Was checking suuma's blue bird feed and saw that he posted his mnf write-up from week 1. He had Vikings -3. Are all his write-ups this season like this? Can someone confirm? He started the season 4-2 it seems.
There is a big discrepancy between my Power Rating and the market. Our advantage is that the market recognizes Sam Bradford as a lower-tier quarterback, hence the average Power ranks for the Vikings across the board. I make this line a -9 for the Vikings (-5.5 on a neutral & 3.5 pts HFA). This is a difference of 5 points to the Vegas line.
The Saints have no defense, period. They got a weak defensive line, weak LB corps and weak though talented corners. Marshon Lattimore, PJ Williams and Ken Crawley are likely going to start Nickel package at corner. Maybe Kenny Vaccaro will also take Nickel duties in the slot. Lattimore, Crawley and Williams have a combined 585 defensive snaps in the NFL. I was very high on Williams and he had a great preseason last year before another injury got him sidelined again. He and Lattimore might be a talented corner tandem but they will need tremendous time to gel and develop – CB is a tough position to develop. Marcus Peters is one of the few exceptions. This is probably the easiest defense Sam Bradford and company will face this year. Without a quality pass rush, Bradford will pick the Saints defense apart from start to finish which also opens up some running lanes. Diggs and Thielen should be able to easily terrify the secondary and Dalvin Cook will make those LBs miss in space. Putting up 30+ is a MUST for the Vikings.
On the flip side you have arguable one of the best defenses in the NFL playing against a very good offense but the Vikes should be able to get enough stops to enter the fourth quarter with a comfortable lead at home. LT stud Terron Armstead will miss some early games which means that rookie Ryan Ramczyk will play a tackle spot against Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen. That screams a lot of pressure is going to get to Drew Brees over that side. Center Max Unger will likely start after he had surgery in May and missed most of the training camp. He might not be 100%. Overall, the Vikings defensive line should consistently win their matchup against the Saints’ offensive line. The Saints are definitely going to score but I do not see how they keep the score within a touchdown at Minnesota.
Update: Saints WR Willie Snead is suspended for three games which is good for us. The connection to him has a high success rate. On the flip side, the Vikes traded for CB Tramaine Brock who is an upgrade for the secondary – he will likely play CB2. Rhodes will be on Thomas and Brock plus safety shading on Ginn. Newman most likely in the slot, Waynes back to dime packages. That’s pretty solid and other Saints WRs need to step up.
STRONG LEAN: Minnesota Vikings up to -7
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Was checking suuma's blue bird feed and saw that he posted his mnf write-up from week 1. He had Vikings -3. Are all his write-ups this season like this? Can someone confirm? He started the season 4-2 it seems.
There is a big discrepancy between my Power Rating and the market. Our advantage is that the market recognizes Sam Bradford as a lower-tier quarterback, hence the average Power ranks for the Vikings across the board. I make this line a -9 for the Vikings (-5.5 on a neutral & 3.5 pts HFA). This is a difference of 5 points to the Vegas line.
The Saints have no defense, period. They got a weak defensive line, weak LB corps and weak though talented corners. Marshon Lattimore, PJ Williams and Ken Crawley are likely going to start Nickel package at corner. Maybe Kenny Vaccaro will also take Nickel duties in the slot. Lattimore, Crawley and Williams have a combined 585 defensive snaps in the NFL. I was very high on Williams and he had a great preseason last year before another injury got him sidelined again. He and Lattimore might be a talented corner tandem but they will need tremendous time to gel and develop – CB is a tough position to develop. Marcus Peters is one of the few exceptions. This is probably the easiest defense Sam Bradford and company will face this year. Without a quality pass rush, Bradford will pick the Saints defense apart from start to finish which also opens up some running lanes. Diggs and Thielen should be able to easily terrify the secondary and Dalvin Cook will make those LBs miss in space. Putting up 30+ is a MUST for the Vikings.
On the flip side you have arguable one of the best defenses in the NFL playing against a very good offense but the Vikes should be able to get enough stops to enter the fourth quarter with a comfortable lead at home. LT stud Terron Armstead will miss some early games which means that rookie Ryan Ramczyk will play a tackle spot against Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen. That screams a lot of pressure is going to get to Drew Brees over that side. Center Max Unger will likely start after he had surgery in May and missed most of the training camp. He might not be 100%. Overall, the Vikings defensive line should consistently win their matchup against the Saints’ offensive line. The Saints are definitely going to score but I do not see how they keep the score within a touchdown at Minnesota.
Update: Saints WR Willie Snead is suspended for three games which is good for us. The connection to him has a high success rate. On the flip side, the Vikes traded for CB Tramaine Brock who is an upgrade for the secondary – he will likely play CB2. Rhodes will be on Thomas and Brock plus safety shading on Ginn. Newman most likely in the slot, Waynes back to dime packages. That’s pretty solid and other Saints WRs need to step up.
not worth the price, good insight and great write ups but I think his record was .500 or just above that last season. Regardless we're all just guessing when it comes to betting.
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not worth the price, good insight and great write ups but I think his record was .500 or just above that last season. Regardless we're all just guessing when it comes to betting.
Hes been consistently over 55% for years. Now he's getting paid more for it? It's honestly not a bad deal. He's a high volume guy too. It's not like he's putting out 2 games a week. Seems to be going with prime time games and at least a handful on sundays. 55% going 80-100 bets a year is impressive. Assuming he stays close to as consistent, that's a small price to pay and you'll make it back 10 fold if you're betting 100 or so a game.
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Hes been consistently over 55% for years. Now he's getting paid more for it? It's honestly not a bad deal. He's a high volume guy too. It's not like he's putting out 2 games a week. Seems to be going with prime time games and at least a handful on sundays. 55% going 80-100 bets a year is impressive. Assuming he stays close to as consistent, that's a small price to pay and you'll make it back 10 fold if you're betting 100 or so a game.
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