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Win rate vs. Units won

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
In football, the breakeven % is between 53-54%. Betting at -110 odds at that % will give you 0 units won. If the winning rate goes higher to 60% (betting still at -110), we would see greater units won.

Question: At what point, if we were to graph on an X-Y scale, units won and win rate, will we get an optimal win rate and units won rate?
 
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Posted: #2

Quote Originally Posted by seer8:

In football, the breakeven % is between 53-54%. Betting at -110 odds at that % will give you 0 units won. If the winning rate goes higher to 60% (betting still at -110), we would see greater units won.

Question: At what point, if we were to graph on an X-Y scale, units won and win rate, will we get an optimal win rate and units won rate?

Seer, the breakeven point is 52.381% (11/21). And the graph you are suggesting is a tad more complicated than you make it out to be. There is another variable to consider, total games bet, and also another thing to consider, the money management system to your betting.

 
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Posted: #3
This is why I mostly only play chase systems now.

Lets say you play 300 games, to win $100 on all of them, at -110 odds.  Winning 50% of the time will lead to a -$3000 hole.  Play them as a 4 game chase and winning 50% of the time suddenly is a $2300 profit.  It is when you find trends that hit 55%+ of the time where I can feel comfortable applying a labouchere money managment to maximize the profit through the chase series even further.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by KissAPistol:

This is why I mostly only play chase systems now.

Lets say you play 300 games, to win $100 on all of them, at -110 odds.  Winning 50% of the time will lead to a -$3000 hole.  Play them as a 4 game chase and winning 50% of the time suddenly is a $2300 profit.  It is when you find trends that hit 55%+ of the time where I can feel comfortable applying a labouchere money managment to maximize the profit through the chase series even further.


There is absolutely no difference mathematically whether you chase or flat bet in this situation. I have no idea how you are coming up with a +$2,300 profit. You must hit above the regular vig breakeven rate (52.381%) to still make a profit when chasing.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #5
Here is the math to show that your wrong Pistol.

You claim that picking 50% winners will make you a profit in a 4 game chase. So anyone you can flip a coin should make a profit if using this system.

 100.00%
50.00% 1.1 1 0.5
25.00% 2.31 1 0.25
12.50% 4.851 1 0.125
6.25% 10.1871 1 0.0625
6.25%   -18.4481 -1.15300625


-0.21550625

The bolded -.2155 is the average return per 1 unit bet in a 4 game chase with a win percentage of 50%.







 
Prospect
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Posted: #6
The columns in the table are:

Chance of Occurance
Bet
To Win (Net)
Net Return Per Bet * Chance of Occurance

The rows are:
1st - Winning 1st Bet
2nd - Winning 2nd Chase
3rd - Winning 3rd Chase
4th - Winning 4th Chase
5th - Losing 4th Chase
6th - Totals /Averages

 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by FreakyFresh:



There is absolutely no difference mathematically whether you chase or flat bet in this situation. I have no idea how you are coming up with a +$2,300 profit. You must hit above the regular vig breakeven rate (52.381%) to still make a profit when chasing.


Isn't the chance of flipping a coin 4 times and getting the same result 1/16 or a 6.25% win rate.  So the chance of winning one of four games at a 50% winning percentage for each individual game is 93.75%.  If you apply that winning percentage to 300 series chases, you are 281-19.  Each loss would be -12 units, equaling +53 units overall.  Minus 30 units for the juice and you have +23 units.  Am I doing something wrong here?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #8
Yeah, if you were to add the juice into each previous loss for your next bet, each loss at the end of 4 bets would equal -18.4481 units.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #9
Not sure how you got -12 exactly, but a big mistake usually is that people say they are -15. (-1 on first loss, -2 on second, -4 on third, -8, on fourth for a total of -15).

But if you add in the vig/juice each time, to actually win "1" net unit. The bet sizes would be

1st Bet - 1.1
2nd Bet - 2.31
3rd Bet - 4.851
4th Bet - 10.1871
For a total of 18.4481
 
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Posted: #10
Gotcha.  Figured I had to be forgetting something.  Math is obviously not my forte.
 
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Posted: #11
Yeah, I realize what I was doing now, I was only subtracting the juice for the A games.
 
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Posted: #12
on the losses I mean.
 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #13
I gotcha, I didn't mean to come off concieted or trying to put you down or anything, I just wanted to help you really.
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