Wow- Kyrgios is favored over Nadal

?? 

If Nadal is compromised, like he claimed he was, how bad will he want to win so he can then get his ass kicked by Djoker? But Kyrgios is a head case, so this is a real toss up. Over games might be the play as I can see each guy winning a set. 

Nadal is a master at rope a doping...for sure he's dealing with something but he'll have two day to recover and get world class treatment...while he's prepping for the semis in his secret bunker underground at location unknown between now and Friday, tricky Nicky will be having fun, being interviewed by all the paparazzi, busy fucking all breeders that have a pulse and weight under 110lbs,,,,probably even get a face tattoo tomorrow.

Kyrgios will very likely be exposed as the punk that he is by Rafa....Nadal respects the game and sportsmanship unlike any other, and he's been on record saying Nick's on court antics and past tanking don't belong on the tour. What a better stage than to pound him 61 63 64 with the entire tennis world watching...and you mean to tell Rafa is the betting dog? Where do I sign up for a significant wager on Rafa at B365, keeping in mind if he does retire due to injury, B365 voids all bets...be aware your book's rules on retirement if you're looking to bet this one.

Vamos Rafa.

Last 2 posts were spot on for different reasons entirely, but let's be real Rafa def looks compromised and Packers is def right as far as knowing what book you have and what can be voided. I agree over is the play as each will win a set or 2 and Nick is the type of player that can hit anyone off the court no matter how well you play ala Stan the Man in recent years. He's a f'ng head case as everyone knows, but he is a combined 5-6 vs Nole and Rafa in the past decade or so. They have played twice at Wimby and both times it went 4 with both players splitting a win. 

Rafa is the goat and will not lay down for anything def agree there and do believe regardless Joker is waiting to destroy someone in the final and expect better from you Caj lol.

Just kidding as you have been spot on this tourney, but gun to my head, I think Nick takes this, but will be pulling for Rafa as always and hope he takes down that Serbian machine again come Sunday 

Love all the talk. Was surprised to see Rafa as a solid dog. 

Nadal expressed doubts about his ability to take part in the semi-finals. With Fritz, the pain and mobility limitations have reached a new level. Will wait to see what the doctors have to say.

Great points guys. And like packersbackers stated, know you’re book’s rules! Worst outcome is to bet a player who is leading a match, but retires sometime after the first set is completed, and it’s graded as a loss. Happened to me about five years ago with Gael Monfils- I was fuming, and didn’t realize this was a possibility with the book I was using.

Wouldn’t this match in years past be played without a rest day between the quarters and semifinals? I don’t recall the precise scheduling format in years past. The way they formatted the semi-quarters over the weekend was bizarre and I still never got the point of that.

Nadal's body is beat up, but he's had a really long career, and I've heard people overthink themselves out of taking Nadal cuz of injuries and losing because of it plenty of times. 

I would never bet Kyrgios in general, let alone as a favorite. No value in someone that can have a meltdown against anyone at any time.

@slamspurs

I agree...Rafa will almost always enter a non-French Open slam only if he believes he can win it...he's never been 100% for years now, but his conditioning is unreal...my opinion is he realizes he's just 2 wins away from another slam, an improbable Wimbledon title which no one could have seen coming 6 months ago,,,he's playing for a potential grand slam this season having won the last 2...he's going to go all in with this Nick match and look for him to be on point right away in the opening set to crush Kyrgios dreams and spirits right out of the gate...less time he spends on court, the more reserves he has left in the tank for the finals...never easy going against Rafa at any stage of his career, but he's a man possessed with his life right now being so fulfilled and relatively healthy to allow this type of performance all year long.

I could never back Nick pregame in this spot, however taking him ingame live at +500 or higher if he loses the first set 61 or 62 fashion, the ingame algorithm might overvalue Rafa, thus giving good odds on Nick down 1 set...could be worth a sprinkle if you believe in the dog after the 1st set.

Also be aware of your books rules,,, ingame wagers on ML for some books will be graded upon any retirement if 1st set is completed,,, while most books void any ingame wagers on +/- games spread.

Should be a fascinating match,,,from a Rafa fan's perspective which I am, it's must watch TV 

Oxcarz if you're reading this, I miss you and hope everything is okay on your end. Love you dearly.

I Agree Pack that rafa will be ready to go and love the dog mentality, but I don’t think Rafa would ever retire mid match unless he legit can’t walk. I had a Fritz future and it’s funny my buddy texting me saying Fritz is going to get lucky again Rafa will retire this set (2nd set) I just laughed. He’s got too much heart to do that. So unless he withdraws before the match I don’t see him retiring. Hell take the loss like a man. It’s interesting for sure, I still can’t ever trust Nick, I thought you turned the corner going into Miami tourney, and then imploded vs Sinner where he had a nice draw to win that whole thing as well. I thought with the assault case coming out public we may have saw that yesterday but he passed that test. The value I saw yesterday right after Rafael win is Nick at +600 to win Wimbledon. I think it even touched 700 last night which is crazy, and it’s down to 500 now which I think it’ll stay at. I don’t see Nick being more than +200 vs joker , while I don’t see Joker ever losing to Norrie , you still never know what can happen. So I see the value in that if your going with Nick vs rafa. 

Yeah, people overreach too much when it comes to speculating that players are going to retire, or even lose a match, even a current set. They see a match from their television set or take too much stock into what an analyst says. And regardless of how good these analysts were as players, they aren’t spot on anymore than your local meteorologist. It’s not just the Nadal-Fritz match. Same was being said about Kyrgios in the second set the other day vs Nakashima. People thought Nick would retire. Whether they were being bamboozled by Nicks demonstrative wincing  over his shoulder pain, I don’t know. Regardless, Nick promptly broke Nakashima in that second set, snd went on to win.

My only concern is the degree to what Rafa's abdomen pull was,,,he really ended up winning versus Fritz without a first serve as he was mainly spinning them in, a few times with perfect placement for free points, but I think Fritz choked and played far less aggressively in the 4th and 5th sets than Rafa winning it...just my opinion.

If Rafa pops something in his mid area early on in this upcoming match and takes away his ability to serve, and is in pain, that's the only way I ever see him retiring ingame.

It's very plausible he will simply give the walkover to Nick if he's not good to go...too much uncertainty for me to ever bet this match pregame...the 1st set eyeball test is where I'm at with this one.

Rafa needs that first set more than Nick because of his condition. He will go all out, more than usual, to get off to a fast start. I think betting him to win the first or taking him at plus money and then hedging in game when the opportunity presents itself might be the way to go. 

Love the posts gents. Always a pleasure reading all of your tennis knowledge in these threads. Can't wait for this match.

 Edit: looks like he withdrew. Damn, it must have been extremely bad for Rafael to bow out. I bet he was mustering every ounce of will to face Nick too, he has to be incredibly disappointed. Only he knows his own body best.

Rafa out