Underdog System ( using ideas of Plus Money System ) + Totals system

Well i've been thinking about the Plus Money System for a while now and I like some principles but not all of them. That's why I've written some rules for myself and will give it a go in here!

As money managment system I will not use a doubling up method. I don't like betting 30% on dogs per night. I will use the labouchere method. I know 400.000 $ in one year MLB is a very very huge income but who is so crazy to bet a D bet for 6% of his bankroll ( after he already lost % ) on a team like Baltimore @ the Red Sox ?

I like the idea of making a dog out of a fav using the Run Line. And there is some value in home and away dogs but we have to pick our moments.

I will also use a totals system I'm liking so far and also using labouchere! So hope it will work out for us!

I will only make 1 thread as all plays will be in here.

STARTING BANKROLL: 5.000$

1st System: UNDERDOG SYSTEM

I will use 2 Labouchere models to test what's most profitable and with how many risk. So Model 1 is a "to win" model and model 2 is a "to risk" model

LA Angels -1,5 ( +131 )
Saunders + Wolf must start
Labby Line 1: To win 50$ ( Risk 38.16$ )
Labby Line 2: Risk 50$ to win 65.5$

Labby model 1:
25 - 25 - 25 - 25
25 - 25 - 25 - 25
25 - 25 - 25 - 25

Labby model 2:
25 - 25 - 25 - 25
25 - 25 - 25 - 25
25 - 25 - 25 - 25

2nd System: TOTALS SYSTEM

I will use 2 Labouchere models to test what's most profitable and with how many risk. So Model 1 is a "to win" model and model 2 is a "to risk" model

Milwaukee @LA Angels OVER 10 ( -119 )
Saunders + Wolf must start
Labby Line 1: To win 50$ ( Risk 59.50$ )
Labby Line 2: Risk 50$ to win 42.02$

Baltimore @ San Francisco UNDER 7.5 ( -106 ) Tillman + Sanchez must start
Labby Line 1: To win 50$ ( Risk 53$ )
Labby Line 2: Risk 50$ to win 47.17 $

Toronto @ San Diego UNDER 6.5 (+101)
Marcum + Garland must start
Labby Line 1: To win 50$ ( Risk 49.50$ )
Labby Line 2: Risk 50$ to win 50.50$

Labby model 1:
25 - 25 - 25 - 25
25 - 25 - 25 - 25
25 - 25 - 25 - 25

Labby model 2:
25 - 25 - 25 - 25
25 - 25 - 25 - 25
25 - 25 - 25 - 25

Well I don't have it completely sorted it out yet.

BUT here is what I don't like from the Plus Money system:

- The money managment: 1,5 - 3 - 4,5 - 6% at risk
- Betting on teams like Baltimore on the road vs teams like Boston or Tampa Bay,...
- Strictly holding on to an odds range like +135 to +195 or -105 to -140
- Betting on teams but with a lot of game in between isn't the way to go so I would stick to 1 or maybe 2 series. Ex A game is the 2nd game of a series and b game 3th game of a series, C game 2nd game of next series

What I do like about Plus Money System:

- making dogs of favs tnx to the Run Line
- betting on dogs as well as home as away.

Improvements:

- Laboucher money managment
- looking at last 3 or 5 games to see who's hot and can be played as -1,5 Run Line fav and who is playable as home or away dog.
- Maybe looking at starters ERA + WHIP for the comming series

I've just looked at the numbers here on covers.com at the Trend section.

ATS home fav = sth like 42%
ATS Away fav = sth like 40%

So we just can't take every Fav on the run line blindly!

So here are the numbers for this season:

Home Favs on the Run Line: 260 - 361 = 41,8%
Away Favs on the Run Line: 127 - 199 = 38,9 %

These numbers can be a bit different as I use Accuscore.com for the lines.but it won't be a lot different.

Next aspect:

Betting on the away fav run line if:
Away Favs of >-200 ; -150 : 25 - 33 = 43,1%
Away favs of -150 ; -130 : 31 - 46 = 40,2 %
Away favs of -130 ; -105 : 59 - 94 = 38,5 %

Betting on the home fav run line if:
Home Favs of -250 ; -190: 42 - 52 = 44,6%
Home Favs of -190 ; -150: 84 - 95 = 46,9%
Home Favs of -150 ; -105: 135 - 209 = 39,2%

We will now take a look at all the played series so far:

First the normal underdogs. So the Money Line underdogs:

Away dogs netween +300 and +200: 6 - 6 (50%)
Away dogs between +250 and +200: 14 - 30 (31,8%)
Away dogs between +200 and +150: 66 - 108 (37,9%)
Away dogs between +150 and +100: 157 - 235 (40%) 

Home dogs between +100 and +150: 118 - 123 (48,9%)
Home dogs between +150 and +200: 14 - 21 ( 40%)
Home dogs between +200 and + 300: 1 - 2 (50%)

So for now the best thing you can do is betting the home favs between -150 and -250 on the run line and betting the home underdogs between +100 and +150

Combined record: 244 - 270

BUT favs of -150 and bigger aren't dogs on the run line in most cases...