After the day i had today i had to join a betting forum for some discussion.Wether it be nba, nfl or ncaafb or basketball i tend to lose more often than not, and i know alot of other people do on here. I want to make a thread to get everyones insight, winners and losers. Heres a list of reasons i think could be holding me back and maybe you aswell?
1) Overthink too much on the spread, think too much of what vegas wants to win and wether its a trap or not.
2) Teasers, if you could successfully win on teasers we would all be millionaires, theres something about teasers that makes us lose, isit in our head or are they just not beatable.
3) We as gamblers tend to not listen, we are so ignorant even though we are the biggest bunch of losers (which most will admit we are, theoritically not overall in life lol) yet we think we know everything.
4) We bet way too many games, from now on im only betting 1 game per nfl sunday or ncaafb saturday because im not in it for the rush im in this game to make money, if your a recreational bettor fairplay to you.
5) There is definitely a correlation between day games and sunday night games i.e. when dogs bark during the day, the public bet will win on snf and mnf and vice versa.
Lets discuss this please guys, we need to beat the house, im on a mission to find the root of our problem as a gambler.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
After the day i had today i had to join a betting forum for some discussion.Wether it be nba, nfl or ncaafb or basketball i tend to lose more often than not, and i know alot of other people do on here. I want to make a thread to get everyones insight, winners and losers. Heres a list of reasons i think could be holding me back and maybe you aswell?
1) Overthink too much on the spread, think too much of what vegas wants to win and wether its a trap or not.
2) Teasers, if you could successfully win on teasers we would all be millionaires, theres something about teasers that makes us lose, isit in our head or are they just not beatable.
3) We as gamblers tend to not listen, we are so ignorant even though we are the biggest bunch of losers (which most will admit we are, theoritically not overall in life lol) yet we think we know everything.
4) We bet way too many games, from now on im only betting 1 game per nfl sunday or ncaafb saturday because im not in it for the rush im in this game to make money, if your a recreational bettor fairplay to you.
5) There is definitely a correlation between day games and sunday night games i.e. when dogs bark during the day, the public bet will win on snf and mnf and vice versa.
Lets discuss this please guys, we need to beat the house, im on a mission to find the root of our problem as a gambler.
1.Alot of games are decided by the spread which has nothing to do with a team winning or losing therefore alot can be attributed to luck.
2.You have heard it a million times but money management is the key.You might be losing money but I am sure your win/loss percentage is not bad.
3.Its ok to overthink a line its there to get equal action on both sides and there are reasons a line is posted where it is.
4.I dont bet teasers I used too was not successful at it did better with straight up games.I personally think they are called teasers for a reason
5.If you are a gambler who thinks you know everything thats a problem there are reasons to make a case for either side in a game.
6.Patience is key you can bet a couple of games but to bet alot of games is a big mistake .I have stopped doing this and it has helped me.For example after a bad 1pm in the NFL I know guys that will bet all 4 4pm games recipe for disaster-You can easily go 1-3 on games you forced and dig yourself into a deeper hole.
7.Statement number 5 of yours is absolutely false each game is its own entity has nothing to do with games played earlier in the day.
Good Luck
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Just some quick comments.
1.Alot of games are decided by the spread which has nothing to do with a team winning or losing therefore alot can be attributed to luck.
2.You have heard it a million times but money management is the key.You might be losing money but I am sure your win/loss percentage is not bad.
3.Its ok to overthink a line its there to get equal action on both sides and there are reasons a line is posted where it is.
4.I dont bet teasers I used too was not successful at it did better with straight up games.I personally think they are called teasers for a reason
5.If you are a gambler who thinks you know everything thats a problem there are reasons to make a case for either side in a game.
6.Patience is key you can bet a couple of games but to bet alot of games is a big mistake .I have stopped doing this and it has helped me.For example after a bad 1pm in the NFL I know guys that will bet all 4 4pm games recipe for disaster-You can easily go 1-3 on games you forced and dig yourself into a deeper hole.
7.Statement number 5 of yours is absolutely false each game is its own entity has nothing to do with games played earlier in the day.
The biggest problem i have is betting just to have action, im done a small fraction. But i could be up quite a bit if i would just stick to my card and never chase and never bet since im doing well that day. Another problem i always have is i will literally go 5-1 in a day and then up my wager for the last game of the day to lose and go 5-2 for the day and break even.....I NEED TO STICK TO MY CARD AND MONEY MANAGEMENT......................but im a degenerate and love the action so be it..........
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The biggest problem i have is betting just to have action, im done a small fraction. But i could be up quite a bit if i would just stick to my card and never chase and never bet since im doing well that day. Another problem i always have is i will literally go 5-1 in a day and then up my wager for the last game of the day to lose and go 5-2 for the day and break even.....I NEED TO STICK TO MY CARD AND MONEY MANAGEMENT......................but im a degenerate and love the action so be it..........
The biggest problem i have is betting just to have action, im done a small fraction. But i could be up quite a bit if i would just stick to my card and never chase and never bet since im doing well that day. Another problem i always have is i will literally go 5-1 in a day and then up my wager for the last game of the day to lose and go 5-2 for the day and break even.....I NEED TO STICK TO MY CARD AND MONEY MANAGEMENT......................but im a degenerate and love the action so be it..........
Good points guys
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Quote Originally Posted by 64PERCENT:
The biggest problem i have is betting just to have action, im done a small fraction. But i could be up quite a bit if i would just stick to my card and never chase and never bet since im doing well that day. Another problem i always have is i will literally go 5-1 in a day and then up my wager for the last game of the day to lose and go 5-2 for the day and break even.....I NEED TO STICK TO MY CARD AND MONEY MANAGEMENT......................but im a degenerate and love the action so be it..........
i think money management is my main problem....keep digging deeper holes, but then again im new to this stuff. i keep chasing and chasing, overthinking is not good. we keep wanting to beat the book but the book i just letting us beat ourselves first by overthinking.
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i think money management is my main problem....keep digging deeper holes, but then again im new to this stuff. i keep chasing and chasing, overthinking is not good. we keep wanting to beat the book but the book i just letting us beat ourselves first by overthinking.
1. Absolutely I've posted in several threads about my disdain for letting trap talk and public $ % play too big of part in some people's picks. I've won a lot of games that others lay off or play the other side cause its a so called "Trap" Seems to me most of the time they are missing the best picks.
2. I've hit teasers at a 70% clip for 3 seasons, so its not the teaser bet that is losing for you its the picks. There are some very bad teaser decisions that could be made each week, but also very sharp moves that will hit at a higher % than singles but cost a little more juice of course
3. Its good to approach this with a humble attitude and realize any team can win on any day and even your best bet could lose at any moment, take in all the info you can and bet not on what you think will happen but what has the best % chance to happen.
4. your right betting too many games can have an adverse effect sometimes, but not if you like every play just as much. you don't have to limit yourself to a predetermined number of bets, but rather make sure your playing it because its good a real good edge in your opinion, basically make sure your not forcing plays, if you have a little voice telling you that as you go to place more, then listen.
5. This is completely wrong already you contridicted what you pointed out with number 1 in a sense, throw this out and cap this game as you normally would for the most part.
Hope this helps, I've been succesful at this for year's but have seen many people make a lot of crucial mistakes that ends up in them losing year after year. I've been able to help a few friends who when they got started made some mistakes and have vastly improved over time to be much better football cappers. Lastly, realizing and examing what might be holding you back is really good, after each loss question why you made the move and what you might have missed. So now that you are thinking all this make sure to start applying it with discipline. Good luck man !!
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In response to the original poster:
1. Absolutely I've posted in several threads about my disdain for letting trap talk and public $ % play too big of part in some people's picks. I've won a lot of games that others lay off or play the other side cause its a so called "Trap" Seems to me most of the time they are missing the best picks.
2. I've hit teasers at a 70% clip for 3 seasons, so its not the teaser bet that is losing for you its the picks. There are some very bad teaser decisions that could be made each week, but also very sharp moves that will hit at a higher % than singles but cost a little more juice of course
3. Its good to approach this with a humble attitude and realize any team can win on any day and even your best bet could lose at any moment, take in all the info you can and bet not on what you think will happen but what has the best % chance to happen.
4. your right betting too many games can have an adverse effect sometimes, but not if you like every play just as much. you don't have to limit yourself to a predetermined number of bets, but rather make sure your playing it because its good a real good edge in your opinion, basically make sure your not forcing plays, if you have a little voice telling you that as you go to place more, then listen.
5. This is completely wrong already you contridicted what you pointed out with number 1 in a sense, throw this out and cap this game as you normally would for the most part.
Hope this helps, I've been succesful at this for year's but have seen many people make a lot of crucial mistakes that ends up in them losing year after year. I've been able to help a few friends who when they got started made some mistakes and have vastly improved over time to be much better football cappers. Lastly, realizing and examing what might be holding you back is really good, after each loss question why you made the move and what you might have missed. So now that you are thinking all this make sure to start applying it with discipline. Good luck man !!
1. Absolutely I've posted in several threads about my disdain for letting trap talk and public $ % play too big of part in some people's picks. I've won a lot of games that others lay off or play the other side cause its a so called "Trap" Seems to me most of the time they are missing the best picks.
2. I've hit teasers at a 70% clip for 3 seasons, so its not the teaser bet that is losing for you its the picks. There are some very bad teaser decisions that could be made each week, but also very sharp moves that will hit at a higher % than singles but cost a little more juice of course
3. Its good to approach this with a humble attitude and realize any team can win on any day and even your best bet could lose at any moment, take in all the info you can and bet not on what you think will happen but what has the best % chance to happen.
4. your right betting too many games can have an adverse effect sometimes, but not if you like every play just as much. you don't have to limit yourself to a predetermined number of bets, but rather make sure your playing it because its good a real good edge in your opinion, basically make sure your not forcing plays, if you have a little voice telling you that as you go to place more, then listen.
5. This is completely wrong already you contridicted what you pointed out with number 1 in a sense, throw this out and cap this game as you normally would for the most part.
Hope this helps, I've been succesful at this for year's but have seen many people make a lot of crucial mistakes that ends up in them losing year after year. I've been able to help a few friends who when they got started made some mistakes and have vastly improved over time to be much better football cappers. Lastly, realizing and examing what might be holding you back is really good, after each loss question why you made the move and what you might have missed. So now that you are thinking all this make sure to start applying it with discipline. Good luck man !!
Thanks bro, that was nice to read. I like the Cowboys on thanksgiving -14, the raiders will be travelling on a short week, high off a emotional win against the bengals, opposite to the cowboys who will be disgusted at only scoring 1 td on sunday. I respect what the raiders did yesterday but playing at home and playing on the road on a short week in a hostile environment is a different task...your thoughts
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Quote Originally Posted by pickinvet:
In response to the original poster:
1. Absolutely I've posted in several threads about my disdain for letting trap talk and public $ % play too big of part in some people's picks. I've won a lot of games that others lay off or play the other side cause its a so called "Trap" Seems to me most of the time they are missing the best picks.
2. I've hit teasers at a 70% clip for 3 seasons, so its not the teaser bet that is losing for you its the picks. There are some very bad teaser decisions that could be made each week, but also very sharp moves that will hit at a higher % than singles but cost a little more juice of course
3. Its good to approach this with a humble attitude and realize any team can win on any day and even your best bet could lose at any moment, take in all the info you can and bet not on what you think will happen but what has the best % chance to happen.
4. your right betting too many games can have an adverse effect sometimes, but not if you like every play just as much. you don't have to limit yourself to a predetermined number of bets, but rather make sure your playing it because its good a real good edge in your opinion, basically make sure your not forcing plays, if you have a little voice telling you that as you go to place more, then listen.
5. This is completely wrong already you contridicted what you pointed out with number 1 in a sense, throw this out and cap this game as you normally would for the most part.
Hope this helps, I've been succesful at this for year's but have seen many people make a lot of crucial mistakes that ends up in them losing year after year. I've been able to help a few friends who when they got started made some mistakes and have vastly improved over time to be much better football cappers. Lastly, realizing and examing what might be holding you back is really good, after each loss question why you made the move and what you might have missed. So now that you are thinking all this make sure to start applying it with discipline. Good luck man !!
Thanks bro, that was nice to read. I like the Cowboys on thanksgiving -14, the raiders will be travelling on a short week, high off a emotional win against the bengals, opposite to the cowboys who will be disgusted at only scoring 1 td on sunday. I respect what the raiders did yesterday but playing at home and playing on the road on a short week in a hostile environment is a different task...your thoughts
I have to disagree with your teaser comment - there is some basic strategy with teasers that can be utilized and a profit can be had. I had Pittsburgh in some teasers today and took it on the chin but if you look at my overall teaser record I'm sitting at 18-10 in the NFL and 23-11 in NCAA far better than my side and total plays.
The number of games to play is often debated and I would have to say you should bet the nimber of games you feel good about - if that's one game bet one game if it's 10 bet 10. The problem some have is we chase losses and add games to our card that we would not have originally bet.
Good luck to all.
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I have to disagree with your teaser comment - there is some basic strategy with teasers that can be utilized and a profit can be had. I had Pittsburgh in some teasers today and took it on the chin but if you look at my overall teaser record I'm sitting at 18-10 in the NFL and 23-11 in NCAA far better than my side and total plays.
The number of games to play is often debated and I would have to say you should bet the nimber of games you feel good about - if that's one game bet one game if it's 10 bet 10. The problem some have is we chase losses and add games to our card that we would not have originally bet.
When in Hole take your lumps bow out gracefully. Don't chase to get out of hole. Every once in a while When up big bet heavy wit house money, like betting $200 at blackjack table when you have been playing quarters all night. Use that gut felling as to when to go heavy.. Teasers/parlays are house favorite. Don't get hooked on them.
Gamble with you hea Not Over your head
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When in Hole take your lumps bow out gracefully. Don't chase to get out of hole. Every once in a while When up big bet heavy wit house money, like betting $200 at blackjack table when you have been playing quarters all night. Use that gut felling as to when to go heavy.. Teasers/parlays are house favorite. Don't get hooked on them.
The biggest problem i have is betting just to have action, im done a small fraction. But i could be up quite a bit if i would just stick to my card and never chase and never bet since im doing well that day. Another problem i always have is i will literally go 5-1 in a day and then up my wager for the last game of the day to lose and go 5-2 for the day and break even.....I NEED TO STICK TO MY CARD AND MONEY MANAGEMENT......................but im a degenerate and love the action so be it..........
Amen. I have a hard time too just picking a few games to play, and just playing those.
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Quote Originally Posted by 64PERCENT:
The biggest problem i have is betting just to have action, im done a small fraction. But i could be up quite a bit if i would just stick to my card and never chase and never bet since im doing well that day. Another problem i always have is i will literally go 5-1 in a day and then up my wager for the last game of the day to lose and go 5-2 for the day and break even.....I NEED TO STICK TO MY CARD AND MONEY MANAGEMENT......................but im a degenerate and love the action so be it..........
Amen. I have a hard time too just picking a few games to play, and just playing those.
1. Absolutely I've posted in several threads about my disdain for letting trap talk and public $ % play too big of part in some people's picks. I've won a lot of games that others lay off or play the other side cause its a so called "Trap" Seems to me most of the time they are missing the best picks.
2. I've hit teasers at a 70% clip for 3 seasons, so its not the teaser bet that is losing for you its the picks. There are some very bad teaser decisions that could be made each week, but also very sharp moves that will hit at a higher % than singles but cost a little more juice of course
3. Its good to approach this with a humble attitude and realize any team can win on any day and even your best bet could lose at any moment, take in all the info you can and bet not on what you think will happen but what has the best % chance to happen.
4. your right betting too many games can have an adverse effect sometimes, but not if you like every play just as much. you don't have to limit yourself to a predetermined number of bets, but rather make sure your playing it because its good a real good edge in your opinion, basically make sure your not forcing plays, if you have a little voice telling you that as you go to place more, then listen.
5. This is completely wrong already you contridicted what you pointed out with number 1 in a sense, throw this out and cap this game as you normally would for the most part.
Hope this helps, I've been succesful at this for year's but have seen many people make a lot of crucial mistakes that ends up in them losing year after year. I've been able to help a few friends who when they got started made some mistakes and have vastly improved over time to be much better football cappers. Lastly, realizing and examing what might be holding you back is really good, after each loss question why you made the move and what you might have missed. So now that you are thinking all this make sure to start applying it with discipline. Good luck man !!
damn 70 percent on teasers are you doing two game or three game teasers?
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Quote Originally Posted by pickinvet:
In response to the original poster:
1. Absolutely I've posted in several threads about my disdain for letting trap talk and public $ % play too big of part in some people's picks. I've won a lot of games that others lay off or play the other side cause its a so called "Trap" Seems to me most of the time they are missing the best picks.
2. I've hit teasers at a 70% clip for 3 seasons, so its not the teaser bet that is losing for you its the picks. There are some very bad teaser decisions that could be made each week, but also very sharp moves that will hit at a higher % than singles but cost a little more juice of course
3. Its good to approach this with a humble attitude and realize any team can win on any day and even your best bet could lose at any moment, take in all the info you can and bet not on what you think will happen but what has the best % chance to happen.
4. your right betting too many games can have an adverse effect sometimes, but not if you like every play just as much. you don't have to limit yourself to a predetermined number of bets, but rather make sure your playing it because its good a real good edge in your opinion, basically make sure your not forcing plays, if you have a little voice telling you that as you go to place more, then listen.
5. This is completely wrong already you contridicted what you pointed out with number 1 in a sense, throw this out and cap this game as you normally would for the most part.
Hope this helps, I've been succesful at this for year's but have seen many people make a lot of crucial mistakes that ends up in them losing year after year. I've been able to help a few friends who when they got started made some mistakes and have vastly improved over time to be much better football cappers. Lastly, realizing and examing what might be holding you back is really good, after each loss question why you made the move and what you might have missed. So now that you are thinking all this make sure to start applying it with discipline. Good luck man !!
damn 70 percent on teasers are you doing two game or three game teasers?
1. Bettors tend to fall victim to "paralysis by over anlaysis". What I mean by this, is what you said earlier, that they think so many different things about what "Vegas is trying to get them to think" that every different angle that they could imagine becomes on jumbled mess in the mind and just kills the gambler. Actual real anaylsis done on the games won't kill the bettor, but analyzing what "Vegas is getting us to think with a certain line" is going to ruin every one of you. Guys, unless you have worked with a book, there is absolutely no point in trying to analyze the potential pyschological theory. You all can believe in these things or what not, but I tend to believe that the real case behind everything is that Vegas intially posts a line with a 50/50 money amount split in mind to take there profit from the vig, adjusts the line accordingly up till game time, and let's all the gamblers kill their mind overthinking the line.
And teasers, while they are what the name suggests. Haha it couldn't be any more obvious that looking at the name. They are meant to tease. They look so appealing getting points, as it seems so easy to win. Yes they can be profitable in the short run, another reason they are appealing, but in the long run they won't be. The reason why people lose on teasers is that they are overpriced in terms of the points you are getting. (Now crossing over key numbers in football is another discussion with teasers but for the most part). This isn't obvious the average bettor, but the vig is to high for the points you recieve in return on the teasers, and is why you lose in the long run.
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My two cents:
1. Bettors tend to fall victim to "paralysis by over anlaysis". What I mean by this, is what you said earlier, that they think so many different things about what "Vegas is trying to get them to think" that every different angle that they could imagine becomes on jumbled mess in the mind and just kills the gambler. Actual real anaylsis done on the games won't kill the bettor, but analyzing what "Vegas is getting us to think with a certain line" is going to ruin every one of you. Guys, unless you have worked with a book, there is absolutely no point in trying to analyze the potential pyschological theory. You all can believe in these things or what not, but I tend to believe that the real case behind everything is that Vegas intially posts a line with a 50/50 money amount split in mind to take there profit from the vig, adjusts the line accordingly up till game time, and let's all the gamblers kill their mind overthinking the line.
And teasers, while they are what the name suggests. Haha it couldn't be any more obvious that looking at the name. They are meant to tease. They look so appealing getting points, as it seems so easy to win. Yes they can be profitable in the short run, another reason they are appealing, but in the long run they won't be. The reason why people lose on teasers is that they are overpriced in terms of the points you are getting. (Now crossing over key numbers in football is another discussion with teasers but for the most part). This isn't obvious the average bettor, but the vig is to high for the points you recieve in return on the teasers, and is why you lose in the long run.
I agree with the poster above, I have indeed hit teasers at 70% over the long run, but like he says a lot of it has to do with crossing key numbers in football. I also only do this with picks that I believe will cover the regular number. My book offers 7pters and give you the push unlike a lot of books that a push is a loss. So the way I hit 70% is by taking picks I like against the reg number (which I hit 60% consistently) and teasing them across key numbers. And of course I play straight sides on my favorites, but what this does is give me a little insurance on the picks I think will cover.
People will tell you that teaser points don't make a difference and while that might be true for a lot of people, I've covered numerous times where the teaser points are needed. I've found that it takes a lot of the stress out of it, because on those plays where its gonna be the difference on the spread, a lot of the times I know I'm gonna cover either way (key numbers)
The best example was when Minn was playing Pitt, I liked Minn +4-+6 quite a bit but really loved teasing them to over the key number of +10. Before Pitt scored a defensive TD to go up by 10 and kill Minn reg. spread bets, I knew that I could allow a TD and cover and didn't stress like most Minny backers, basically I knew it was a win before all the drama unfolded
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I agree with the poster above, I have indeed hit teasers at 70% over the long run, but like he says a lot of it has to do with crossing key numbers in football. I also only do this with picks that I believe will cover the regular number. My book offers 7pters and give you the push unlike a lot of books that a push is a loss. So the way I hit 70% is by taking picks I like against the reg number (which I hit 60% consistently) and teasing them across key numbers. And of course I play straight sides on my favorites, but what this does is give me a little insurance on the picks I think will cover.
People will tell you that teaser points don't make a difference and while that might be true for a lot of people, I've covered numerous times where the teaser points are needed. I've found that it takes a lot of the stress out of it, because on those plays where its gonna be the difference on the spread, a lot of the times I know I'm gonna cover either way (key numbers)
The best example was when Minn was playing Pitt, I liked Minn +4-+6 quite a bit but really loved teasing them to over the key number of +10. Before Pitt scored a defensive TD to go up by 10 and kill Minn reg. spread bets, I knew that I could allow a TD and cover and didn't stress like most Minny backers, basically I knew it was a win before all the drama unfolded
But like I said there are bad moves that can be made, for instance teasing down Pitt and/or Cincy this past week was a terrible move, mostly because they were on the road and played a physical emotional game the week prior and were playing on the road against hungry teams with nothing to lose. I stayed away from these games from the get go for these reasons, and also was hesitant to back the home dogs here because Pitt and Cincy definetly have the ability to cover a huge number on the flipside.
Here was my biggest teaser last week:
Minn -0.5 NE -0.5 Ind +10
I loved this because I liked Indy reg spread (bet and covered it) but really felt good that if Balt did win it would be highly unlikely that it would be by more than a TD. On Minn an NE... Out of all the big spreads these were the safest because you have two good teams, with Great leader QB's and good D, but what really put these over the top was they were home games for these teams.
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But like I said there are bad moves that can be made, for instance teasing down Pitt and/or Cincy this past week was a terrible move, mostly because they were on the road and played a physical emotional game the week prior and were playing on the road against hungry teams with nothing to lose. I stayed away from these games from the get go for these reasons, and also was hesitant to back the home dogs here because Pitt and Cincy definetly have the ability to cover a huge number on the flipside.
Here was my biggest teaser last week:
Minn -0.5 NE -0.5 Ind +10
I loved this because I liked Indy reg spread (bet and covered it) but really felt good that if Balt did win it would be highly unlikely that it would be by more than a TD. On Minn an NE... Out of all the big spreads these were the safest because you have two good teams, with Great leader QB's and good D, but what really put these over the top was they were home games for these teams.
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