Free 2016 NCAA Football Preseason Guide from TheSportsCruncher

Washington State Notes

The Cougars had a fairly inauspicious start to the 2015 season, greeting the home fans to the season with a 24-17 loss to FCS Portland State. They followed that up with a last minute win at Rutgers, and a ho-hum 31-14 win against a poor Wyoming team. Wyoming actually outgained WSU in that game, but didn't score at all after the 1st quarter.

Their first conference game was a close loss at Cal. I don't know if anyone saw what was coming up for the Cougars, though, as they clawed their way through their tough PAC-12 schedule with wins against Oregon, Oregon State, Arizona, Arizona State, UCLA and Colorado.

They should have beaten Stanford as well, missing a last second 43 yard field goal attempt that would have given WSU the one point victory. The Cougars' field goal kicker was 5 for 5 in the game prior to the deciding miss.

Their final conference game was a resounding 45-10 loss at Washington, though, a game I loved the surging Huskies in at home.

Can Washington State expect similar success in a loaded PAC-12 conference again?

Coaching

Little to report on here -- Pirate Mike Leach continues his revival of the Washington State offense with the super pass-heavy Air Raid scheme. It's Leach's 5th year on the job, and defensive coordinator Alex Grinch's 2nd.

Offense

The Cougar's passing game is all about efficiency -- throwing short passes for a high completion percentage over, and over, and over...One of their only deeper threats, WR Dom Williams, is gone. If the Cougars can't stretch the field effectively defenses will be able to cheat closer to the line of scrimmage, disrupting the timing of the passing game.

When the Cougars do hand off, their running backs achieve an excellent ypc average. But their passing game takes enough sacks (40 in 2015, tied for 10th most) that the Cougars' running game numbers end up being abysmal every year in Leach's system. Last year I ranked their run game 121st out of 128.

Washington State will be plugging in new starters on the left side of the offensive line, while returning the center and right side. 4 of their 5 backup offensive linemen are redshirt Freshman. Line play figures to be no better than last year really, and could be an outright liability with injuries to the returning starters.

With QB Falk having a full year of experience under his belt, I am giving WSU a +10% to their passing projections, in spite of the possible liabilities I mentioned. WSU's low yards per pass average makes the bump a fairly conservative one, though. I gave the Cougars a +10% bump to their rush projections as well, as there's nowhere to go but up on last year's numbers, and they return all of their running backs.

If the line play does improve for WSU this year, their overall offensive ratings could go up quite a bit, because they have the skill players just waiting for more room to work on the field.

Defense

The Cougar's defense graded out quite a bit higher than their offense last year. I will admit their offense is better than the main metrics I use indicate. Their high completion percentage extends drive and turns them into scores more successfully than other teams with below average  yards per pass averages, and down near zero yards per carry averages.

The strength of Washington State's defense is pass defense, where they finished up ranking 31st best last year, good enough for 3rd in the PAC-12 behind UCLA (5th) and Washington (18th). The secondary should be solid again this year, returning 85% of their tackles.

The run defense is where things start to get dicey for the Cougars. I ranked them 70th last year, 7th best in the conference, and even one spot behind Cal's 69th ranked unit, even though they gave up 26 fewer rush yards per game than Cal.

Washington State loses their top two tacklers from last year's defensive line, making now a Sophomore Hercules Mata'afa the returning leader. Junior Daniel Ekuale will have to step up on the line this year, too.

The linebacking corps loses some depth and one of last year's top tacklers, Jeremiah Allison, but returns overall top tackler Peyton Pelluer.

While Washington State's pass defense rates to have another solid year, the rush defense also rates to have another mediocre year.

Crunched

Overall I've given the Washington State offense those 10% projection bumps, and then very small positive bumps and negative bumps to the pass and rush defenses, respectively.

Let's look at the 2016 schedule and see how the numbers play out, then.

After a week #1 FCS game the Cougars start off with a tough road trip to Boise State. I project the Broncos to win by almost a touchdown, but with all of the defensive turnovers that Boise State will be dealing with a Washington State win wouldn't surprise me at all.

After that comes a win at Idaho.

October will be a brutal month for Washington State, with home games against Oregon and UCLA, and road games at Stanford and Arizona State. I project losses in all four, with the game at Arizona State being the most winnable at almost a toss up.

November brings some schedule relief against what should be bottom half PAC-12 teams playing at Oregon State and Colorado, with road games at Arizona and Cal. I project the opposite of October here, with Washington State winning all four of these games.

The regular season ends with a home game against Washington. The Huskies are a deservedly hyped team this year, and I project them to beat Washington State in the 35-21 range.

I project Washington State to win 6.2 games with a 6-6 record this year. They have a win floor of 2 games and a win ceiling of 10. I can't see the Cougars really improving to the point where they're consistently better than the top PAC-12 teams they face on their schedule.

Let's say they do beat Boise State plus all of the other games they're supposed to win. That puts them at 7 wins. That means they still have to pull of one more upset of either Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, Arizona State or Washington to get to 8 wins. So by my projections you're looking at a succession of best case scenarios having to line up for the Cougars to go Over the 7.5 season wins line. If Washington State has a stumble or two like they did last year suddenly they could be looking at a 5 win season...or even less.

In sum it just seems much more likely that Washington State wins 7 games or less than 8 games or more in 2016, making the Under 7.5 season wins a solid value.

San Diego State Football 2016:  A Favorable Aztec Calendar

Four games into the 2015 NCAAF season and things were looking downright apocalyptical for the Aztec football team: a 1-3 record comprised of a thorough drubbing by Cal, an unthinkably embarrassing home loss to Southern Alabama, and then a predictable loss at Penn State. SDSU didn't deserve any of those games, either. Even Southern Alabama outgained them by 206 yards.

The lone win was against the San Diego Toreros in week #1. They didn't play particularly good in that game, either, but were the beneficiaries of two pick 6s and a +5 turnover margin.

I didn't hate that loss to Southern Alabama, as I had both they and SDSU with season win Over plays last year, and I figured SOAL was going to need wins more than SDSU.

That turned out to be the case. SOAL ended up with 5 wins, winning the Over 3.5. 5.0 wins was exactly what I modeled for the Jaguars last year. Success! lol

For SDSU the projection was 8.6 wins and a 10-2 raw record. With little room left to spare for the Over 7.5 (with a stiff -175 juice), the Aztecs rattled off 9 straight wins including a conference championship win over Air Force. The success of the season was further solidified with an absolute thumping of the QB Kiel-less Cincinnati Bearcats in the Hawai'i Bowl. It was one final chance for a big play on the Aztecs and it was clearly marked on our calendar.

Can the Aztecs repeat the successes of 2015?

Coaching

Rocky Long enters his 5th year as head coach of the Aztecs this season. He holds the defensive coordinator reins as well, and it is that side of the ball the Aztecs excelled at last year, finishing 2015 as my 24th best ranked defense, versus 79th best for the offense.

Jeff Horton continues as the offensive coordinator and running backs coach. Jeff has a ton of experience at both the collegiate and NFL level.

No shake ups here is good new for projecting continuity.

Offense

SDSU does lose starting QB Maxwell Smith this year, but I don't think anyone is particularly concerned, as he put up pretty average numbers and didn't contribute to the run game. This year's projected QB starter, Christian Chapman, put up better passing numbers while providing a running threat. He threw for 22% of SDSU's passing yards last year, so he won't be completely green, even if he's just a Sophomore.

The left side of the offensive line and center are Senior strong, but the right side will have some new bodies, so if there's a weakness, it's likely to be there.

Last year the Aztecs had a great 1-2 punch at running back with Donnel Pumphrey and Chase Price, who both averaged near 5.4 ypc, while gaining 51% and 31% of the team's rush yards, respectively. Rashad Penny had a 6.0 ypc average on 61 carries last year, so look for him to scoop up Price's carries.

SDSU's run game should, if anything, be even stronger with QB Chapman's mobility this year. SDSU returns a solid 72% of its' receiving yards, so as long as Chapman doesn't regress the Aztecs rate to move a little higher than the 79th ranked offense of last year.

Defense

The Aztecs return 76.1% of their tackles, 76% of their sacks, and 65% of their interceptions.

The defense should be good.

SDSU does lose kicker Donny Hageman. He put up decent, if not spectacular numbers, but breaking in new kickers and punters is  generally statistically bad for teams.

2016 College Football Season Wins Wagers: Best of the Rest

Now that 5Dimes has numbers up for every FBS team at -110 juice, it's the perfect time to see which lines still have value and are worth putting a chunk down on. For tracking purposes I'm going with just a 1/2 unit flat for each play.

To recap, in write ups I've so far recommended plays on Toledo Over 6.5 (now 7.5 +120, still enough value for a 1/2 unit play), Navy Over 6.5 (7 at +130 just slightly worse), SDSU Over 8.5 (at 9 -155 juiced to the Over of far less value now, would probably pass), and Washington State Under 7.5.

Air Force Over 8.5 (-125). 8s were available at South Point earlier this summer, but we'll stick with the 5Dimes lines, even though it's much worse here. As long as Air Force's offensive line and QB play doesn't regress too much this season (up to 15-20% less in the passing game projections and 7-10% worse in the run projections are acceptable regressions for my projections) Air Force has a chance to run the table this season. Their defense was underrated last year, and returns almost 83% of its' tackles. The only toss up games for them I see are @USU, vs. Navy and vs. Boise. Games vs. UNM, @Army and @SJSU won't be gimmies, but I like AFA to win them by about a touchdown.

Appalachian State Over 8.5 (-110). The Mountaineers will start the season off with a loss at Tennessee, but then has a chance to scoop up a win in every remaining game. Vs. Miami and @Georgia Southern will be their two biggest tests, and if they drop those the buffer is gone. Fortunately I have APP favored by more than a touchdown in every other game on their schedule, so as long as they don't trip up @Akron or @Troy it should be good. APP loses about 1/2 of their receiving yards and a couple of key lineman, but even with some regression they should hit the 9 wins. Defensively they return 78.5% of their tackles.

Army Over 5 (-130). With two FCS games, a home game against Rice and a game @UNT I really like Army's win floor at 4 games, meaning they just have to grab one more to push the 5.  Games @UTEP, vs. Buffalo vs. AFA are their best candidates for another win. This is Army's most veteran squad in several years, so the time is right for them to start winning some of the close games, instead of losing them all, lol. *Losing both their punter and kicker is not good, but I've factored that into the projections.

Cincinnati Under 7.5 (-130). CIN had a down year by HC Tuberville's standards, and I don't project much of a rebound this year. Their rush defense was 123rd last year. They do return a high 80.6% of their tackles, including some freshmen who saw a decent amount of playing time last year, so I do expect some improvement against the run. Offensively losing QB Kiel to injury for some games last year was detrimental to the team, in spite of QB Moore's record setting first game when thrust into action. The problem this year is that CIN only returns 16% of their receiving yards, their top running back, and both their starting tackles. Cincinnati should be competitive in all of their games, but I project them to go 3-4 in games decided by less than a touchdown and just a 5-7 record overall. I know I project Cincinnati to finish lower in the conference than just about everyone else, so their record at the end of the year will be one of the ones I'm most interested in.

Florida International Under 5.5 (-140).  The Under has been hammered really hard but there's still some value here. FIU was pretty bad last year and I've them some small improvement bumps across the board for them. Still, it should be a rough year. They don't have a single lock game on their schedule, in no small part because they don't have an FCS opponent scheduled this season. I do project them to win 3 games vs. FAU, @UTEP and @CHAR. UTEP is projected to make a bigger bounce back than I'm giving them credit for, and if that's the case, that toss up game will instead be a 3-4 point loss on average. FIU does have some closely scheduled losses that I project, @ MASS (virtual coin flip) and vs UCF being the most winnable, and games vs. Louisiana Tech and @Old Dominion should be kept within a score. FIU will have to win pretty much all of their close games for the bet to lose, though, , so for a second straight year I like FIU to go Under on the season wins.

Fresno State Under 4 (EV). Fresno was a horror show at QB last year, a long bloody string of injuries and suspensions. You have to expect at least some kind of consistency from the position this year, if in jersey number only. As such, I've given them a 15% bump to passing projections. Other than that I'm not optimistic for their improving as they lose both starting tackles and center, workhouse RB Marteze Waller (55% of Fresno's rush yards), while returning a below average 58.2% of their defensive tackles. Fresno should get an FCS win and a probable home win late in the season against Hawaii, but that might just be it. Of the remaining games, I only project them to be less than a touchdown dog in one of them, in the final week at home against San Jose State.

Iowa State Over 3.5 (+115). Matt Campbell takes over as HC and inherits a pretty veteran squad whose only real issue is implementing a new starting offensive line. Rushing the ball was ISU's strength last year -- it will be interesting to see how they rank at year's end. ISU opens with a home game against FCS Northern Iowa in which they are just 7 point favorites, a smaller number than what I like them at against both San Jose State and Kansas. That should be three wins there, though they're not prohibitive favorites in any game this year. I put ISU's win ceiling at 6 games, as I think the only other winnable games on their schedule are vs. Kansas State (a 2 point win), @Texas Tech (a 1 point loss), and versus West Virginia (a 6 point loss). It would be cool to see the Cyclones pull off a bigger upset against one of the top half conference teams. I'm not banking on it for the play, but it would obviously be some great insurance.

Marshall Under 8.5 (+105). Marshall posted a 9-3 record last year, which was a disappointment for them considering their recent successes, yet they probably weren't even as good as that 9-3 record would indicate. While defensively they were still a pretty good team (2nd in the CUSA by my rankings, just two spots behind Louisiana Tech at 71st), their offense completely fell apart without QB Cato to lead them. They finally settled on freshman QB Litton, and with him they started to put up decent passing numbers. RB Johnson was hampered with injury for much of the year, and they really missed him. Johnson averaged 1.2 ypc more than anyone else on the team. Now he is gone, as well as another starting back, Remi Watson. The top two wide receivers, Davonte Allen and Deandre Reaves are gone as well. The good news for the Marshall offense, other than some returning experience at QB is a more mature offensive line. Defensively Marshall returns a below average 55.8% of their tackles. Marshall should lose vs. Louisville and @PITT, especially with those games being early in the season. Now they have only one more loss to give to still go Over 8.5. I project them to lose at Southern Miss., and to lose a squeaker at home against Western Kentucky in the final game. If they end up splitting those games, they still have toughish games at Old Dominion, Middle Tennessee and Florida International. ODU and MTU will be tougher outs than they were last year.