2019 Tennis Season - Picks and Analysis

ATP Brisbane International 250, Mens Singles, R2
Miomir Kecmanovic vs Milos Raonic
Total Score: Over 22.5 Games @ 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Miomir Kecmanovic came off some really solid results in Challenger events in 2018, and in 2019 he will look to break into the top 100 for the first time with potentially an entry into the main draw of the Australian Open whether it be through Qualifying or a direct entry. A win here will help immensely and I think he has the tools to make this a competitive match.
He came through in qualifying beating Taro Daniel as well as a seasoned veteran in Leonardo Mayer in his first match which I think is a good prep for him coming into this match.
Hard to tell what to expect of Milos Raonic. He beat Aljaz Bedene who is not a known hard court player and who only won one match in 2018 on hards on the main tour. He can also be pretty inconsistent despite having a playing history here and winning the title a few years back beating Federer.
He also had a pretty disappointing finish to the end of last season on the hard courts losing 4 out of his last 5 matches with a walkover against Federer.
Looking at the numbers it's clear Bedene didn't offer up much of a challenge and I think Kecmanovic will provide more of a challenge in this matchup. My numbers have this closer to 24-25 and I think there is reasonable value taking the over in this match up.

YTD: 0 - 1, (-1.00u)

ATP Brisbane International 250, Mens Singles, R2
Jordan Thompson vs Alex De Minaur
Set Handicap: Alex De Minaur 1.5 Sets @ 2.17 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

I really like everything I've seen from Alex De Minaur. He was relentless in beating Popyrin who did show some life in the backend of the second set but really he was outclassed by De Minaur. He's looked as determined as I've seen, chasing everything, hitting everything back twice as hard and even when he got broken in that second set he broke back immediately.
Jordan Thompson has had some good results in Australia including winning a few Challenger Events himself but the quality of those opponents was not in De Minaur's class IMO. 
Aussies and notably playing here in Australia fight hard and don't give up but I don't think that will be enough to give De Minaur enough of a challenge as I'll take the better odds with a straight sets win

^Sorry that was meant to be -1.5 Set Handicap

ATP Brisbane International 250, Mens Singles, R2
Andy Murray vs Daniil Medvedev
Moneyline: Andy Murray @ 1.99 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Andy Murray was far from playing great in his match against Duckworth and at times throughout that match, to me he looked a little flat and tired. But I think that performance will make him better for this matchup. Whilst the odds reflect what's happened in 2018 such as Murray's lack of match practice having only really played after Wimbledon and Medvedev having made a surge up the rankings after his good start by winning the Sydney International I like the odds here for Murray to continue his unbeaten run here in Brisbane (11-0).
I don't know if Medvedev can match Murray's practicalities being a lean young player, but if he is to make a dent in this match he will likely have to attack Murray's second serve, which is god awful for a player of his calibre (former world no 1, 3x Slam Champ, 2x Gold Medalist) but Murray is better and stronger off both wingspans including the backhand and forehand. 
I'm also hoping the rustiness he showed at times against Duckworth with a few silly errors is cleaned up a bit in this match.

1-2, -0.83u

ATP Sydney International 250, Mens Singles, R2
Taro Daniel vs Jordan Thompson
Handicap: Taro Daniel +3 @ 2.02 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

I dont feel like there is a big difference as the odds indicate and I think Taro Daniel is a potential winner for this matchup. Whilst he hasn't been as successful on the ITF/Challenger Tour I think he's handled the transition to the ATP Tour better, as with Jordan Thompson I feel like we hear about him more in January when it is the Australian Summer. 
He was pretty good as a Lucky Loser in Brisbane matching Tsonga stroke for stroke and I think he will want to make the most of his matchup in Sydney here against a more inferior opponent.
A line of 3 at that price is a line I am happy to take. 

ATP Sydney International 250, Men's Singles, R1
Alex De Minaur vs Riley Opeika
Set Handicap: Alex De Minaur -1.5 Sets @ 2.10 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Alex De Minaur had a pretty great Brisbane campaign only to be stopped by Jo Wilfried Tsonga who has also done a pretty good job to come back from injury being able to physically outmuscle him and break him on the run. I think he will be better for it in the long run as he gets older and physically better. 
Against Opeika here he plays a guy who is good on serve and not much else. So long as he controls things on the return of serve, attack the second serve I think he can outrally him.
Opeika did a nice job making it to the main draw here in Sydney but really his best results were in the US and I don't expect that to be any different today.

ATP Sydney International 250, Men's Singles, R2
Sam Querrey vs Gilles Simon
Handicap: Gilles Simon -1 @ 2.06 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Gilles Simon had a good run in Pune where he fell short to Anderson but had been playing well. In comparison to the guy Querrey played, his opponents have been superior and he in my opinion is better on the return of serve. I don't know what to expect of Querrey going forward but at least with Simon I know what I am going to expect based of what I've seen from him in 2019 so far. 
Look for a former winner here in Sydney to look to have another good week before the Australian Open, collecting valuable points on the way.

Absolutely pathetic from Taro Daniel unfortunately

1-3, -1.83u

ATP Sydney International 250, Men's Singles, R2
Andrey Rublev vs Yoshihito Nishioka
Handicap: Andrey Rublev -2 @ 1.97 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Not much to say on this one, I think Rublev is far more talented and I expect him to get the job done. Nishioka had a nice win over Harrison, but really Harrison didn't offer much on the return game (2 points or something like that won in the first set lol), couldnt consistently serve, couldn't consistently win points off his second serve and phoned it in uncharacteristically when he got broken in the second set. 

ATP Sydney International 250, Men's Singles, R2
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman vs Guillermo Garcia Lopez
Handicap: Guillermo Garcia Lopez +2.5 @ 1.97 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Schwartzman plays his first match of the year and his HC record is really average for a top 20 player. Garcia Lopez had never been a great HC player and whilst in decline he has a match under his belt here with confidence. I think Schwartzman will struggle in his first match in Sydney and his track record is pretty poor here in Australia too aside from a fourth round run last year.