By Matt Fargo
Regular Season Win Totals and AFC North/Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings)
Baltimore Ravens: 10.5 Over -120 Under +100~ AFC North Winner +145 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,000
Cincinnati Bengals: 10.5 Over -125 Under +100 ~ AFC North Winner +140 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,300
Cleveland Browns: 8.5 Over -135 Under +115 ~ AFC North Winner +600 ~ Super Bowl Winner +4,000
Pittsburgh Steelers: 8.5 Over +120 Under -145 ~ AFC North Winner +800 ~ Super Bowl Winner +5,000
Coaching Changes
None
Team Previews
Baltimore Ravens: 14-5 ~ 3-3 AFC North ~ 12-7-0 ATS ~ 8-10-1 O/U
Won AFC North, Lost in AFC Championship
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 2
Notable Additions: RB Derrick Henry, OT Josh Jones, LB Chris Board
Notable Losses: QB Tyler Huntley, RB J.K. Dobbins, RB Gus Edwards, WR Odell Beckham Jr., WR Devin Duvernay, OT Morgan Moses, G Kevin Zeitler, G John Simpson, DE Jadeveon Clowney, DE/OLB Tyus Bowser, LB Patrick Queen, CB Ronald Darby, CB Rock Ya-Sin, S Geno Stone
Notable Draft Selections: CB Nate Wiggins, OT Roger Rosengarten, DE Adisa Isaac, WR Deonvtez Walker, CB T.J. Tampa
Baltimore gained the No. 1 Seed in the AFC last season as it put together an impressive 13-3 record before dropping their meaningless Week 17 game where they rested most starters. The three meaningful losses were by a combined 12 points and they rolled into the Divisional Round of the playoffs with a blowout win over Houston before losing to Kansas City in the AFC Championship as they committed three turnovers, two in the redzone. Despite going through a fairly big overhaul, the Ravens have one of the best rosters in the league led by reigning MVP Lamar Jackson who came into camp in the best shape of his career. There are issues though as they have to replace three offensive linemen which is significant in this run-first offense that also lost both top running backs. They signed Derrick Henry but he is on the other side of his career. There are also a number of changes along the line on defense but there has been depth there and with a secondary that remains mostly intact, the No. 2 ranked defense in EPA will be fine. While they have the second toughest schedule in the NFL based on opponent win percentage from last season, the Ravens have the No. 1 Net Rest advantage as they get 16 more days of rest than their opponents (in contrast, the 49ers have the worst at -21 days). The slate is tough early on with four of their first five games against Kansas City, Dallas, Buffalo and Cincinnati, all of which are in the top ten in Super Bowl odds.
The 10.5 wins look to be spot on as we see about 12 games that are swing games so going just 6-6 in those will give them the over but in all actuality, the Ravens should win more than those as we are counting all division games in that mix. The net rest edge is a huge advantage as well as they caught a break with the condensed grouping of some schedules is affecting a lot of teams. The Ravens are not the favorites to win the AFC North which is based on their schedule and personnel changes but they will be right there although there is no value on this number after coming in at +220 last season. Barring significant injury, getting to and winning the Super Bowl is in play but as is the case again, the AFC is loaded and wide open.
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