Sagarin, Sonny Moore and Massey

Recently I began to put together a system using these three rating systems. I began tracking it after the All Star break. After 23 games (and I know this is a small number) one thing that has stood out is that it is 9-0 SU when the visiting team has been projected to win. What it has also shown is that the three times the road fave was projected to cover, they didn't, and the six times they were projected not to cover, they did. I also broke the difference vs spread down. When the difference vs the spread has been less than one, the home fave has covered whether they were projected to or not (4-0). When the difference vs the spread has been between 1.01 and 2.00 the home fave has not covered whether they were projected to or not (0-4). I don't know how this will be affected with all the trades that have taken place and will continue to track it. The way my system is put together is:

Sagarin: Add Rating + Home Advantage together

Sonny Moore: Add PR + Home Advantage together

Massey: Add Rating + Power + Offense + Defense + HA together and divide by 5

Add the three totals together and divide by 3.

Subtract the lower from the higher to get your number.

I would appreciate any input that is constructive. 

I tried doing what you have laid out but it doesnt seem right.

The Massey numbers cause the amount to be way to low..maybe i did it wrong or looked in the wrong spot can you explain the massey numbers

thx

You probably did it right. The numbers aren't supposed to give you a projected score. Here are Utah/GS numbers for Massey:

Utah: .93/5.12/102.62/2.46 divided by 5 = 22.23

GS: -1.51/-5.83/106.44/-12.3/5.41 divided by 5 = 18.44

Now add Sagarin and SM

Utah is 94.53/83.93/22.23 divided by 3 = 66.90

GS is 89.04/79.54/18/44 divided by 3 = 62.34

Utah is +4.56

Based on the small sampling since the All Star break, when the number (+4.56) is lower than the spread (-6), the visiting fave has covered the spread.

Thank you