Slim's NFL Picks

Hi All,

Very simple system that I will be using here. One pick a week, with the possibility of two if it makes sense to do so. All bets will be 5 units and will increase as total pot increases. Some days I may include a half unit 3 team parlay for shits and giggles. I have been 2-1 so far in the season (loss being Cardinals ATS Week 1). I will be starting at 0-0 for the sake of this thread though

Record: 0-0

Week 3 Pick: Broncos -3 (-112)

Positives:

·        Got to love Richard Sherman’s comments on IR reports being for gamblers… well he is right. Marcell Dareus is out and will likely be replaced by Adolphus Washington who weighs 20 pounds less. This is a better match up for Broncos C. Secondly, Bills LT (Cordy Glenn) is out and replaced by rookie Dion Dawkins. Once Dawkins replaced Glenn against the Panthers, you could notice that the Bills could not get any run going that side. I expect him to get owned by Shaq Barret. I am expecting a weak run game form the bills. Tough to say that when McCoy has a tendency for big plays.

·        Broncos CBs: I expect a lot of Cover 1 in this game with Broncos LBs crowding the line of scrimmage and closing any pockets available. Bills do not run many 3WR formations so this will work well

·        Big ol’ O-line perfect for Man Blocking: Broncos made the shift to man blocking this year and it has paid dividends in the run game. With Dareus out, the Bills D-line is small compared to the Bills D-line. I expect the run game to be working for the Broncos this game allowing them to control the clock. If that plays out, the play action will begin slowing the Bills quick LBs and opening some holes

Negatives:

·        Bills pass protection is pretty solid. I do not expect as much pressure as usual coming from Miller. If anything, pressure will be coming from Shaq and MLB.

·        Tyrod Taylor: No way to predict how much he is going to run but the Broncos have done a good job lately of collapsing the pockets from the sides. If the middle open there will be coverage from the MLB

·        Shaq Lawson vs Menelik: I expect Shaq to win this battle. Lots of pressure will be heading Trevor’s way from the right.

Neutrals:

·        Bills have played a lot of zone coverage. With their quick LBs it has been pretty effective. Broncos off has done a good job lately finding holes in the zone schemes run against them so we will see how this plays out.

·        Expect a lot of check downs to McCoy

-S