My idea about a SD/LAD Parlay was fairly well received. Here is another idea I have been trying out and is going well. I'm up a bit and I don't think enough people look at this forum to significantly alter the daily lines so here goes.....
We all know The Great Tony Stoffo's Underdog System:
Nothing over +150
Never for a team on a 3+ game losing streak
Never against a team on a 3+ winning streak
Never against a Top 20 Pitcher using Jeff Sagerin's Rankings
He also suggests a side bet - Whenever two top 20 Pitchers face each other, take the under
Here is where Mr. Stoffo's Book, not yet 20 years old, is already becoming a bit old. I have never seen Sagerin's Rankings. Maybe they used to be out there every day, but he appears to have buttoned up. I did some research and concluded SIERA and xFIP are the best sabermetric predictors of future performance.
Also, the game has changed. Starters don't go deep into games. 28 year old Cy Young Award Winner Blake Snell has pitched in the 7th inning twice in his career. Twice!! The Padres came up with the first save specialist (Trevor Hoffman) and other teams have followed. Now teams have 8th inning specialists, 7th inning specialists, and lefty specialists. Some bullpens these days are so lethal that other teams are looking at a 6 inning game.
Here is what I have been doing:
I took the Top 20 in SIERA and xFIP from the 2020 season. 19 pitchers were on both lists. That gave me 21 pitchers. Two were injured to start the season so that makes 19. I am using last years stats for this April and I plan to update my list on the 1st of every month during the season.
When 2 Pitchers from my list face each other, I take not the under for the entire game but the under for the 5 inning line. No worries about extra inning games as well.
I also made a fairly square list of the best of the best: Bauer, Cole, Darvish, Greinke, and DeGrom. Simply take under 1.5 runs for whatever team they are facing for the first 5 innings. Note that it is best when two from the Top 20 face each other because the under is usually 4 or 4.5.
Here is the other 50% of the system: How to bet on it
Again I take from The Great Stoffo. I use his 2 - 6 format. You only need to win 2 out of 6 bets. As soon as you win 2 bets, start over.
His progression is:
1x, 2x, 4x, 6x, 8x, 12x = 33x
This is based on -110. Since these pitchers are well known aces, the odds tend to be around -150. I came up with:
1x, 3x, 6x, 9x, 12x, 18x = 49x
Remember win 2 and you are done.
This is not a strict system. If DeGrom is on the road in Col or LAD, wait for Mia or SF. You only need 2 wins. So far I am up. I successfully chased one set of head to head top 20 and am on game 3 waiting on 1 more win in another set. So far Bauer and Darvish are 1 - 0, Cole and Greinke are 1 - 1 and 0 - 0 with DeGrom, although I would be 3 - 0 with him had I come up with this sooner.
Good Luck
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