Garin -114

Anyone have thoughts on Garin v Baez? I get that Baez could win this match and that he will have the crowd overwhelmingly in his favor, but I feel like Garin at this value is a steal. Way more experience than Baez who, despite trending up since last year, nearly got beat by Verdasco today. I have a habit of fading up-and-comers vs formidable veterans until they can prove to me that they have leveled up, and it has often worked well for me. This feels like an opportunity to exploit an overhyped player - in the same sense that Raducanu, Leylah Fernandez, and Alcaraz were grossly overvalued by linemakers at AO 22. 

Hey Moldy

I have the same instinct to wait for hyped "up and commers". I had Verdasco yesterday +380 and that was dissapointing....sigh. Oh....just looked at odds: Garin -110 Baez -115. Lots of juice there.

What u think about Mannarino +100 Fokina -130? This one might be interesting. Fokina didnt have a bad AO, lost to FAA in 4 sets, all tie breaks. But Mannarino did WAY better than his usual shitty self. I am tempted but Mannarino always finds a way to screw up my bets. But he IS home in France. 

I like fokina in this match...the only real advantage mannarino have is playing at home....any advice?

@Oxcarz

Yup, I was debating taking Verdasco on those +4.5 to +5.5 spreads, but I chickened out.

Mannarino and Fokina? I’m def staying away. In all my 15 years of degen tennis betting, I’ve probably only bet on Mannarino like 6 times. I’ve never been able to trust him, due to his unconventional playing style. He constantly outperforms expectations. On any given day, I feel he is as likely to beat someone in the top 40 as he is to lose to someone outside that top 70.

@moldypeach

 Yeah....ur take on Mannarino is spot on and I have the same experience when I bet on him. But he does look different to the eye so far this year. That short swing on the forehand and that super flat backhand works well against big hitters like Fokina (when he is getting them in the court).

I might take a small futures bet on him to win this thing.

@Oxcarz

Didn’t watch. But the service stats for that Mannarino match are wild. Sorry handy.

Sometimes just gotta learn to lay off matches. I had fokina in a parlay and there were no opportunity to hedge this bet. Mannarino had him since the beginning of the match