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Im trying to make a NHL "prediction system". It's not predict the exact score (not at this point though..), but to give a pointer on what team wins... This is not complete yet as I have yet to break up the goalies, but I hope for some inputs on this...
# System Nr. 1 (basic starting point)
First I started out simple (it actualy predicted the right result in the BOS@NYI game, but I think it was pure luck..).
* Team Score = G/G + Opponents GA/G + Opponent Goalie GAA : 3
I tried it out on the 2 earlie games, but I belive it got a to low maximum score...
* DAL: 2.20 + 2.60 + 2.80 : 3 = 2.53
* PIT: 3.20 + 3.00 + 4.00 : 3 = 3.40
* BOS 2.40 + 4.00 + 3.40 : 3 = 3.26
* NYI 3.40 + 2.80 + 2.40 : 3 = 2.86
Then I tried to make it more accurate... (im gonna break it down)
* GS/G = ((Gf-PPGf) + (OGa-PPGa) + (OGGaA)) : 3 + PPGf
PIT L5 avg
PP against: 4.00
PP for....: 2.40
----------------
PP GA.....: 0.60
PP GF.....: 1.00
----------------
GF - PPGf : 2.20
GA - PPGa : 2.60
DAL L5 avg
PP against: 3.60
PP for....: 4.00
----------------
PP GA.....: 0.60
PP GF.....: 0.60
----------------
GF - PPGf : 1.60
GA - PPGa : 2.40
Here you got a list of avg of PP's, PK's, PP goals against, PP goals for, Goal scored - PP goals and Goal against - PP goal against in their L5 games...
1. PP Goals for % Prediction
PPGf% = PPGf% + Opponenet PPGa% : 2
PIT = 41.7 + 16.7 : 2 = 29.2
DAL = 15.0 + 15.0 : 2 = 15.0
2. PP Attempts Prediction
PPAG = PPG + Opponent PPGa : 2
PIT: 2.40 + 3.60 : 2 = 3.00
DAL: 4.00 + 4.00 : 2 = 4.00
3. PP Goals for Prediction
PPGf = Attempts : 100 x PPGf% x 2 (Defense + Offense)
PIT: 3 : 100 x 29.2 = 0.876 x 2 = 1.752 = 2
DAL: 4 : 100 x 15.0 = 0.600 x 2 = 1.200 = 1
4. Predicted "Result"
PIT: (2.20 + 2.40 + 4.00) : 3 + 2 = 4.867 = 5
DAL: (1.60 + 2.60 + 2.80) : 3 + 1 = 3.333 = 3
The DAL@PIT result was of by only a goal, but the BOS@NYI game ended up on 4-4....
I belive breaking down goalie stats would give a even more correct result (if the formula I got is even close to something, lol..)
As im new to breaking down stats into formulas and have just started to try to understand Sabermetrics I hope for some inputs and help if someone got the time and want to....
If there is something you dont understand, just ask...
# System Nr. 1 (basic starting point)
First I started out simple (it actualy predicted the right result in the BOS@NYI game, but I think it was pure luck..).
* Team Score = G/G + Opponents GA/G + Opponent Goalie GAA : 3
I tried it out on the 2 earlie games, but I belive it got a to low maximum score...
* DAL: 2.20 + 2.60 + 2.80 : 3 = 2.53
* PIT: 3.20 + 3.00 + 4.00 : 3 = 3.40
* BOS 2.40 + 4.00 + 3.40 : 3 = 3.26
* NYI 3.40 + 2.80 + 2.40 : 3 = 2.86
Then I tried to make it more accurate... (im gonna break it down)
* GS/G = ((Gf-PPGf) + (OGa-PPGa) + (OGGaA)) : 3 + PPGf
PIT L5 avg
PP against: 4.00
PP for....: 2.40
----------------
PP GA.....: 0.60
PP GF.....: 1.00
----------------
GF - PPGf : 2.20
GA - PPGa : 2.60
DAL L5 avg
PP against: 3.60
PP for....: 4.00
----------------
PP GA.....: 0.60
PP GF.....: 0.60
----------------
GF - PPGf : 1.60
GA - PPGa : 2.40
Here you got a list of avg of PP's, PK's, PP goals against, PP goals for, Goal scored - PP goals and Goal against - PP goal against in their L5 games...
1. PP Goals for % Prediction
PPGf% = PPGf% + Opponenet PPGa% : 2
PIT = 41.7 + 16.7 : 2 = 29.2
DAL = 15.0 + 15.0 : 2 = 15.0
2. PP Attempts Prediction
PPAG = PPG + Opponent PPGa : 2
PIT: 2.40 + 3.60 : 2 = 3.00
DAL: 4.00 + 4.00 : 2 = 4.00
3. PP Goals for Prediction
PPGf = Attempts : 100 x PPGf% x 2 (Defense + Offense)
PIT: 3 : 100 x 29.2 = 0.876 x 2 = 1.752 = 2
DAL: 4 : 100 x 15.0 = 0.600 x 2 = 1.200 = 1
4. Predicted "Result"
PIT: (2.20 + 2.40 + 4.00) : 3 + 2 = 4.867 = 5
DAL: (1.60 + 2.60 + 2.80) : 3 + 1 = 3.333 = 3
The DAL@PIT result was of by only a goal, but the BOS@NYI game ended up on 4-4....
I belive breaking down goalie stats would give a even more correct result (if the formula I got is even close to something, lol..)
As im new to breaking down stats into formulas and have just started to try to understand Sabermetrics I hope for some inputs and help if someone got the time and want to....
If there is something you dont understand, just ask...
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