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Prioritizing Information Question

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Prospect
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Joined: Sep, 2012
Posts: 9
Posted: #1
I wasn't sure if this was the appropriate place to post this or not, and the question reeks of someone naive to the sports wagering world, but I'd appreciate any insight, thanks!

-With the amount of electronic access one has to the sports world, it's hard to not to get lost in the details, and where to even start when it comes to formulating a wager. In your opinion, where should one start in analyzing all this data?... Line moves? Public (Sharp vs Square) Consensus?, Performance Stats? or a combination of everything?

Thanks for the insight!
 
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Joined: Jan, 2010
Posts: 1304
Posted: #2
Core

Great question! Information overload can make every potential wager seem like the right one. I struggle with this myself 'filtering out the noise' so to speak. I feel 'stats' are what matters most. Handicap a game and start to learn from your results. Analyze them the day after and learn from your mistakes. The key is to develop a style, formula, strategy whatever you want to call it and make your own plays. In time you will begin to 'zone' in on certain aspects. Personally i feel consensus plays, sharp/square is all irrelevant. There can be something said for line movement but again I don't think plays should be made strictly on the movement of a line. Sports wagering is so personal and everyone has a 'goto' of what they feel gives them an edge. Others will chime in hear with completely different opinions and insight. I believe no one is right or wrong the key is to make money over the long term however possible.

I know I didn't give you a clear cut answer....but the best answer I can give is learn to handicap games, start small, focus on one sport and learn it from a wagering perspective.

Good luck moving forward as this is a tough gig, I've been at it for a few years and still trying to find my way!

Keep it fun!
 
Prospect
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Joined: Nov, 2012
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Posted: #3
Look at the most used systems on this board. They are usually the more updated threads if you are not sure. Once you see the good systems, look at their rules, filters and records to get a good idea as to what is important.

Most of the systems on here don't look at tedious amounts of data, but rather a few data points to calculate what is important.

Another good idea is to read the experts picks and why they are picking a certain way. You will see a pattern develop in their logic and eventually you will do it on your own.

Or you can just pick what we tell you.
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by CoRe81:

I wasn't sure if this was the appropriate place to post this or not, and the question reeks of someone naive to the sports wagering world, but I'd appreciate any insight, thanks!

-With the amount of electronic access one has to the sports world, it's hard to not to get lost in the details, and where to even start when it comes to formulating a wager. In your opinion, where should one start in analyzing all this data?... Line moves? Public (Sharp vs Square) Consensus?, Performance Stats? or a combination of everything?

Thanks for the insight!

Welcome to the jungle we've got fun and games
We've got everything you want sonny, we know the names
We are the people tha can find whatever you may need
If you got the money sonny we got your disease

Good luck to you sir 
 
Prospect
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Joined: Nov, 2012
Posts: 99
Posted: #5
All these years and I thought it was honey not sonny.
 
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Posts: 12012
Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by CoRe81:

I wasn't sure if this was the appropriate place to post this or not, and the question reeks of someone naive to the sports wagering world, but I'd appreciate any insight, thanks!

-With the amount of electronic access one has to the sports world, it's hard to not to get lost in the details, and where to even start when it comes to formulating a wager. In your opinion, where should one start in analyzing all this data?... Line moves? Public (Sharp vs Square) Consensus?, Performance Stats? or a combination of everything?

Thanks for the insight!

I'll give you some strong advice brother. If you have not starting gambling yet, then don't. The deck is stacked against you in every direction. Two type of gamblers, LOSERS and LIARS. You may go on the run here and there, but everybody ends up a loser. I wish that I could have kicked this disease a while ago. You have to be correct 80 % of the time to make this profitable. Vegas and these off shore books did not get wealthy by people winning all the time. I wish you well, but the best bet is no bet. 
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by NoSoLucky:

All these years and I thought it was honey not sonny.

You are correct, I just thought it was inappropriate to call him honey! 
 
Veteran
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Posts: 3652
Posted: #8
Excellent question.   I would agree with Raineres but that's no fun.  In my opinion - the key is thinking about the sport and recognizing the key drivers.  For example, baseball it's pitching, so analyze pitchers.   In football, you can get lost with all the data and how to sort it so it can help you pick winners - I use team ranks for the major categories - off. passing, rushing, def. passing, rushing - you also have to consider schedule strength and ranks of teams - look at sagarin's website.   Basketball - the key drivers are, assists, turnover, shooting def. rank of teams and schedule strength.    Last but most importantly you must consider the opening line - the oddsmakers are very smart people - there is a reason they put a particular number on a game.  If your analysis is always leading you to take the best team on paper - you will lose.  Best of luck to you.
 
 
Prospect
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Joined: Feb, 2009
Posts: 136
Posted: #9

Unless you're ready to devote the hours of a full-time job to it, I'd suggest just letting someone else do the hard work for you.  While 95% of the services out there are garbage scams, if you can find an outfit that's honest with a long track record of success you'll be miles ahead.  From my experience, I've found that Sports Insights is a good place to start, not only for picks, but they have some advanced tools that the pros use if you really want to do your own work. 

Good luck

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