Shanghai Notes from yesterday

One of the fastest tournaments on tour! Including grass.

• Stats back it up with higher than normal expected ace rate, service points won and service hold %
• Rublev, 2019: "Fastest court on tour. I prefer slower courts". 
• Murray, 2019 "The court is by far the fastest conditions that I have played in since I came back". 
• Thiem, 2018: "The courts are really fast, probably one of the fastest tournaments of the year".
• While it is the first time back since 2019 due to covid, the courts look as fast as they did before

Okay Jake, the courts are fast. What does that mean?

• Favors big servers, very hard to break 
• Underdogs - leads to closer matches and more tiebreaks
• Overs - more tie breaks, longer sets

Don’t the odds adjust for this?

• Yes to an extent, the odds will still be based on hard court statistics but the public and money will move odds slightly, but typically there is still value in playing these edges.

Hanfmann vs. Eubanks

Hanfmann is a big serving clay court guy, doesn’t make much sense right. But it basically means he is a great server and likes the clay to slow down the ball so he has time to take a big forehand swing. When he gets rushed on quicker courts is prone to hitting a lot of errors.

Eubanks is a massive server who should love these courts and hold serve/bomb aces. Problem is he is a very bad ATP returner, hasn’t played since vomiting on court at the US Open, and will be battling jet lag in China as he skipped the two Chinese warm up events.

Best Bet: Over 23 and over 2.5 sets. Both of these players have great serves, and will find it incredibly difficult to get anything going on the return game. This match could easily be 3 sets with 3 tie breaks. This line should be up at 24 or 25 games.

Good feedback - I've been hitting a lot of game under 6 pts on big servers.

Hanfmann Eubanks already passed right?

Ruud looked fucking fantastic. Only match I watched. Courts didn't look fast but that could've been Ruud hitting high bouncers and Nishi constantly hitting a drop shot. I like Humbert today.