Posted:
#1
Hey guys,
I'm noob at sportsbetting - and my english is not that good - so please be kind with me !
I try to figure out some things - and get in trouble doing so, nose bleeding I would say. Here is one of my tricky spot :
Imagine i follow a tipster advice. Says this tipster have a proved 10% ROI (return on investment) for a decent sample size,
When he post a tips, he give the line - and the odd. For this exemple, we say +150. But by the time I put my wage on it - the line moved and the best avalaible odd is now +140.
Here I want to understand how this move impact on the supposed ROI of every single line. The line reward me less - but in another side, the fact it moved that way may be a signal that money goes on that line - so the play was (or is still) pretty good to start with,
If we take a +150 line that moved to +170, the scenario is quite different. The ''reward'' if I get it right is higher, but the fact the line move that way may be a signal that the line was notthat good at all from the start.
So HOW can I react to such lines move ? I realy try to figure out the maths behind it - but im still miles from an answers.
So if someone can help me understand it, I would appreciate a lot.
Thanks
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