Osaka/Djokovic....Anything paying even or better odds (I got way better than even) has to be +ev. Why?
Well to start, Osaka is VERY likely to topple Azarenka. Azarenka right now is a wall, a ball machine in fact. But she needs weak balls that allow her to baseline and stay back to do that. This was perfect against Konta, Vekic, Jabeur etc etc as these players don't generate shape or depth on the ball (well Vekic before the stan-breakup could but not anymore). Osaka is going to play her game, and could not play worse than she did today against a much better opponent in Mertens. My god how many first serves did Osaka miss in that second set? It's a wonder that she found a way out without going 3 sets.
Now for Nole. With a 100% healthy Nole we wouldn't even need a writeup to expect a str8 win tomorrow. But he's not feeling well, albeit well enough to be feeling like crap the whole match and still playing decently (except for serve). Agut is the worst type of matchup for Nole because he simply loves staying in these long rallies like most spanish clay court guys. But raonic is different. There's a reason the H2H is 10-0. Raonic hates playing the Djoker because Nole has the best return in the game and raonic lives on his serve. There's also the fact that Raonic doesn't enjoy the long types of rallies that Nole forces you into. With Nole's diet (pretty much vegan) and the fact that he is in pretty good form and shape, I feel that he'll rest up and do well at 1pm EST tomorrow, certainly well enough to be Raonic. Worse case scenario he withdrawls, but I think he won't.
Good luck!
TC41
1
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Osaka/Djokovic....Anything paying even or better odds (I got way better than even) has to be +ev. Why?
Well to start, Osaka is VERY likely to topple Azarenka. Azarenka right now is a wall, a ball machine in fact. But she needs weak balls that allow her to baseline and stay back to do that. This was perfect against Konta, Vekic, Jabeur etc etc as these players don't generate shape or depth on the ball (well Vekic before the stan-breakup could but not anymore). Osaka is going to play her game, and could not play worse than she did today against a much better opponent in Mertens. My god how many first serves did Osaka miss in that second set? It's a wonder that she found a way out without going 3 sets.
Now for Nole. With a 100% healthy Nole we wouldn't even need a writeup to expect a str8 win tomorrow. But he's not feeling well, albeit well enough to be feeling like crap the whole match and still playing decently (except for serve). Agut is the worst type of matchup for Nole because he simply loves staying in these long rallies like most spanish clay court guys. But raonic is different. There's a reason the H2H is 10-0. Raonic hates playing the Djoker because Nole has the best return in the game and raonic lives on his serve. There's also the fact that Raonic doesn't enjoy the long types of rallies that Nole forces you into. With Nole's diet (pretty much vegan) and the fact that he is in pretty good form and shape, I feel that he'll rest up and do well at 1pm EST tomorrow, certainly well enough to be Raonic. Worse case scenario he withdrawls, but I think he won't.
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