Umpire Chase Test

Marking two umpires to start off with as notorious under umpires. I feel like an under ump has a better chance at impacting the game than an over ump. An over ump can make a strike zone tighter, but he can't impact where the ball is hit or if contact will be made, in fact.

Doug Eddings and Jeff Nelson are two early umps I'm going to try this with. Might add a couple more. It scares me just how many unders Ron Kulpa and Brian Gorman have had thus far...think Vegas will really start adjusting here. Eddings and Nelson are both historically under umps who haven't had big-time under #s this year. I am basing #s off of K/BB rate (higher the #, more Ks, less BBs means larger strike zone) and H/BB per inning (this is slightly variable based on the fact that hits are dependent on hitters).

Contemplating between a straight chase or a Labouchere Line play.

Tonight:
SEA/CLE under 8.5 -114
(Doug Eddings HP)

My units to start are very small. This is more speculative than anything. Tail at your own risk.

By the way, Jeff Nelson will be at home plate on Sunday for DET@NYY.

Umpires certainly do have an impact on games.

I will be interested in watching this and seeing how you do.
BOL andy 

1-0. Fairly lucky there. Also adding in J. Hirshbeck, M. Estabrook, P. Cuzzi to my watch and probable play list.

To clear things up, I'm going with Labouchere to counter the trends that may occur. Trying to decide between ONE line for all or a line for each umpire. Minimizing risk is the goal, obviously. Thoughts are appreciated.

I think having a line for each would work.

I think it would be less likely to see 1 consistent over/under ump have a long string of opposites, whereas if you are testing 4 or 5 umps it would be far more likely for them all to say, go on a 2 game opposite streak all at the same time.

Thanks for the input, kreatture. I tend to agree with that. I need to do some research on trends but it will take some more work. Wish there were aggregated game logs for umpires.

07/18: no plays today

Overall YTD: 1-0

07/19:
DET/NYY under 9.5 -104 (Jeff Nelson)
CHC /WAS under 9 +134 (Mike Estabrook)
ARI/STL under 9 -107 (John Hirschbeck)

Waiting for the NYY and STL unders to lock on MB. CHC/WAS is a heavily over favored game so that will be interesting.

Okay, went 2-1 today. Nelson and Hirschbeck both called 2-1 score games (lucky that Joba was on today), but the gas can Garrett Mock got lit up by CHC.

So we are 3-1 so far...probably no plays tomorrow. Eddings will be umping a Tuesday or Wednesday game. Gonna see where Cuzzi's crew is placed.

Nothijng today. Eddings will be behind the dish tomorrow in Washington. I hope to God that line is high because any under with Ollie Perez is flat out scary.

Cuzzi will be at HP for MIN/OAK tomorrow.

Nelson and Hirschbeck are both at 3rd tonight and will go through a full rotation. Estabrook is an AAA umpire who fills in so we'll see about him. He's not on a crew today, but there are a few series that start tomorrow.

With the assumption that each line started off as (for simplicity's sake)
1u 1u 1u 1u

07/21:

Eddings line @ 1 1
NYM/WAS u9 @-108 to win 2u

Cuzzi line @ 1 1 1 1
MIN/OAK u8.5 @-101 to win 2u

Hit both tonight. Actually spot played both of them for a play larger amount than these system plays, but it's nice to see these hitting. Eddings' first line is cleared...

So Estabrook was at 2nd in the AZ/COL game, but that series ends tomorrow. So we will not see him this series...which might actaully be a good thing haha being at Coors.

Hirschbeck's crew got the last series off so we'll see how that rotation works if they're umping tonight. Haven't figured out how time off and stuff works since there are 17 crews for 30 teams...so essentially two extra crews.

Estabrook and Nelson would be behind the dish today had their respective series not ended. So we'll see if they start again today or tomorrow...stay tuned.

None of these crews are in NY or PHI, by the way.

no plays tonight.

TB/TOR under 7.5 @-122
Estabrook
for 2.52 units (Labouchere)

I am actaully spot playing this for a considerably larger amount so I liekd this play before the ump was released, lol.

Love the Under here as well andy, should be a showcase of pitching perfection at Roger's Center tonight!!

Cheers 

The second play tonight was Jeff Nelson behind the dish with FLA/LAD under 7 @102.

TB/TOR under hit, although I also had TOR -1 in my rl blitz...so it was bittersweet for sure.

Current lines:

Cuzzi 1 1
Eddings 1 1 1 1 (line #2...line #1 was cleared)
Estabrook 1 1 1
Hirschbeck 1 1
Nelson 1 1 2

Weird thing is that Cuzzi was at 3rd on Wednesday for OAK/MIN and was listed as 3rd again last night in another series...I'll have to look into this a bit more.

Eddings is behind home for SF/COL. Scary, I know.

I hate it when under umps are in clear over game situations.

But a system's a system...

KC/BAL under 10.5 (Hirschbeck)
SD/CIN under 9.5 (Cuzzi)

Wow the Cincy under almost made it...but no. Cordero serves one up to Kouzmanoff so it's now 6-4. KC/BAL might hit..but sadly I was already on the over as a spot play before I saw the umps. Oh well...

Went 1-1 last night. Was on the KC/BAL over before umps came out but had to put the system bet in...so ended up being a loss still but I guess at least the system worked out.

Chasing 3.016 units tonight with Jeff Nelson. Under 9.5 or under 9 depending on where you look. Might just roll with 9 at some serious plus $. Very worried about Huff...so if it's really a loss, it'd be better to lose less...better than what you get for the 9 push.

Under 9 @ +124