I first started betting on tennis in 2009. Before the big three. Sure Djokovic was a threat then but he didn't really win much until Federer entered his 30's a few years later. This is significant because of the betting lines on favourites at that time.
Some of you may remember the lines being -130 and +110 on slight favs, -300 to -700 was in abundance. Frequent winners like Monfils, Delpo, Cilic and Ferrer. The guys that would deep run but rarely win. I recall these lines being most apparent from about 2009 to 2015, end of Fed. Finally, the heavy favs, Federer and Nadal were around-2500 to -5000 in opening rounds of majors because of the certainty of advancement. As they moved deeper, the lines were more like -2000 to -900. These were common lines for the two greatest players.
When you look at the lines today, there are more close lines like -130 to +110's, and fewer -300's which used to be a big one. At the end of the spectrum, Sinner, Alcaraz and Djoker have lines like -5000 to -14000. Even Zverev, Medvedev and Tsitsipas have had lines like -5000 and -10000 I find this interesting because they haven' had the same success over the last couple years that Fed and Nadal had in their primes when the lines were the same or even better to bet on Fed and Nadal! I know what you're thinking, the line's aren't there based solely on probability to win, but rather action creation. Obviously the -2500 and -5000 lines weren't steep enough to keep the punters at bay.
But this is what complicates the lines. The field is tougher than ever and the matches are closer than ever. Not to mention, the game Federer played was different at the start of his career than the way the game was played at the end. It's even different today compared to where it was in 2017. The game and betting lines have changed so much so, that's it's tough to use historical data and numbers to validate past betting strategies within this sport.
The game of tennis has always been in a state of change and generational players either bring back an old tactic long forgotten or introduce something new. I feel like we are in the midst of one of these monumental changes. I say all of this as a harbinger of sports betting in tennis. This is a good time to get sharp and stick to traditional betting strategies. Find an edge and if there isn't one, no bet is a play. Take it easy on the all ins! Learn from Tanks last two weeks of mistakes and don't make them yourself to have to learn it!
I open this thread up to anyone whose found new recent success in tennis betting. I'd value any input myself and the rest of the forum might want to hear from you as well.
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