Posted:
#1
Just two matches today. BOL!
Ostapenko ML +118 1u
Ostapenko-Bacsinszky over 22 games +100 1u
Ostapenko wins 2-1 +425 0.5u
All in all, I think this could be a messy match. Ostapenko has the clear talent to beat Bacsinszky and this is surely her breakout year, but it's not going to be easy. If the Latvian is hitting the crazy lines and angles she hit against Wozniacki, she can run away with this, but it's likely going to take a while for her to get there. Bacsinszky is Wozniacki 2.0, which is to say that she is a consistent grinder who will make her opponent play a lot of extra balls, but has a little more skill with the drop shot and slice. Wozniacki was in full blown defense mode the entire match and I expect Bacsinszky to be a bit more tactical here and smart enough to play to Ostapenko's weaknesses, which are the unforced errors.
Speaking of unforced errors, I think Ostapenko will hit a lot of them still. She's all of 20 years old and plays at one speed all the time and that's just something you live with with her game. Bacsinszky has the veteran experience to maintain her composure and I think she will take a set, but that Ostapenko's power game will prevail in the end.
Halep -1.5 sets -123 1u
All the Halep lines are extremely juicy and that's probably because they're the right side. No complicated analysis here. Halep is really good on clay and Pliskova is not. That's all you need to know. Pliskova has amazingly gotten here with her serve, her forehand, and the fact that she has drawn opponents mentally weaker than herself. Halep looks locked into this set - evidenced by coming through her battle with Svitolina, which was her first true test of the tournament - and she's not going to be intimidated by Pliskova on clay. Halep will attack Pliskova's second serve and outside of the service game, she does literally everything on clay better than the Czech.
As far as the men's matches go, I would probably lean Murray and Nadal to make it to the final, but I think Thiem will keep it close and probably sneak away with a set.
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