Most NFL Handicappers Have No Idea What They're Doing

A respected Covers member who just found my article titled
"Most NFL Handicappers Have No Idea What They're Doing"  located here: https://www.edcollins.com/nfl-handicappers-clueless.htm, tole me I was correct on all counts.  He said I needed to post the link for others to see it.

Okay, why not. 

So brace yourselves - given the average intelligence I've seen in this forum recently (yes, you CAN onside kick after a safety... yes, Harbaugh's decision to take points of the board last night WAS the right one) , I'm probably talking about YOU.

Ed-Collins....havent really seen many of your posts or anything but i like you...i like your style lol

I read the whole article and really like it. found it very informative.

Ed-Collins, your website is pretty crazy...  Lots of time on your hands? 

if you don't use money management betting on sports, your gonna end up broke. makes me laugh when i see some posters say they are "all in" on a play. fuckin stupid plain and simple.

Happy to reply.

Good middling opportunities are rare.  It's been my experience (30+ years of gambling, being around sports books, reading hundreds of articles/books, etc. related to all forms of gambling, an accountant by trade (internal auditor, actually), etc., etc., that it's just not worth the time or the effort to even look for middles.

Oh sure, in theory they're great!  In theory they're gold!  A chance to win both bets, with zero chance of losing both. Whoo hoo!  Who wouldn't like that? 

When I was in high school I middle-ed all the time with my classmates.  I'd take the Rams and +6 and then Dallas and -3, for example, and hope Dallas won by 4 or 5.

I would have loved to try to see a counselor try to get me for gambling back then.  "I" wasn't gambling.  "I" couldn't lose.  At worst I'd push.  It was the people who I was better against who were the ones gambling!  Bust them, not me.  Yes, I as BETTING, but I wasn't GAMBLING.

But the reason it worked at all back then is simple... no juice.  Just me and my classmates making the bets.  No bookie.

Alas, rarely did Dallas win by 4 or 5.  Probably most all of my middling efforts, even back there, was time better spent doing something else.

In the real world, the bookie's juice cuts into all your middling profits... and then some.  You have to hit too many middles than you are going to to cover the extra juice you are paying, for the right to try to middle.  When you attempt to middle and don't hit, unlike me in high school example, you do lose.

Yes, 3 and 7 are probably the only two numbers where one should even attempt to middle, so you are spot on there.  But it just doesn't happen often enough.  It just doesn't.

I have pointspread data, along with all game scores, going back 20 full years up until last week, in a colorful and easy to read Excel spreadsheet.  (I'm also a computer programmer.)  Maybe this weekend I can put together some numbers for you.  But I think I already what the result will be...a loss for the player.  I haven't done the actual math in a long time, but I seriously doubt the results will be any different now than they were when I was very active as a handicapper.

Part of the problem is human nature... people remember the time middling worked FOR them, and NOT the dozens of other times it didn't work out.

It absolutely kills me to see people hedge, and hedging and middling can be considered cousins.  As I stated, and as others have stated, if someone is going to hedge they should have just left that last leg off in the first place.  If they did, they would then already have their winnings, and if they STILL liked that last game, THEN they can put all of the profit they won AND their original wager on that final team.  Or, if they want to "show a weekend profit" they can just put a portion of it on that final team, and not the entire thing.  But doing it this way is better than hedging.

This is epic thread on covers that talks about why you should not hedge:

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=740779

I really like and agree with the line I mentioned on my website, that I first read in this thread: "If you find yourself in a position to hedge, you've ALREADY made a fundamental error."

(However, the kicker to all of this is parlays shouldn't be played in the first place, something too many people here are doing far too much of.)

I spent far too many quarters playing Dig Dug. 

There was a 7-11 store near my home that had one, that was open 24 hours.  Ouch.  I can recall far too many times I'd wake up at 2:00 or 3:00 am, and couldn't fall back asleep, and so me and my roommate would go out and play Dig Dug till dawn.  Looking back I can't believe I ever did that, but I did.

KnOwn,

Okay, for the three years worth of data I looked at, I was wrong. (Re: when I said middling is rarely profitable)

I looked at NFL pointspread data for the entire 2009 through 2011 seasons.

I assumed a player was able to successfully "middle" every single game where the pointspread was either exactly 3 or 7 points.  

To clarify, if the pointspread was 3 points I assumed you were able to find a book that allowed you to bet on the favorite and only give -2.5, AND you were also able to find a book where you could bet on the underdog and get +3.5.  Thus, if the favorite won by exactly three points (and it had to be the favorite) you middled the game and won both bets.

I did the same with a 7-point pointspread.  I assume if the spread was exactly 7 points you were able to take the favorite and give just -6.5, and were also able to take the underdog and get +7.5... meaning if the favored team won by 7 points, you won both bets... a successful middle.

(Note: In order for middling to be profitable, you have to win 1 out of every 20 middles.  Otherwise, it's negative EV.)

I also assumed you didn't have to "buy" any half points in either direction... that your juice for all of the games was just 11 to win 10 and not anything greater.

Now, this might all sound impractical and it probably is, but that's irrelevant and beside the point...let's assume you WERE able to do it.  Thus, the question remains... how would you have done, middling these spreads, during the last three years?  Show a profit?  If so, how much?  Show a loss?  Again, how much?

Note:  All pointspread data I used is from the wonderful Sunshine Forecast website, located at https://www.repole.com/sun4cast.

2011:
--------
During the 2011 NFL season, there were 46 games in which the pointspread was exactly three points.  In four of these games the favored team ending up winning by exactly three.  That's enough.  (If the ratio is under 20 to 1, that's good.)  If you had bet $11 to win $10 on all 46 games, you would have lost $1.00 42 times (the juice you paid) but you would have gained $20 4 times,  on the four successful middles, for a profit of $38.00.  (+.8261 EV, or nearly 83 cents profit for every dollar bet.)

During the 2011 NFL season, there were 30 games in which the spread was exactly seven points.  In three of these games the favored team ending up winning by exactly seven.  Again, that's enough.  If you had bet $11 to win $10 on all 30 games, you lose $1.00 27 times, but gain $20 3 times, for a profit of $33.00.  (+1.10 EV)


2010:
--------
49 games with a spread of 3
4 of these games the favored team won, and by exactly 3.
(-$1 x 45) + (+$20 x 4) = +$35.00
(-$1 x 45/49) + (+$20 x 4/49) = +0.7143 EV

24 games with a spread of 7
0 of these games the favored team won, and by exactly 7.
(-$1 x 24) + (+$20 x 0) = -$24.00
(-$1 x 24/24) + (+$20 x 0/24) = -1.00 EV


2009:
--------
37 games with a spread of 3
3 of these games the favored team won, and by exactly 3.
(-$1 x 34) + (+$20.00 x 3) = +$26.00
(-$1 x 34/37) + (+$20 x 3/37) = +0.7027 EV

23 games with a spread of 7
1 of these games the favored team won, and by exactly 7.
(-$1 x 22) + (+$20 x 1) = -$2.00
(-$1 x 22/23) + (+$20 x 1/23) = -.08 EV


Overall:
----------
132 games with a spread of 3
11 of these games the favored team won, and by exactly 3.
(-$1 x 121) + (+$20 x 11) = +$99.00
(-$1 x 121/132) + (+$20 x 11/132) = +0.75 EV

77 games with a spread of 7
4 of these games the favored team won, and by exactly 7.
(-$1 x 73) + (+$20 x 4) = +$7.00
(-$1 x 73/77) + (+$20 x 4/77) = +0.09 EV


Conclusion:  Based upon the past three years worth of data, if you can middle a 3 or a 7 point spread, do it.  You will hit often enough to make it profitable.  (You wouldn't have liked your results in 2009 and 2010 on 7-point games, but overall you are still winning 9 cents on every dollar bet over the three years.) 

The three-point spread is especially profitable, assuming you're able to middle.  Overall, the player gains 75 cents on every dollar bet.  That's huge.

Hi Ed,

the site used to be so much better. I learned alot from the cappers that used to troll this site now its a vast wasteland with a few sightings of life

so why should this be any different than how people in general are ignorant of most things in everyday life, such as diet, banking, investing, medicine, crime, politics.......... ?

Read your article Ed - overall very good.

A couple of points I would debate slightly - but overall you are writing WAY above the average covers posters head.

Good job..

Good article.  I was glad to see you're first point:  There is no such thing as a trap game.  I did a thread on that once and was absolutely attacked as a square....noob....donkey....etc.  You are absolutely right, the books are just looking for equal action on both sides.  

great read, links informative too

Ed-Collins...I really appreciate your replies and actually looking in to it for me.  I think I could learn a lot from you because I am profitable in PICKING games (as in I pick winners at about 60% or above every year) but I have a lot to learn in the mathematics of sports betting and I think I could improve my winnings by alot the more I learn.

Thanks for the lesson. 

one of the best reads I've seen in quite some time.  Greatly appreciated Ed-Collins.. Learning a lot  

Can you please post some plays. 

If you want a solid capper look up bettingresource.com  Their picks with their money management is a very good long term sports investment.