It will soon be "that time" again and I just wanted to share a thought on the upcoming NFL season, something that will have a major impact on my thinking and something you should think about as well.
With the increasing awareness that football can cause serious and permanent brain injury, we see more and more elite athletes getting out of the game far before their playing days would normally come to an end. At the "macro" level, this means that many teams will be plagued by lesser talent and a distinct lack of depth. Rosters will roll over quicker as the average NFL lifespan (already brief) shortens. Look for more and more players to come into the league, hit that one big contract, and get out while they can still spell their own name and walk without a limp.
In terms of handicapping, I think the impact will be significant. First, and most important, good coaching will become ever more important. Those that can teach and get less than stellar players ready to perform will record more ATS success. That may sound obvious, but it's not. Look to play the coaches who are teachers, not "geniuses." Expect smart teams to rest players in blowouts and look to conserve stars wherever possible. This, I believe, will lead to a slight drop in scoring, especially in "high line" games, as well as the extra back door cover or two. Finally, and you may not ever see confirmation of this, watch for teams to take the occasional game off (not that they won't try. more subtle than that) when the opponent. travel schedule and standings permit it.
All in all, the pro game will continue to evolve in the interest of safety and handicapping will have to change along with it. The "numbers" will remain the numbers, but the motivational aspects for each team are going to change significantly from week to week and, hopefully, create edge for those who can read the tea leaves.
It will soon be "that time" again and I just wanted to share a thought on the upcoming NFL season, something that will have a major impact on my thinking and something you should think about as well.
With the increasing awareness that football can cause serious and permanent brain injury, we see more and more elite athletes getting out of the game far before their playing days would normally come to an end. At the "macro" level, this means that many teams will be plagued by lesser talent and a distinct lack of depth. Rosters will roll over quicker as the average NFL lifespan (already brief) shortens. Look for more and more players to come into the league, hit that one big contract, and get out while they can still spell their own name and walk without a limp.
In terms of handicapping, I think the impact will be significant. First, and most important, good coaching will become ever more important. Those that can teach and get less than stellar players ready to perform will record more ATS success. That may sound obvious, but it's not. Look to play the coaches who are teachers, not "geniuses." Expect smart teams to rest players in blowouts and look to conserve stars wherever possible. This, I believe, will lead to a slight drop in scoring, especially in "high line" games, as well as the extra back door cover or two. Finally, and you may not ever see confirmation of this, watch for teams to take the occasional game off (not that they won't try. more subtle than that) when the opponent. travel schedule and standings permit it.
All in all, the pro game will continue to evolve in the interest of safety and handicapping will have to change along with it. The "numbers" will remain the numbers, but the motivational aspects for each team are going to change significantly from week to week and, hopefully, create edge for those who can read the tea leaves.
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