week before the french open plays

hey all, havent posted plays on here in a while but figure with the french coming up will begin to do so...the week before a major is typically a tough time to wager as you never know what players are motivated and which ones just want some rest before the big tourney or are just trying to tweak little things in their game and using matches more like practice sessions...that being said, there can be some good opportunities...on to the plays....

MONDAY

FALLA -135 over Istomin....Istomin is dreadful on clay, Falla is no clay court specialist but other then a big serve i dont see istomin troubling him here.

I think davydenko and fognini both pass to round 2, but both are known match fixers so not going near them, rest of the mens side doesnt really interest me.

PARMENTIER +4.5 over Lisicki....taking a stab here...this is only Sabine's 2nd tourney since injuring her left ankle in Charleston and retiring against Serena...she lost last week in round 1 to Erakovic, and then her and Peng withdrew from the doubles....Parmentier is no great shakes on clay, but she is playing in her home country which should be motivating, and i think she keeps this close and might even pull off an upset...If one can find more info how balky the ankle injury is, maybe sprinkle some on the ML and hope for a lisicki retirement is she is losing, never know.

BEGU -3.5 over Hsieh...playing on the more experienced clay courter here..she hasnt had great success this yr yet on the dirt, but over the last 2 yrs has put up a good number of wins albeit mostly on challenger tour, but her opponent rarely even plays on the clay, so i think this is a straight set win and would rather go for the -3.5 hc then lay the heavy -205 juice on the su win.

goodluck all!

Quote Originally Posted by packersbackers:

Despite this being a SAF convention, I gotta give you props for the parmentier play 

thx man...glad parmentier cashed in on the hc and won su, makes up for my call on begu, cant believe she couldnt beat hsieh on clay, awful play on my part there...falla will have to wait until tomorrow, but is already up to -150 on 5dimes from the -135 i had lastnight :)

thx buddy....yeah i knew begu has been a little off so far this yr but thought she would get it done, esp when she pulled out the 1st set tb i thought she would roll...ill have to be careful backing her for now until she gets her game together

Quote Originally Posted by packersbackers:

Romanian women as favorites should be auto fades,,, this is probably my 10th post on this,,, take them only as dogs, never as favs,,,,Romanian fixjobs are the easiest to predict 

yeah i think im gonna have to stay away from them lol, i learned the hard way, at least it was just on the HC and not her inflated ML :)

Monday recap: 1-1, 1 pending

PARMENTIER +4.5 over Lisicki=W (not counting the small amt i had on her ML as well which saved my ass today)

BEGU -3.5 over Hsieh=L

FALLA -135 over Istomin=pending

onto TUESDAY!!!

ATP

FALLA -135 wager still pending from Monday

BAKER -130 over Stakhovsky...normally I HATE backing any americans on clay other then Serena, but am gonna take a stab here...Baker has been on fire this clay season, posting a 9-1 record in qualies and challengers and Stak is no great shakes on clay, could be a sucker wager, but gonna bite on the low price

not much else on ATP interests me...berdych should dust roddick so the -5 looks intriguing but gonna pass on that.

WTA

nothing really stands out to me...possibly a play on pavly over scheepers but not posting it.

so since i have Falla still pending, and the play on Baker, just gonna sit tight on those, GL all

recap from tuesday.

FALLA -135 over istomin=L

BAKER -130 over stak=w

updated record 2-2

WED

ATP

sorry for lack of writeups its late and bed calls, but here are the selections

isner/malisse over 22.5

JCF even

WTA

AMG under 19.5

larrsson +108

qualies

lauren davis -120

Wed recap:

isner/malisse over 22.5=W

JCF even=L

AMG under 19.5=L

Larrsson +108=W

Lauren Davis -120=W

3-2 on the day

5-4 for the week.

onto thursday...

Isner/Davydenko over 23...davydenko has been in dreadful form, but he will have the advantage in rallies here, and big john should be able to serve and hold most of the time if not all the time, expect 2 tight sets or even 3 sets here and an over...almost an automatic to play an isner over esp on clay

Mayer -3.5 over Troicki...playing at home should be enough of an advantage for florian here

Sloan Stephens -130 over Morita...I like Stephens experience on clay, good results in challengers and qualies and a lot of matches...should be enough to get her over here against Morita who doesn't venture onto clay too often

as the french open nears gonna limit plays so gonna stick w these 3 for the day...GL to all

was hoping isner would pull out that tb to give me the win on the over but ill take a push given how he started the match...mayer im honestly kind of shocked at, didnt see that coming at all grr

"I was by far the better player in the first set," said Mayer. "It's my own fault that I didn't convert the three set points. It was bad luck, though, that he hit the line twice.

"But that's tennis. It's just a big shame, because I've been playing really well recently, it's disappointing to lose such a match."

thurs recap....1-1-1

isner/davy over 23=push

mayer -3.5 over troicki=L

sloan stephens -130 over morita=W

for the week 6-5-1

FRIDAY

Almagro/Simon over 23...this one goes 3 IMO which should give the over..2 of their 3 previous matches have gone over this total, including a match last yr on clay

taking a stab on davydenko/baker to end in 3 sets at +145 odds...this should be a grind of a match.

french qualies

Malek -130 over Zhang