My betting system

Question

Hello,I created my own system for handicapping NFL games at the start of the 2014 season. In my first season I was surprisingly able to create a very good season, hitting 66.3% of winners, going 73 wins, 37 losses. Last season was I lost a lot of really close games but was still able to have a profitable season, hitting 58.0%, 79 wins, 57 losses. Total over first two seasons 152 wins, 94 losses (61.7%). All picks are for $1.90 lines, no ML&#x27;s. I give away picks for free and got about 500 followers who use my picks. I understand handicappers who can hit anything over 55% are very good, I&#x27;m wondering if my record would be highly regarded to start a subscription or should I keep giving away picks for another season or more to see if I can maintain 55-60%?

jeffk8 · Answer

Hello,I created my own system for handicapping NFL games at the start of the 2014 season. In my first season I was surprisingly able to create a very good season, hitting 66.3% of winners, going 73 wins, 37 losses. Last season was I lost a lot of really close games but was still able to have a profitable season, hitting 58.0%, 79 wins, 57 losses. Total over first two seasons 152 wins, 94 losses (61.7%). All picks are for $1.90 lines, no ML&#x27;s. I give away picks for free and got about 500 followers who use my picks. I understand handicappers who can hit anything over 55% are very good, I&#x27;m wondering if my record would be highly regarded to start a subscription or should I keep giving away picks for another season or more to see if I can maintain 55-60%?

jeffk8 · Answer

&#x2B;44.32 units

JerryWrasse · Answer

People sell picks because they can&#x27;t make money picking games in the long run.

JerryWrasse · Answer

Good luck this year

BonLuu · Answer

loser

jeffk8 · Answer

Yeah I know. I think I&#x27;ll see how I go this season. If I can hit 55%&#x2B; for 3 seasons in a row I&#x27;ll think about it. Definitely won&#x27;t be some flashy website like everyone else. Ideally I&#x27;d like a close group of followers that know 100% that I&#x27;m not a scammer

jeffk8 · Answer

Huh? Can you elaborate on this?

mafioso · Answer

Let me help you out hereWe come hereWell, Most of us who arent logcottageWe come here to contribute to the forumWe analyze game matchupswe discuss who the public is onFishy lineswhat the bookies have bookedeverythingwe do not have any intention of going tout or selling picks one day.and most 55% cappers dont stand a chance for selling picksthe big game marketers are putting out magazine articles website montages of them going 8-1 last 9 plays and all that other BSthats what people get baited into

jeffk8 · Answer

Thanks, great information. I&#x27;m definitely not selling picks or anything, I&#x27;m really intrigued about handicapping and just trying to gain as much information as possible.

mafioso · Answer

Then you will do well hereBeat in mindThis is one of the few places on earth where you will not only deal with trolls for losing gamesBut you will actually somehow end up with hating losers *insert log cottage* trolling you for winning

UnclePuff · Answer

Just an idea here..... enter the King of Covers NFL contest make your picks there . That way you have a documented record of your plays that nobody can argue with . It is free.

footballsmart · Answer

You should play the Westgate Super Contest every year. If you can hit somewhat above 60% success, you will make a lot of money. Not to dissuade you, you may have a great approach to handicapping, but I have seriously studied over 30 years of NFL games from many many angles, and you have way too little data. Having said that, what you have done over two years is indeed amazing. Here are some statistics for you. This record of 152 wins out of 246 means statistically that you can be 95% confident that the true success falls between 55.7% and 67.9%. Or if you really wanna get tough on yourself, you can be 99% certain that this represents a success rate between 53.8% and 69.8%. Damn impressive if true. But you need about 1000 more games of live success before anyone will care :-) ... and it needs to be documented. Good Luck!

jeffk8 · Answer

Amazing post, thanks. Out of curiosity, what would be a highly respected record after 1000 games? I know anything above 65% is unrealistic and smart cappets know this. But is it realistic to still have a record of around 60%?

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