Posted:
#1
Not sure if you've heard of it, but there is a system where you take the largest ML of the day and play it on the -1 or -1.5 Run line for a chase of 4 games. I've seen people post data for this, but I have a different angle and I'm not sure if it can be back tested or how to do so.
I don't mind doing some leg work, but not sure where to go for the data. I'd like to back test a couple years and find results for either the ML, -1.5 RL or -1 Line for a 4 game chase. -1.5 RL is ideal, as this is where the real value is because of the +odds.
We know a team on the road is guaranteed more at bats than a team playing at home, which makes the probability to score more runs higher. In addition to looking at the highest ML home or away, what if we just looked for the highest opening ML Road team and played that on either the ML/-1/-1.5 line for 4 game chase. Sometimes the largest ML favorite of the day will be -110+ odds, which creates a great RL number. Been solid so far this year.
Appreciate any feedback or assistance !!!
I don't mind doing some leg work, but not sure where to go for the data. I'd like to back test a couple years and find results for either the ML, -1.5 RL or -1 Line for a 4 game chase. -1.5 RL is ideal, as this is where the real value is because of the +odds.
We know a team on the road is guaranteed more at bats than a team playing at home, which makes the probability to score more runs higher. In addition to looking at the highest ML home or away, what if we just looked for the highest opening ML Road team and played that on either the ML/-1/-1.5 line for 4 game chase. Sometimes the largest ML favorite of the day will be -110+ odds, which creates a great RL number. Been solid so far this year.
Appreciate any feedback or assistance !!!
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