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system plays 1/19/2011

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Posted: #1
NHL (back to back fade minn)
Calgary SU

I've refined these plays, and I know they're gold now.  Don't even try to fade me now people. 

NBA
Clev / Phe Under 214.5 ( no crossover )
Utah / NJ Under 193 ( no crossover )
Memphis / NO Over 184 ( With Crossover of excel spreadsheet )

Let's distance the system's record further away from .500 tonight.  28-26, and after a week, I'll post all three types of system plays records individually.  

system spread
system total w/crossover
system total no crossover

 
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Posted: #2

I reevaluated the NBA; it's now gold, and you all jump ship? 

Well, I'm looking at the scores for 3 of the games.  It's looking like a 4-0 night as the 4th games is a back-to-back golden fade. 

 
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Posted: #3

The NHL version (with the Wild) is nowhere near the NFL or basketball.  The problem is you don't get hardly any plays with basketball or the NFL. 

One thing I've learned over time is to not count your chickens before they hatch. 

 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by tafter12:


NHL (back to back fade minn)
Calgary SU

I've refined these plays, and I know they're gold now.  Don't even try to fade me now people. 



Looks like 2-2.. looks like average results in all threads started on a daily basis..

I capped the NHL game and got Minnesota with a nice edge.. and for some reason I saw this and talked myself out of playing it. I wish I had looked at DJ's thread and saw him on the Wild too, I would have made it a 5% play, cuz when DJ and I are both on the same NHL play, it's been 100% money.. There's absolutely no reason why anyone should have been on Calgary tonight if they handicapped the game the way games should be handicapped..

For this very reason, this is exactly why Systems will always fail..
you can make all the videos you want, but in the end you'll gain no bigger edge than anything else.

For humor tho.. can you please explain why the Wild were a Fade play tonight? Make me understand the edge your System saw..?

 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:



Looks like 2-2.. looks like average results in all threads started on a daily basis..

I capped the NHL game and got Minnesota with a nice edge.. and for some reason I saw this and talked myself out of playing it. I wish I had looked at DJ's thread and saw him on the Wild too, I would have made it a 5% play, cuz when DJ and I are both on the same NHL play, it's been 100% money.. There's absolutely no reason why anyone should have been on Calgary tonight if they handicapped the game the way games should be handicapped..

For this very reason, this is exactly why Systems will always fail..
you can make all the videos you want, but in the end you'll gain no bigger edge than anything else.

For humor tho.. can you please explain why the Wild were a Fade play tonight? Make me understand the edge your System saw..?



How exactly should games be handicapped? 

I agree with you that "systems" aren't the way to go, but I have to disagree with your statement on Calgary.

Calgary opened as a -135 favourite and closed at -155, so unless you believe the market is terribly inefficient, it appears there were actually several good reasons to be on Calgary tonight.
 
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Posted: #6
I am a goofball for shooting my wad before I ripped a perfect night; but I' not worried, a perfect night is in the very near future.  I'm certainly not going to mind fading Minnesota for their next game. 

But, yes, I am brutal for being cocky. It seems to get us (me) every time !

 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by alldayinvestor:

The NHL version (with the Wild) is nowhere near the NFL or basketball.  The problem is you don't get hardly any plays with basketball or the NFL. 

One thing I've learned over time is to not count your chickens before they hatch. 



Travis,
thanks for taking it easy on me; I do deserve much worse treatment.  Back to the drawing board tomorrow. 

Note to all....,
I've been at 50% pretty much every night.  . . I've had 1-3 a couple times, and a perfect night is hopefully in the cards soon 
 
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by jimmyrickards:



How exactly should games be handicapped? 

I agree with you that "systems" aren't the way to go, but I have to disagree with your statement on Calgary.

Calgary opened as a -135 favourite and closed at -155, so unless you believe the market is terribly inefficient, it appears there were actually several good reasons to be on Calgary tonight.


Yes.. how silly of me. The Public Squares jumped all over Calgary and shot the line up all day long.. therefore there must have been ample reason why the Flames should have won.. what was I thinking?! 

The market inefficient..?? Could that even be possible?? 
 
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Posted: #9
Why would people on Calgary be the squares today kreatture?  Don't the public have a bad habit of looking at recent results?  Such as seeing Minnesota dismantling there last couple opponents going in to face a pretty f'n lathargic Flames squad.  I'm not trying to start a pissing match.  I was just wondering why you think Calgary is the public play rather than the Wild today. 
 
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Posted: #10
tell ya what?  Ill be fading Minnesota until they lose

i may even fade the the next two games even if they lose the 1st one

4-1, 5-0, 6-0?  they aren't NE from a few years ago
goalies are human beings last I checked


 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:



Looks like 2-2.. looks like average results in all threads started on a daily basis..

I capped the NHL game and got Minnesota with a nice edge.. and for some reason I saw this and talked myself out of playing it. I wish I had looked at DJ's thread and saw him on the Wild too, I would have made it a 5% play, cuz when DJ and I are both on the same NHL play, it's been 100% money.. There's absolutely no reason why anyone should have been on Calgary tonight if they handicapped the game the way games should be handicapped..

For this very reason, this is exactly why Systems will always fail..
you can make all the videos you want, but in the end you'll gain no bigger edge than anything else.

For humor tho.. can you please explain why the Wild were a Fade play tonight? Make me understand the edge your System saw..?


maybe your screen name should be Johnny Jealous?  I love making those videos, and quite honestly I've had a large amount of positive feedback from them. 
All the system plays have been explained and can be found in the website forum. 
I don't claim to be able to pick a winner on every pick; however, I KNOW that these plays will yield just as good of percentages as the pros. 
I come in peace, but if anyone jabs at me, they'll get hit for sure.
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by tafter12:


maybe your screen name should be Johnny Jealous?  I love making those videos, and quite honestly I've had a large amount of positive feedback from them. 
All the system plays have been explained and can be found in the website forum. 
I don't claim to be able to pick a winner on every pick; however, I KNOW that these plays will yield just as good of percentages as the pros. 
I come in peace, but if anyone jabs at me, they'll get hit for sure.


Not sure why I would be jealous or why you would say that. I haven't seen any of your videos, there is no link to a video in here?
I just asked why Minnesota was a fade play, that's all.. you started things by saying it was like a guaranteed lock pick and I was just stating that I capped the game and came up with Minnesota having an edge, and wanted to know how your system capped the game to give Calgary the edge.

Good Luck with your future results 
 
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Posted: #13
"For this very reason, this is exactly why Systems will always fail..
you can make all the videos you want, but in the end you'll gain no bigger edge than anything else."  <---wrong dude my bad.

we're cool

it's called an 8 goal swing

carolina and toronto are exactly that

I found it as a way to mimic the 50 pt swing in the NFL.  How did I do that?  I understand mean and standard deviations, and in the NFL per game the STD = 10 and the STD in NHL = 1.6

10*5 = 50
1.6*5 = 8

I had the wrong guy, and i do apologize once again.



 
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Posted: #14
oh no that was you .... oh well whatever dude.  we can be cool i guess
 
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Posted: #15

People are going to be skeptical without backtested results for this.  That i why I asked you when you first started all this if you had past results.  The only way to prove it works is to keep doing what your doing so we can all see the proof in the pudding. 

I don't think Kreatture meant ill-will,but his post really did come off as my shit don't stink, but yours does. I think it was uncalled for coming in this thread and saying it how he did.  It is one thing to question a selection, but it is another to rip a guy's record.  A record that is very similar to Kreattures thread also.  It wasn't needed. 

Looks like your having a good nite, just stick to the grind.  You do get cocky (premature also) and that is probably why that post was constructed like that.

 
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Posted: #16
While I'm cashing in on my Gold. I'll post my results.  Then after sometime passes, people can use my posted record as their "back tested results."

Thanks for your input; there was probably no ill will there.  I feel like John Meynard Keynes.  He had every right to be confident b/c he was just smarter than most people he encountered. 

Think about it Travis, I'm using Karl Gauss Number Theory with the information I've read from Professional sports handicapping to make the calls.  There's no reason to not feel very confident in these plays. 

Conan Obrien will be calling me in less than two years, I hope. 
I'll be thanking all of you guys for supporting and grinding it with me for sure. 


Thanks so much for your input. 
 
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Posted: #17
In order to lose a game tonight, and go 2-1, Eric Gordon had to set near NBA career records from behind the arc in order to miss that under.   

a very good streak is about to happen for me soon.  go ahead and doubt me ship jumpers.  I'll be thinking of you when I'm on my way to the bank. 
 
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Posted: #18
Anybody see any CJT system plays for today/tonight?
I looked, and don't see any, but I have been known for missing a couple. 

Thanks for reading and following.  Travis?  How ya doin boss?  
 
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Posted: #19
i wouldn't say anyone is doubting you, people are skeptical by nature. I just wish you made it easier to read and keep track of.
 
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by primetime27:

i wouldn't say anyone is doubting you, people are skeptical by nature. I just wish you made it easier to read and keep track of.

points well taken prime time. 
I hope my new post suffices.
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