range of sacks from 0 - 6+ and those totals for the season that I have recorded.
Tenn/Caro - 3.5 Sacks - Under +117 - Tenn has only had a few games get to 4 sacks
Hou/TBay - 3.5 Sacks - Over -105
Wash/Mia - 6 Sacks - Over -101 - both teams get and give a monster amount of sacks
Jac/Indy - 4 Sacks - Over -102 - hope for a push here
Den/KC - 4.5 Sacks- Under -109 - need 5 to win -it could happen?
Buff/Dal - 3.5 Sacks - Under +106 - Buffalo has one game that has 4+ sacks this year
NO/Atl - 4 Sacks - Over -104 - push or better
St. L/Cle - 5.5 Sacks - Under-127 - the numbers look like this should fly over and the juice is high - but 6 or more to win (on an over pick), it could happen - but Balt and Pitts could not get this number last week, why would the Rams and Browns?
Pit/Cin - 4.5 Sacks - Under +124 - would like the number more if it was 5 - I like the plus money it was in Pitts last game for the under and it won.
Thats it for the first games on Sunday. Will see how they go and take it from there.
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Lines are from Pinny
Ari/Phil - 5 Sacks - Over -120
Tenn/Caro - 3.5 Sacks - Under +117 - Tenn has only had a few games get to 4 sacks
Hou/TBay - 3.5 Sacks - Over -105
Wash/Mia - 6 Sacks - Over -101 - both teams get and give a monster amount of sacks
Jac/Indy - 4 Sacks - Over -102 - hope for a push here
Den/KC - 4.5 Sacks- Under -109 - need 5 to win -it could happen?
Buff/Dal - 3.5 Sacks - Under +106 - Buffalo has one game that has 4+ sacks this year
NO/Atl - 4 Sacks - Over -104 - push or better
St. L/Cle - 5.5 Sacks - Under-127 - the numbers look like this should fly over and the juice is high - but 6 or more to win (on an over pick), it could happen - but Balt and Pitts could not get this number last week, why would the Rams and Browns?
Pit/Cin - 4.5 Sacks - Under +124 - would like the number more if it was 5 - I like the plus money it was in Pitts last game for the under and it won.
Thats it for the first games on Sunday. Will see how they go and take it from there.
10 Wins - 5 Loses - By betting to win 1 unit on the -ve and risking 1 unit on the +ve - I should have explained that as the betting strategy for Money Management - I get a total of plus 5.34 Units
You can bet anyway you like. Right now I don't have a favourite play or something that would be considered a higher or lower value play.
Not too bad - will post Week 11 as they become available.
Cheers
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Week 10 -Round up
10 Wins - 5 Loses - By betting to win 1 unit on the -ve and risking 1 unit on the +ve - I should have explained that as the betting strategy for Money Management - I get a total of plus 5.34 Units
You can bet anyway you like. Right now I don't have a favourite play or something that would be considered a higher or lower value play.
Not too bad - will post Week 11 as they become available.
For the first round of Sunday games they are listed as follows:
Buf/Mia - 4 Sacks - Under -120 - Buff has only had one game get to 4 sacks in 9 weeks of playing, Mia has had every week get to 4 or more, this one is tough to say which way it goes
Car/Det -4.5 Sacks - Under -108 - think this one will stay under
Cin/Bal -4.5 Sacks - Over-111 - Cincy had 5 last week themselves, however this week I think both teams will contribute to the total. Balt will want to take out some frustrations
Wash/Dal - 5 Sacks - Over +124 - both rank high up with getting sacks, like the plus money
Jack/Clev -4.5 Sacks - Under +113 - Needing 5 sacks to win makes this one a tough one to take as an over. Both teams are so-so in the sack numbers
Oak/Minn - 5 Sacks - Over +116 - Minny has been a strong team in getting sacks, Oak has been not bad.
TBay/GrBay -4 Sacks -Over - 101 - Think this game can get at least 4, anymore than that and it is a win
Tenn/Atl -3.5 Sack - Under -105 - Seems tough to stay under this but both teams struggle to get the QB
Sea/St. L -5 Sacks -Under +103 - Think this can stay under this total
Will post rest later - BOL
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Nice start of the week with NYJ/Den going Under
For the first round of Sunday games they are listed as follows:
Buf/Mia - 4 Sacks - Under -120 - Buff has only had one game get to 4 sacks in 9 weeks of playing, Mia has had every week get to 4 or more, this one is tough to say which way it goes
Car/Det -4.5 Sacks - Under -108 - think this one will stay under
Cin/Bal -4.5 Sacks - Over-111 - Cincy had 5 last week themselves, however this week I think both teams will contribute to the total. Balt will want to take out some frustrations
Wash/Dal - 5 Sacks - Over +124 - both rank high up with getting sacks, like the plus money
Jack/Clev -4.5 Sacks - Under +113 - Needing 5 sacks to win makes this one a tough one to take as an over. Both teams are so-so in the sack numbers
Oak/Minn - 5 Sacks - Over +116 - Minny has been a strong team in getting sacks, Oak has been not bad.
TBay/GrBay -4 Sacks -Over - 101 - Think this game can get at least 4, anymore than that and it is a win
Tenn/Atl -3.5 Sack - Under -105 - Seems tough to stay under this but both teams struggle to get the QB
Sea/St. L -5 Sacks -Under +103 - Think this can stay under this total
Sorry I did not get Thurday games posted. Will not be added to numbers but the picks went 2-1. Was glad to see in 3rd week of this winnners are happening more often than losers. Hopefully the posted ones for Sunday's game remain with that trend.
Ari/St L - 5.5 Sacks - Under-103 - I know the Ram give up a bunch of sacks but 6 to win is a bunch
Buf/NYJ - 3.5 Sacks - Under -116 - Buf has only had more than 4 sacks once this season.
Caro/Indy - 4 Sacks - Under -116 - both teams low onthe sack numbers
Cle/Cinnci - 4 Sack - Over -103 - think 4 or more can be had in this game
Hous/Jack -4.5 Sacks - Over -104 - Both teams have a good number in the sack totals and Hous has a good defence
Min/Atl -4.5 Sacks - Under -116 - Minny is 2nd in sacks but Atl is terrible. Ponder can run away from trouble
TBay/Tenn - 3.5 Sacks - No play - juice on the Under is too high. Numbers and records say it is under but 4 sacks is not impossible - Again - No Play
Chi/Oak - 4.5 Sacks - Under -108 - Chi has been protecting the QB very well and Cutler has played well.But Cutler is out and I think more runs will be called for offence. I woud take the over if Chi had a better sacking def
NE/Phill- 4 Sacks - Over -112 - surprised this number is not higher - bith teams get after the QB well
Hope to get rest up on Sunday - not sure on the Den/SD game. Good luck with any plays you make
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Sorry I did not get Thurday games posted. Will not be added to numbers but the picks went 2-1. Was glad to see in 3rd week of this winnners are happening more often than losers. Hopefully the posted ones for Sunday's game remain with that trend.
Ari/St L - 5.5 Sacks - Under-103 - I know the Ram give up a bunch of sacks but 6 to win is a bunch
Buf/NYJ - 3.5 Sacks - Under -116 - Buf has only had more than 4 sacks once this season.
Caro/Indy - 4 Sacks - Under -116 - both teams low onthe sack numbers
Cle/Cinnci - 4 Sack - Over -103 - think 4 or more can be had in this game
Hous/Jack -4.5 Sacks - Over -104 - Both teams have a good number in the sack totals and Hous has a good defence
Min/Atl -4.5 Sacks - Under -116 - Minny is 2nd in sacks but Atl is terrible. Ponder can run away from trouble
TBay/Tenn - 3.5 Sacks - No play - juice on the Under is too high. Numbers and records say it is under but 4 sacks is not impossible - Again - No Play
Chi/Oak - 4.5 Sacks - Under -108 - Chi has been protecting the QB very well and Cutler has played well.But Cutler is out and I think more runs will be called for offence. I woud take the over if Chi had a better sacking def
NE/Phill- 4 Sacks - Over -112 - surprised this number is not higher - bith teams get after the QB well
Hope to get rest up on Sunday - not sure on the Den/SD game. Good luck with any plays you make
if the number it low go for the under because the book thinks the sacks will be lower.
if the number is higher hit the over because they think it will be higher.
not sure what that high/low number would be. for example, make4 or 4.5 could be under and 5+ hit the over or something like that.
what you think?
I was thinking of something like that before I started to break teams down week by week. I also tracked the number of sacks each game had.
4 sacks and over has hit so far at a 65% clip in 2011. 5 sacks and over is at 49% Trouble is the number set in the prop ranges from 3.5 to 6, so I am trying to see if there is a filter or something to make certain plays.
So far in 3 weeks and a number of 5.5 sacks or more it has been Under every time. It has been set at that 4 times.
One team that has been crazy in all of this is Buffalo - only once has there been 4 or more sacks in their games (10-1 for Under 4)
So, overall I'm not sure a number can be selected as a point as to which way a game is thought to go.
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Quote Originally Posted by Riceboi:
how would it work if you did this?
if the number it low go for the under because the book thinks the sacks will be lower.
if the number is higher hit the over because they think it will be higher.
not sure what that high/low number would be. for example, make4 or 4.5 could be under and 5+ hit the over or something like that.
what you think?
I was thinking of something like that before I started to break teams down week by week. I also tracked the number of sacks each game had.
4 sacks and over has hit so far at a 65% clip in 2011. 5 sacks and over is at 49% Trouble is the number set in the prop ranges from 3.5 to 6, so I am trying to see if there is a filter or something to make certain plays.
So far in 3 weeks and a number of 5.5 sacks or more it has been Under every time. It has been set at that 4 times.
One team that has been crazy in all of this is Buffalo - only once has there been 4 or more sacks in their games (10-1 for Under 4)
So, overall I'm not sure a number can be selected as a point as to which way a game is thought to go.
Hopefully this week can be a positive one. This weeks picks are:
Houst/Atl - 4 Sacks - Over -103
Caro/Tbay - 3.5 Sacks - Under +103 - this is tough one to stay under but both teams don't get a lot of Sacks
Cinnci/Pitts - 4.5 Sacks - Over +102 - Both teams can add to the total and Big Ben was taken down 5 times last time these guys played
Den/Minn - 5 Sacks - Over +132 - Since week 3 Minny has gotten 5 or better sack total in their games. Bit of a long shot with Tebow running around but he can be caught, so can Ponder
Indy/N Eng - 4 Sacks - not sure on this game - think it should go over but the favourite is the under and it probably will.
KC/Chi -4.5 Sacks - Under -123 - KC is last in sacks - think this one will stay under
NYJ/Wash - 4.5 Sacks - Under +111 - another long shot but who knows it could happen
Oak/Mia - 4.5 Sacks- Over is the play but you gotta spend a lot to take the over - no play
Tenn/Buff - 3.5 Sacks - Buff is 10-1 for staying under 4 sacks. - No play as the juice is high on the under.
BOL
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Hopefully this week can be a positive one. This weeks picks are:
Houst/Atl - 4 Sacks - Over -103
Caro/Tbay - 3.5 Sacks - Under +103 - this is tough one to stay under but both teams don't get a lot of Sacks
Cinnci/Pitts - 4.5 Sacks - Over +102 - Both teams can add to the total and Big Ben was taken down 5 times last time these guys played
Den/Minn - 5 Sacks - Over +132 - Since week 3 Minny has gotten 5 or better sack total in their games. Bit of a long shot with Tebow running around but he can be caught, so can Ponder
Indy/N Eng - 4 Sacks - not sure on this game - think it should go over but the favourite is the under and it probably will.
KC/Chi -4.5 Sacks - Under -123 - KC is last in sacks - think this one will stay under
NYJ/Wash - 4.5 Sacks - Under +111 - another long shot but who knows it could happen
Oak/Mia - 4.5 Sacks- Over is the play but you gotta spend a lot to take the over - no play
Tenn/Buff - 3.5 Sacks - Buff is 10-1 for staying under 4 sacks. - No play as the juice is high on the under.
SNF is Det/NO- 3.5 Sacks - both teams have been going Under 4 for the last 2 or 3 games, Suh is out, taking the Under at -105, we'll see what happens.
Will probably shut this down after tonight. 2 nice weeks to start followed by 2 weak ones. Thought I had someting but I want to do some refining and tweaks to improve the predictions
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This week has sucked now as well.
Think today stands at 2-5-1.
SNF is Det/NO- 3.5 Sacks - both teams have been going Under 4 for the last 2 or 3 games, Suh is out, taking the Under at -105, we'll see what happens.
Will probably shut this down after tonight. 2 nice weeks to start followed by 2 weak ones. Thought I had someting but I want to do some refining and tweaks to improve the predictions
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