Handicapping horses both types no fail system 45 years experience

ONE thing about horses you must remember YOU do not need to win the race to WIN the $$$

I cant tell you how many times i took longost shot on board for like $5 across heavy chalk 4-5 wins pays $2.20 my bomb paid $14 to place $6 to show so i lost the $5 win bet but wow WON $50 on place and show money a profit of $45 meanwhile the ones who bet the chalk for $15 only won $12

any way heres what you need start with the thouroughbreds handicapping

a calculator a must have and theeeeeeeeeeeee DRF not the short small version you want the full version showing at laest past 10 races of each horse.
O before we start in history of all racing world wide the 4 winningest post positions are 2-4-6-7

SO heres what we do using last 6 races of each possible contender , in other words only about 4 horses in each race will get the win , you give each horse 300 points for a Win 100 points for place 50 points for a show

so if horse A has 1  win 2 places no shows he gets 500 added to his Class rating.

YES we are handicapping horses on money earned per race.

SO this horse in 13 races has earned lets say $12,500

divide that $ figure by 13 races he is earning $961.53 per race

add the 500 points in for the W's P's and S's =a rating of 1461.53  drop the .53 it will not effect the others .... now circle this horse he is a contender.

next horse you do has 2 p's 3 S's so he gets 350 for that

he has run 15 races and earned 17,550 he earns $1170 per race so this horse final rating is higher than 1st horse
 = 1520 vs 1461 59 points better which equates to about 1 place better.

3rd horse you do gets 0 for wins places and shows

ran 18 races earned 17,750 = a rating of 986.11

not as strong as other two but not to crossed off

4th horse has 2 wins 2 places and 2 shows in other words this horse is 100% money in last 6 races he gets in 3rd or better but the phony shows he has run 20 races and earned only $12,800= $640 per race + 600 for the W's P's and S's =
1240 laso of course this horse was winning at lower claimers at a small track with faster surface than this one

maybe good for 4th place but to win i doubt it

OK you have 12 horses in this field it is sprint race 6 furlongs ...

scartch off the #1 post unless that horse has outstanding speed at all poles and can stay in front on a slow pace allowing to be clear!

when you have 9 horses or more in any short race remove #1 post because he will be trapped by outside speedsters and wind up fading.

DO NOT EVER BET ANY HORSE OFF A WIN who has been out of action 4 weeks or more. I automatically remove these horses from clamiers and bottom allownce races because a horse can only remain in form 3 weeks at most

it's shorter in harness races you want that horse back within 2 weeks after a win or after last race

Horses must be raced into condition. Workouts means zilch

Unless the workouts are at distance of the race that is 6 furlongs showing a time equal to the other horces.

that is he ran 6 furlongs in 1:12 .4


other horses to be removed from every race those running off a calim just bought ,and has new owner jockey trainer etc...  Takes time for horses to get accostoumed to new stable mates and surrondings.

remove any horse you see that was involed in b 2 b wars a win then a loss by narrow margin while in a fast paced race.

and this horse is heavy chalked??? yes because everyone feels he will do as always come out of gate take lead and win going away.

remember who makes the odds every race the bettors do.

Many years ago back in 90's i hit a 99-1 horse ran 2nd becuse he was way over priced what a payoff i bet $3 across and winner was 8 -1 MY horse paid a whopping $64 to place and $20 to show the exacta was through the roof

no body at our OTB had it I lost the race and won $126

your odds on favorites will win 1 out of 3 races on avaerage

thatis the 2-1 fav. ..but many times your 2nd choice favored horse at 7/2 is better than the favored horse.

many times i can spot a horse just by watching odds not even looking at race form.


Any in short with throughbreds Speed is matter of all other things being in place.

that is running in same class as before same distance rated in top 4 contenders (u want horses to earn min. of $1000 per arce... without adding w's P's and s's)

Another factor always is winds if you have winds blowing

this Way > and are high winds like 15 mph + remove your gate hustlers front runners.  They will be chopped hamburger at final turn no matter how big of a lead they start out with wind up off the board.

I won on 3 days last year the track was Balmoral based near chicago.
 But sigh the locals also know thier track but baby i was getting 9/5 - 2/1 up to 4/1 every race and won every race i bet passed on two of them 1 night with 1st timers in.
other two nights won 9 races out 9 bet i didnt like 3 races

using same system as above.

harness racing is easier to grade than the saddeld horses.

all u need is the program.

and watch the live start with our Flag blowing.

or just watch 1st race to see if winds are blowing in horses faces.

also every track has it's bias post positions.

Philly park the 6 post in sprints is strong

Balmoral weird the 5 post is in every race top 3 finsihers most races out of 12 #5 hits the board.

So thats the nuts n botls of handicapping horses.

Remember you do not have to win every race if you win 4 races out of 10 YOU made money.

This is straight betting only no exacts, no trifectas, no superfactas, no any exoctic wagers.

Think this way 4 races with average odds of 3/1  you bet $10 on each winner YOU won $120 you bet 3 other races lost $30

you made $90 in what 3 hours time?

Sit me down every day baby that = $540 a week for 5 days tax free income.

= $28080 for the year.

OF course the more you bet per race the more you win

When i get odds of 5/1 or more i bet place money also

or all across the board if 8-1 or higher.

some nights it's every race i bet because the horses i find are eligible.

Last time i went was at local casino about 12 miles from home because the local OTB 1/2 mile away closes early and i can't bet last two races.

I dont gamble in the local PA casinos anymore becuse they are poor % payouts on slots and do not offer the poker game i prefer nor craps prices like $5 or $10 tables.

Was last month i played Balmoral track and quietly hammered them for $565.

it's funny but the horse players are quiet there i guess because the poker room is also right next to them.

I don't have time to go every day too much stuff going on at home the weather killing me. Trash not removed i had to bag it up and haul away else where.

like ok wtf City decided to not pick up last week due to snow.

Gimme the warm weather   every time even 90 degree days with high humidity it's easier to cool off than getting warm.

Hell a tall frosty glass of water spalsh face with cold water and arms kick up feet in air conditoned home your good to go.

Use to go to the track often for many years. Miss the atmosphere and live racing, but TVG has made it too easy to sit at home to handicap and place your wager without standing in line or forbid - get shut out. Good Luck fellow horse player.  See You in the Winner's Circle !

Wow, lot's of reading..... still ,  pretty good

I used to go to the races in Montreal, long time ago...

I would mostly look at one thing when betting horses..... the last quarter mile.....who was the fastest in that last stretch... i actually had pretty good success
I used to go through the program for hours trying to find an edge, the one day, an old guy, must have been 75, told me,,,''son, the moneys in the last 30 seconds...... that's it and that's all '''
 

So do you bet just to win if the horse is less than 5-1.? And win and place for horses 5-8 to 1? My handicapping skills are not bad and you certainly gave much more insight. But my money management skills are poor at times

Keep up the winning

@  nghia1973  last 30 secs can be detrmined using the daily racing form take the last 1/4 pole time and subtract from finish time for each horse.

LIKE so if  3/4 time was  43 secs finish was 1:13



the horse that ran fastest from 3/4 to finish is usually

good bet in next race



if your horse was at ya know what this doesnt make sense because to have lower seconds in final 1/4 your horse would need to be slower than the rest like instaed of 43 secs he would need to at 50 secs and run final quarter in 23 secs. 

any way no need to use the fractions of the race just keep simple.


CLASS your horses 1st and foremost then the speed is result of all other factors being in place

Just because a horse ran faster than all others in lower priced races at  smaller clamiers at another track does not make that horse a winner aginst higher priced Claimers.

that math i showed amount of races run divded into money earned will tell you the class of your horses .


YOU want a figure of $1000 per race Earned as a minimum.

but also consider horses that come in at $900 per race also especially if horse is equal to the favored horses and is paying higher odds.


Theres another thing to use that part of my formula and i normally seel this info but i also use a video with it showing it working.

amount of lenghts at finsih - lenghts or plus lenghts the last race your horse ran'

if all your contenders finshed losing lenghts even if they won that race...

and one or two horses gained at end like 2 - 5 lenghts +

drop all the negative finshers take the gaining horses

EXAMPLE horse was behind leader by 2 lenghts finshed 4 lenghts behind winner horse gets a -2 marked next to him and a big fat X

next horse was 5 lenghts behind finshed 3 lenghts behind he gets a +2 marking and circled

next horse was winning by 3 lenghts winds up giving up and holds on by a nose he gets a - 3 or - 2 3/4 marking and a big fat X  i call this holding by last gasp of air.

OLD Saying goes Horse Players Die Bald NOT Broke.

I know guys who go every day and win every day playing thier tracks they know best and i mean the whole day from noon till night come home for dinner maybe and go right back to local OTB about 1/2 mile from my house.

NOT big heavy hitters small bettors $5 - $10 win about $50 a day 6 - 7 days a week Better than SSI money.

Keep going
Interested in learning some strategies in horse racing

Do you only hit the local track?

is a track a track, or is their specific tracks throughout the USA that stand out? In your opinion, what are the top 10????

This looks useful to a novice like myself regarding horse racing.

Thanks for replies guys i know it's a long read but when you have over 40 years of actual use old school pen and paper handicapping and i can almost guarantee you win 4 races out of 10.

Which is 40% and that's great Because your getting ODDS or taking odds not laying them.

Think this way 4 races won you got a 5-1 .....a 2-1  a 3-1 and a 8 -1

YOU won 10$   $4  $6  $16 = $36  you bet all 10 races for $20 you only lost $12 so in about 3 hrs time YOU made $24 which is just under mini wage at $8 per hr...

I'm going to repost everything but do it smaller paragraphs

HANDICAPPING techniques or rules :

1.) DO Not bet on favorites just because they are Favorites NOR don't eliminate because they are favored.

2.) Eliminate any Horse that has been out of action 1 month or longer
this is claimers and allowance horses.

3.) Every Race only has maximum 5 contenders the rest of the horses are just company.

4.) Know your Track biases that is certain post are favorable for sprints and routes plus time of year.

5.) Remove #1 post in sprints with fields of 9 or more horses that have outside speedsters. Unless #1 post has best speed to get clear fast or run under at close 3rd to move at end that is this horse speed is 1:12 . 2  vs the rest of field that runs 1:12  .5 and 1:13 's

6.) DO NOT Bet Girls in races with BOYS at USA tracks because they normally do not run often enough. OF course i mean your reg races not the top handicap races or Graded Races.

7.) Make sure you understand each race qualifications what is 1 in 2 Y and 2 in 3 Y there a different levels in each Claimer or allowance race. DO NOT Bet on Horse that ran in non winners of 1 yr that is in against horses non winners of 2 races in year abbreviated  N1Y and N2Y.

8.) Never bet on old high price claimers in lower class races.
Reason drop in Class happens is because owners tring to recoup money on old 7 yr old Horse. Like why sell a home worth $175,000 for only $50,000 .....same thing with horses when a $20,000 claimer is run against $5000 claimers he will be favored instantly because he shows more money won but that claimer is a phony only placed in 2 races and finished 3rd once in past 6 months.

9.) forget about 1st time lasix horses do a quick track back on these horses and your in the red faster than a train going downhill.

10.) CLASS your horses 1st and utmost. Long arguments over decades with speed boys vs Classing boys guess who cashed more tickets?

11.) know your breeders ; that is the horses in your area known to breed successfull Grass or turf horses. CLASS on The Grass is the term.

Horses in Seattle Slews blood lines are great on off tracks

horses from Affirmed are also great winners but the alyadar bred horses have not produced.

Secreteriate's  offspring not that great very few constant winners.

OK onto next part

Classing horses :

take amount won for year using minimum of 6 races and divide by 6 or how many races horse ran in.
IF horse hasn't run 6 races in one year use both years combined but give less weight to horses rating also if horse has no wins or places or shows in this year YOU leave it at 0 points added.

Horse won $15,000 for year  with 1 win 2 places 3 shows.

 in last 6 races shown in DRF. he has 2 places and 1 show

15,k div. by 6 = 2500$ earned per race  add 200 for 2 places and 50 for the show

horse rating  = 2750 this would be higher priced claimers horses.

probably running in a $20,000 claimer.

 Focus on the winningest post positions in history

they are the #2 #4 #6 # 7

also determine how many horses were in race your horse ran 3rd in

like running 3rd out of 5 horses isn't good at all vs a horse who finished 4th out of 12 horses.

Give a + on your selected horse if he gained lenghts at end +1 or + 2 etc... Give him a - if he lost lengths at end even if he won that race .

say he was ahead at final quarter pole by 3 lengths and held on to win by a head  mark - 2  3/4 

when done all horses you may find only 1 horse at PLUS lengths RUN TO THE window and bet that horse to win or win and place if odds are high even 4-1 you should bet win and place same amount each spot.




NEXT post .................

beware  of favored horses that just ran two races head to head speed duels won race before but finished close 2nd in last. Horse is tired and will run out the money and you may hit the longest shot on board.

Real result long ago Philly Park sprint race top allowance horses in it Billy Tango was favored 3/5 but i seen a tired horse that ran 2 races battles and last race was on muddy track he lost by a head.

I find only two horses matching his speed and class Keen Marine and Sauce Bowl way over the others in race both horses LONG shots  18 -1 15-1  bet both to win and place and boxed exacta $5

they blew field away coming home on 15 length lead finished in order of ratings as i capped them 8 and 5 i won a $258 Exacta the largest ever in my life = $645 win and place $ on both horses paid me 100$'s more and my total cost was $30.


NEVER Say NEVER holds so true in horses I could have a huge trifecta way back in 1980  i spotted 3 horses who always ran together dropping lil bit in class bottom claimers these were

I look up at board they were 3 longest shots on board 25 - 1 35- 1 and 45-1 I said nahhhhhhhhhhhhh Never happen horses were 6 - 11 - 12  and i predicted that order of finish

bet the #6 horse Now we Got em $5 across he was 35-1

#11 was Alabama Gold  cannot rember name of 3rd place #12

any way #6 wins wins but last second who break out of pack in order the 11 and 12 1 length apart SO i'm happy i won hundreds right?

NO kick slammed back of chair in front of me,

 the largest TRI ever to date at that Track over $35,0000 some heavy gambler got it boxing the whole field for a $1 he got whole pool was only winning ticket.

NO i don't often bet exacta's or tri's but sometimes you have to go for it

Watch your Jockey's they all run same way and can turn winners into losers The jockeys who like bust out of gate and take early leads are the ones who wind up losing.

ONLY take these types when they have distinct time edge over others

Also check winds MPH and direction greastest killer of early runners in every track don't care if thorough  breds or Harness horses. remove every rabbit when they are sucking winds in first half of race.

 DO NOT BET on any Horse that was scratched sick from last race.

Because you have no idea if he is fully healthy today.

OR was pulled up in last race due to a sprain eeeeeeeeeekkkkkk this is why horses break down in races and cause injuries.

Watch horses ears in pre race walk if ears are pinned back this is sign horse isn't interested in running today.

prefer horser ears perked up and a sparkle in his eyes   however you need to be at the track to see this the small tv's in OTB's or trying to see on big screens on walls is almost impossible.

yes sometimes a horse wins that you could not put your finger on
like how did your horse lose to two also rans?

shrug it off there's another race to do in 15 mins.

YOU want horses with heart ...in other words that finish thier race strong not horses that look like they hit a tread mill and seem like they are standing still.

Can races be fixed to let another jockey win?

YES and it's legal they others know old Tony needs $ to get house fixed  HE has silght long shot in the race others agree to over run each other burn out their horses and block others from taking lead.

Rare it happens but it does.

Race track officials can do nothing about it because Jockeys are pro's and know they can pull it off.

ok thats about everything u need to strat winning at the ovals.

IF i remember any thing else i'll add it in.

Latley havent been track in months either due to house bills or too busy working.

With all your handicapping knowledge I'm suprised bills are an issue

bump

Hey mods, Box Douglas, look at Mrfixer and tell me this isn't the same guy with the same bullshhht write ups