NBA Algorithm Picks - Day 9 of 10 (37-29 so far, 56.2% win rate)

A nice rebound night last night at 3-1 brings our overall total so far to 37-29 and brings us just above the 56% win rate, above our long term target of 55% win, so we're right on pace. Generally a 55% win rate is used as the dividing line between the 'sharps' and the 'squares' in the eyes of the books. Any player that consistently (i.e. at least 100+ bets, preferably 250+) wins at a 55%+ rate is generally considered "sharp" by the bookies. This can get you banned by some of the softer ones, but there's always sharp books (typically Pinnacle) that are happy to accept bets from sharps. It's part of their business model, in essence they "sell" the sharps softer lines at low limits , and in exchange they get the informational advantage the sharps give them by betting them, so by the time they open the lines with max limits to the public, they're confident they're more "right" than any of the other books, which is why Pinnacle's lines are always used as benchmarks. Pinnacle must has their own algorithm that decides when to classify a better as "sharp", and when they do you'll be able to bet on games before they put them out to the public, which is why I'm able to make my bets at the opening overnight lines,  even when Pinnacle usually won't offer their full slate of games until 9-10 AM to the public. That usually gives me several points of value on any given day as the lines more often than not move towards ours by the close.

I'm getting off topic though, my broad point is, with a consistent 55% win rate over the long term, the only thing limiting the amount of money you can make is how much you can afford to stake on each game (consistent with the basic principles of risk management, of course, and only risking between 2-5% of your total bankroll on any given game)

To recap:

Overall: 37-29 (16-17 spreads, 21-13 O/U)

Day 1: 8-5 (4-3 spreads, 4-2 O/U)

Day 2: 3-1 (1-1 spreads, 2-0 O/U)

Day 3: 9-5 (4-3 spreads, 5-2 O/U)

Day 4: 5-5 (3-1 spreads, 2-4 O/U)

Day 5: 2-5 (0-4 spreads, 2-2 O/U)

Day 6: 7-7 (3-4 spreads, 4-3 O/U)

Day 7: 3-1 (1-1 spreads, 2-2 O/U)

Day 8: TBP

For confirmation of the results so far, click on my name to see my post history and click on the thread for each day. Make note of the timestamps to confirm that all picks were made well before each game and make sure the tally on each day's thread matches the recap above. I can assure you they do, I'm just doing it this way so you don't need to take my word for it.

Here are the lines for tomorrow, Nov 17 (Day 9). As always once the opening lines come out later tonight, I'll post the picks based on those on this thread:

WAS @ MIA ------>  MIA -6/204

GSW @ CLE-------> GSW -9.5/215

LAC @ MEM -------> LAC -4.5/212.5

SAS @ MIN --------> SAS -2/216.5

PHI @ DEN -------->  DEN -5/203

TOR @ UTA -------> UTA -11.5/214

A quick programming note:

As we get towards the end of this 10 day experiment, it might be worthwhile thinking if you see value in the information you've been getting in these threads. I encourage anyone who hasn't to click my name and read through all the threads I've made (there should only be 10, one for each day). Not just the picks, but also some of the concepts/insights that I've posted. Ask yourself if that kind of information is useful to your analysis and is consistent with your own philosophies on betting.  After day 10 on here, there won't be any more free picks, as this should be considered the free trial period. To get the lines after that, you'll need to subscribe to my Patreon account, you can find more information about it in the Website Promotions section of the forums (or just search me on Patreon as 'as TheBetGuy'). Not only will you get the algorithm lines every night before the Vegas lines come out, there will be a wealth of information about proper bet management, how to set up your own system based off the algorithms lines, and there will be an open discussion format, where I'll make regular posts sharing my own knowledge, tips, advice, gleaned from many years of success and failures as a capper, definitely valuable information I wish someone had told me when I was starting out. I'll also be happy to answer any questions any subscribers have, either about my system, or help them develop their own. Of course I'll never divulge the nuts and bolts of my own algorithm, but I'll give much more insight into how it works, as well as advice on how to build your own, both from a statistical standpoint (how to cut through the noise and properly interpret data) as well as a technical standpoint (how to build out your algorithm and automate it on an excel spreadsheet, including automatically importing the public stats as soon as the game is over, and instantly recalculating the probabilities for any given matchup. All you'll need to do is select which teams you want probabilities for in the dropdown menu you'll build on the sheet).

I'm still trying to figure out the subscription service thing, mostly in terms of pricing, but I'm going to start low at first to build a following, and then reassess the pricing. But since I'm only going to accept a limited number of followers (theoretically, if the subscriber base got too big, any edge that was gleaned by the algorithm would be wiped out by all the followers betting them, making the service not as useful) once that is reached, the price can, and almost certainly will, go up. But for now, the pricing is set at peanuts compared to the value of the information, and any users that come over from here will get that price locked in for 3 months.

In any case, no need to decide now, still got a few more days to go to make up your mind. If the end of 10 days doesn't get us to 100 bets overall, I'll go another day or two until we get there, as that's the point where we can be reasonably certain that whatever the results are are legitimate and not due to luck. The odds of achieving a 55%+ win rate in a 50% probability event (the theoretical probability of a correct line) over 100 bets is roughly around 2-5%. So if at the end of 100 bets here, if we have a 55%+ win rate, there's about a 2-5% chance that I'm full of shit and just got those results by luck. Which means there's a 95-98% chance that I've actually developed a system that can consistently make money in the markets, and you'd be getting access to that system for almost nothing by subscribing. As a capper, I'd be all over those odds in a hearbeat.

@TheBetGuy

 Here comes the tout looking for money!

Go to another site... your kind is not wanted here.

And...all his lines are inflated to make his record appear to be better.

Go back and read his threads from day 1 and you will see how transparent he has been about his lines. You will also see that he has said from the beginning that yes he does sell his picks. He has never tried to hide that.

@TheBetGuy

 I might join just to learn how to automatically import the data to an excel sheet.  I've been doing in manually and its a big hassle...

@BBGunzz

 You're embarrassing yourself at this point buddy...

Lol ok. Feel free to read his posts to see how wrong you are. Have a nice day. 

Are you off on one day or something---today is 11/18

@TheBetGuy

 blah blah blah...if you are such a big believer in capitalism than go pay somewhere to advertise what you are selling.

Guess what tout...this forum is set up for people to share information on betting.

This site is not for "cheap" capitalists like yourself to tout and sell picks....so quick trying to pretend you are "innocent".

Go spend some of your money that you have "won" from your picks and advertise somewhere.

If your system is so good, pay to advertise it.  Have some guts.