@handycat
I've been thinking about the Giron-Sandgren matchup since Sunday. The spread finally moved from 3.0 to 3.5, but I can't do it. Sandgren just isn't the same player he used to be. Since last year, he seems less energetic, less mentally stable on court (constant complaining, asking tournament directors to come out, that ejection in the summer for accidentally hitting a line judge), and like his head just isn't in the game the way it was when he was a top 60 or so player. He's been stuck in Challengers for a reason - not just because of his vaccination status.
I was debating taking +4.5 at -210, but there isn't enough value there. I can see him losing this in 2 or 3 very close matches. Hell, I can even see him winning it if his serve is on and he's showing positive body language. But I can just as easily see him losing 6-3, 6-3.
Giron absolutely choked in the Dallas Final, but I think he learns from that. I see him playing more aggressive and assertive if he has any leads this week.
I feel like the best opportunity in this match is going to be live. If Sandgren looks in good form and of good mind, I'll start taking advantage.
Would love to get yours and some other opinions on this. Also, I am going to approach Sock-Altmaier the same way. May bet live there, but I'm also working today. :/
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