Isn't it better to leave teams like Pittsburgh, Arizona, Baltimore out of the Fav to run line system??
I find it a good idea to bet them as a dog but I think you will delete a lot of losing series if you don't bet those teams on the run line.
What do you guys think??
I checked Pittsburgh and Arizona for 2005 and they had in total 4 losing series on the Run Line and only 1 as SU dogs. But those 4 losses from the run line = 60% And thanks to that you don't have any profit of the system for those teams in a whole season!
So maybe what you can do is: wait till april is over and than elminate the <40% teams on the -1,5 system. But do bet on them as SU dogs. What do you guys think ???
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Another important question!
Isn't it better to leave teams like Pittsburgh, Arizona, Baltimore out of the Fav to run line system??
I find it a good idea to bet them as a dog but I think you will delete a lot of losing series if you don't bet those teams on the run line.
What do you guys think??
I checked Pittsburgh and Arizona for 2005 and they had in total 4 losing series on the Run Line and only 1 as SU dogs. But those 4 losses from the run line = 60% And thanks to that you don't have any profit of the system for those teams in a whole season!
So maybe what you can do is: wait till april is over and than elminate the <40% teams on the -1,5 system. But do bet on them as SU dogs. What do you guys think ???
sorry about late response, i just saw the question.
I think you can probably do this and be fine, but heres my thinking as to why im not gonna change. yes these teams are terrible and dont win many games, but when these teams are favorites its usually because they have their #1 pitcher throwing and or are usually at home. obviously teams like this will never be big favorites meaning -110 to -130 so when they are on run line they will be +160 or more. so since we know most wins (70%) are usualy won by more then 1 run dog or favorite i will continue taking my chance on winning 1 of 4 at +odds by more then 1 run. hope this helps
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sorry about late response, i just saw the question.
I think you can probably do this and be fine, but heres my thinking as to why im not gonna change. yes these teams are terrible and dont win many games, but when these teams are favorites its usually because they have their #1 pitcher throwing and or are usually at home. obviously teams like this will never be big favorites meaning -110 to -130 so when they are on run line they will be +160 or more. so since we know most wins (70%) are usualy won by more then 1 run dog or favorite i will continue taking my chance on winning 1 of 4 at +odds by more then 1 run. hope this helps
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