Posted:
#1
Getting this in now so I can focus on MLB and NBA for the rest of the day...
Ostapenko-Halep over 21 games 1.5u
Ostapenko +1.5 sets 1u
Ostapenko +4.5 games 1u
Ostapenko ML +250 0.5u
Let me just say that Simona Halep is probably going to win this final. This has always been her tournament to lose and her career has really been leading to this point.
But that said, lots of value on Ostapenko, who is a hard-hitting bulldog of a player who is capable of pushing Halep around a little. Ostapenko has now faced three players in a row of similar quality - Wozniacki, Bacsinszky, and now Halep. All three of these players are what some people call counterpunchers - that is they prefer to play a defensive style of tennis, getting to a lot of balls and forcing their opponent to hit errors, rather than playing aggressively and going for winners every single time.
Halep, of course, is the best of these three players on clay and she's actually pretty capable of slamming a winner herself, though she more often than not starts off matches in defense mode. What that means for Ostapenko is a mixed bag. She will probably be able to get some impressive winners past with her power, but she will also hit lots of unforced errors. Like, a lot of them. She hit 50 unforced errors against Wozniacki and followed that up with 45 against Bacsinskzy. That won't get any better against Simona Halep, who is the best player in the tournament in getting to balls on clay.
So that's pretty much why Ostapenko will struggle, but what about Halep? Well, I know that it seems like Halep has turned a corner mentally, but I still don't think she's quite there yet. We saw against Svitolina her incredible comeback and there was a similar mental lapse against Pliskova, where Halep struggled to close out the match after a dominant first set, dropping the second, and getting broken back in the third. Halep can struggle against power players if she isn't getting her shots in and she does sometimes require a pep talk from coaches in big moments, which the Grand Slam format won't allow. The pressure will never be greater for Halep, who came so close in 2014, losing in the final to Sharapova. She knows that with her injury issues and with Azarenka, Sharapova, and eventually Serena Williams all getting back on the court, that her dream of winning a French Open is at its most possible right now. That will play with her confidence a little bit, especially if Ostapenko smokes some well-timed winners.
I think that we'll see a three set victory to Halep here. Ostapenko will come out aggressive because she only knows how to play at one pace and it's possible that she'll take the first set right off the bat. But, in the end, I think Halep has shown that she's figured out how to get her emotions back in check and close out matches. It's a new Simona Halep in 2017 and I think that calmness will eventually secure her the victory.
Great value on the over and the spread on Ostapenko, as if this only goes two sets to Halep, I think they'll be two close ones. Also, I'm sprinkling half a unit on Ostapenko ML because I am pegging the odds at 45/55 to Halep and at my own implied odds of 55%, taking Halep at -300 or more is just dumb.
If Ostapenko keeps it close, but loses, I'm down half a unit, but up a lot more on the other bets. BOL all and feel free to let me know your thoughts. Seems like a lot of people are with me on this one!
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