Hi Livan
I hope you are well, I am more than happy
to give you my opinion hoping it does help you out with your decisions and
approach.
Those are some good questions you bring up and at least for today's
matches I think I can give you the answer. If other matches do come up
in the near future with other players you should be able to see the
difference in the lines yourself.
First of all, I would start by saying that WTA and ATP are two
completely different beasts when it comes to totals and that you
shouldn't compare a WTA match total with an ATP match total when you
are looking at the plays. Here is why.
Historically WTA players hold
serve about 63% of the time while ATP players about 77% of the time.
ATP matches see about 0.18 TieBreaks per set played while WTA matches
sees 0.12 TieBreaks per set played.
A 14% serve holding difference is huge as you can imagine as
well as having 6 TieBreaks more in a 100 sets scenario even though it
might not look as a big number.
Thing is that ATP players rely on serve much more than WTA players do,
therefore you have higher chances of a match being tight in men's
rather than women's.
Let's say this is a general rule.
Now going in detail about today's matches you have Querrey vs Acasuso.
Querrey is a player that relies on his service games a lot but he is
still to improve his return games (even though lately he is taking some
step forward). Matter of fact, if you look at the average stats for ATP
players compared to him you will notice a big difference on both serve
and return games:
Querrey holds 85.5% of the time but his opponents hold 80% of the time
(average ATP is 76% for both obviously.) This means chances are that
even if Acasuso is a class below him skillwise and on this particular
surface statistically he "should hold" 8 times out of 10. This is good
for 8 games, than you have to consider he is not a mug at all (he was a
Top 20 player 3 years ago), he knows how to play Tennis and that he
does return well (he wins 24% of the returning games just like ATP
average) and there you have it.
This match statistically could easily end 7-6 6-4 with 2 breaks for
Querrey and 1 for Acasuso but it could also end 7-6 6-3 with the same
amount of breaks from each player if Querrey serves first in the 2nd
set.
There is your gamble and that is why the line is right in between (7-6 6-4 is 23 games and 7-6 6-3 is 22 games)!
The other match between Verdasco and Andreev is very similar. Both players have an above average serve and return.
This means that the match could be tight, proof is these 2 fellas
played 14 sets in 4 encounters and even though Andreev won 7 sets the
h2h is 3-1 for Verdasco hence the odds difference.
Verdasco is the better player but this doesn't mean he will win the
match in straight sets. Andreev has also a very bad record in third
sets so while Verdasco should win the match relatively easy (even
though the line is generous towards Andreev and I wouldn't play
Verdasco at these odds) it doesn't mean the match could be tight.
Now let's take the WTA match as en example.
You have the line at 22.5 exclusively because you have Pennetta vs
Wozniacki otherwise it would have been 21.5 or below, I can almost
assure you this. Looking at the stats, both players hold serve and win
return games with a higher % than WTA players (63%).
Pennetta holds 72% of the time and opponents hold 59% of the time while
Wozniacki holds 72% of the time and opponents hold 55% of the time. So
there you see a big difference on each one of them compared to WTA
average. This might very easily be a 3 setter and the match could go
well over the total but in WTA apart from a few solid players (these 2
are right up there but not yet to be considered very solid in my modest
opinion) there is a player who plays the match of her life on Wednesday
only to be atrocious on Thursday, this is what you get betting women
and this match could go 6-3 6-2 for either one of them.
If you add to this one of the major tournaments is right around the
corner and you don't know how players are approaching these matches,
chances are in the long run you will lose your money betting on Totals.
I was a Total player but stopped because in the long run I wasn't
profiting as much as I wanted to. I do sometimes throw a total bet
these days but exclusively if I think a match will go 3 sets (therefore
I bet the Over), this means that if I have an opinion on a guy winning
easily in straight sets I much rather bet him to win 2-0 sets rather
than betting the Over the total, especially in Men's tennis because I
got burnt in the past betting either Under or Over.
However, what I do advice, is you monitor the lines for the Grand Slams
tournaments because the oddsmakers do some mistakes in those matches,
because there are only 4 of those during the year therefore while on
Best of 3 matches I consider it very hard to win in the long run
because oddsmakers are just too sharp, I think that some occasions do
arise in Best of 5 matches due to the fact that some players could
"relax" in a 3rd set being up 2-0 or other players aren't used to play
a Best of 5 and might look great for 2 sets only to struggle the next 2
sets. I hope it is not confusing.
I already have a Total play for US Open and can't wait to see the line for that one... It is Guccione vs Cuevas.
This match should fly over "any" total because neither one of those two
players according to me is solid enough to win in straight sets, each
of them has a great serve and both aren't very good in returning. I
would expect this line at 39 or so which means that if each set is
relatively tight (like it should be due to serve and return stats for
each player) either one of the 2 could win in 4 sets and the bet would
be a winner. We'll see.
In conclusion, house wins on Totals easily I would say. The sport of
tennis is a
rollercoaster and it is already hard enough to predict who will win the
match. If then I have to guess in how many games he or she will do it,
then it
gets even harder. Of course some guys win a lot on Totals and could
give you a different analysis, I think each fish has its own sea and
maybe I am not cut out for betting totals because in the long run I
wouldn't hit enough to win money.
I hope this made sense
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