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Analysis and picks for August 27, Sept 1, and Sept 2 are up now.
example write up below
Grande Valley Sports
Virginia Tech @ Old Dominion
Virginia Tech -8, O/U 52.5
Quick Notes
VA TECH 2-8 ATS last 10 times as road favorite
3 previous matchups ('17-'19) featured lines of VT favored by 27.5, 28.5, 28.5
Analysis
Va Tech was 3-6 over their final 9 games last season, including being absolutely obliterated in the bowl game by a fairly mediocre Maryland team who themselves had lost 6 of 8 entering the matchup.
On the other side, Old Dominion did not play at all in 2020, and started last season 1-6. They were a dog in all 6 losses, and in 5 of the 6 losses they were a dog of 13 or more points. Then Old Dominion got into the manageable part of the schedule and won their last 5 games. In those last 5 games, Old Dominion was favored twice, and three times they were a dog of less than a TD. All winnable games, and the Monarchs took care of business to finish the regular season 6-6 and qualify for a bowl, which they ultimately lost to Tulsa.
Old Dominion returns 10 starters on offense. After struggling through the first 7 games last season, being held to 21 or less points in 5 of first 7 games, this unit scored 36 points per game over their final 5 regular season games. Over their final 6 regular season games, the offense averaged over 425 yards per game.
The stat models come up firmly on the side of Old Dominion. In fact, according to the stat models, the wrong team is favored here. While the yardage breaks down nearly even, huge advantages to Old Dominion in efficiency. The consensus model comes in with Old Dominion by 8, with outliers of Va Tech by 1, and Old Dominion by 13. The models all come in a bit to the OVER, with most of the models converging around 58, with a low model of 53. But I’m more interested in the side here.
Old Dominion looks like a live dog here. The stat models scream to take the points, Old Dominion is more experienced, highly efficient, and Virginia Tech has been a poor road favorite, just 2-8 ATS in that role. It could be telling that each of the previous three times these team met from ’17 through ’19, the Hokies were favored by around 28 points each time, (losing outright 35-49 in ’18 here at OD!!), but are favored by just 8 here. The Monarchs were a good team at the end of last season, while the Hokies were not. I’ll take the generous points here.
OLD DOMINION +8
Old Dominion 31 , Virginia Tech 24
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